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New British Corona virus limits will test optimism for economic recovery | Larry Elliott | business

It’s unwise to argue that the U.S. or Eurozone economies won’t do much better than what was seen in the spring of 2020, as records broke, but what’s really surprising is nuclear war. , Meteor strikes, pan-continental climate catastrophes or more serious epidemics than Covid-19.

It is worth considering for a moment how frightening the recent economic news is. The UK is slightly behind the U.S. and Eurozone and does not report growth figures for the second quarter until August 12th, but it is already known that the economy has dropped by about 25% in two months in March and April. Despite increased activity in May and June, the activity will probably be about 15% lower than the pre-crisis level in early Q3.

It’s a similar story elsewhere. Over the past three weeks, 15 years of growth in the eurozone has disappeared, but it was considered minor good news when the second quarter decline in GDP in the US and Germany last week was limited to 9.5% and 10.1% respectively. To express a better-than-expected figure in perspective, a quarter of Americans were unemployed and were more comfortable than they appeared in the early 1930s, when the Weimar Republic was on its last leg.

Despite all the depression, there are people who are happy and divided into three groups. The first category consists of people who say there is no connection between the ever-expanding economy and well-being and it is time to stop growth. There have been many studies charting the level of happiness during GDP growth, but now there will be a ton of data showing whether there will be a smaller economy, personal income and more free time (some involuntary) to create a more satisfying and stable society.

The government, even the government of the post-domestic government, was forced to intervene at the same level as the war.

Then there is a group that says the corona virus has changed everything and the world will never be the same again. Of course, this was mentioned during the 2008-09 global financial crisis, but this time there is something more important about that claim. It’s part of the story, but it’s not that the country’s role has expanded. In addition, small countries, sound money and globalization models are being questioned by the plague as a whole.

Even the right-wing government was forced to engage in war-like interventions, such as paying wage subsidies, providing 100% loan guarantees to businesses, nationalizing or acquiring equity in key sectors of the economy. For one example, modern currency theory broadly states that a country with many currencies can print a lot of money to cover state spending until inflation starts to start. Banking and financial ministries. Now the question is not whether policymakers are taking MMT seriously, but whether they are using MMT in a quiet place.

However, in the mid-1940s and mid 1970s, there were two important changes to the political economy of the last century, both of which have been painful for a long time. The system’s inertia does not guarantee that the challenge to the current state will succeed.

Whether it is not or not depends on whether the third category of cheerful optimism is right. Well-known in the financial market, the group believes that second-quarter growth figures are not so important now that they are the result of a one-time response to a health situation. There was a deep recession when the economy was completely shut down, but as soon as the restrictions were relaxed and the pace accelerated since then, recovery began. The stocks recovered in February and March, as many people in the city and Wall Street were convinced that the central bank would create a V-shaped recovery due to funding and increased government spending by financial ministries.

Like the growth-most-if-happy papers, this concept will be tested in the coming months. In the UK, there have been signs of retail sales, for example, that the economy is gaining momentum.

However, this is largely overwhelmed by factors that indicate a much slower recovery or a double deep recession. Initially, large numbers of economies were closed, including the UK’s night economy.

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Subsequently, as the government confusing the economy, the Prime Minister someday announced a easing of restrictions and the next day offset some. The likelihood of getting infected with Covid-19 or dying of a virus is much lower than in March or April, but the flip-flops in Whitehall make this virus unknown. The impression given by the ministers is that the economy will take longer to return to normal, and the results will be higher.

It’s unfortunate that the Treasury chose this moment when quarantine restrictions were imposed on travelers returning from Spain, face masks were mandated for a wide range of activities, and restrictions were strengthened to start winding in many parts of northern England. Down its furlough plan.

When Covid-19 first appeared, the government that messed up with a health emergency is now creating complete Horlicks of the economic crisis. Who knows more confusion can eventually lead to a happier and friendlier UK, but one sure fact is that there will be many misfortunes first.

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