Five economic news that could affect the UK election outcome | economics

Rishi Sunak's chances of beating the odds at July's general election will depend on voters accepting the argument that the tough decisions made since he became chancellor are paying off.

These claims will be tested over the next six weeks as all economic news is scrutinized more closely than usual for evidence that Britain's tentative economic recovery is gaining momentum or is starting to falter.

There are five key dates included in the 10-day period to pay attention to in the middle of the campaign.

11 June: Labor market figures

This could be one of the trickiest pieces of economic news for Sunak to tackle, as the last official data set showed unemployment rising and jobs falling. Despite this evidence of a cooling labor market, corporate earnings growth remained strong at an annual rate of 5.9%. The better news for the Prime Minister is that wages have risen more strongly than prices over the past 10 months, improving living standards.

The Conservatives will tell you that four million jobs have been created since 2010 and that workers' lives are getting better.

Labor will say: For the first time in recent history, voters will be worse off at the end of Congress than when it began.

People are crossing the Millennium Bridge over the River Thames, with the London financial district visible in the distance. Photograph: Henry Nicholls/AFP/Getty Images June 12: April growth figures.

One of the reasons Sunak decided to call an election was unexpectedly strong growth figures for the first three months of 2024, which saw national output 0.6% higher than the last three months of 2023 and ended Britain's brief, shallow recession. Gross domestic product rose 0.2% between March and April, taking quarterly growth from 0.6% to 0.8%, said Paul Dales, chief UK economist at consultancy Capital Economics. It was expected to rise.

The Conservatives will say: Britain is growing faster than any other major developed country.

Labor will say this: Britain's growth and productivity record over the past 14 years has been dismal.

June 19: Annual inflation through May.

This is probably the most important economic news of the campaign period, given Sunak's claims that Britain's cost of living problem has now been solved. The annual inflation rate for all items fell from 3.2% in March to 2.3% in April, and is expected to fall further in May. This is partly due to consumer prices rising 0.7% in May, a rise that is unlikely to be repeated this year. Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's chief UK economist, sees the headline inflation rate falling to 2% compared to the government's target. Services inflation, which the Bank of England is closely monitoring, will fall to 5.4% from 5.9%, she said, Skarica said.

The Conservatives will say: Our strong measures have brought stability to the economy.

Labor will say: Prices are 20% higher than when the cost-of-living crisis began and are still rising.

The UK's annual inflation rate fell to 2.3% in April and is expected to fall further in May. Photo: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images June 20: Bank of England interest rate decision.

The Bank of England has raised interest rates 14 times between December 2021 and August 2023, from 0.1% to 5.25%, and speculation was growing that the Monetary Policy Committee would begin to cut borrowing costs when it meets in June. In theory, there is nothing to stop banks from cutting interest rates during an election campaign, but doing so would require strong evidence. The city sees little chance of a rate cut next month, with attention now focused on whether the bank will cut rates at its first meeting after the August election.

Conservatives will say: Interest rates will soon go down because we've fixed the economy.

Labor will say homeowners are paying for Tory mismanagement through higher mortgage rates.

The Bank of England raised interest rates 14 times between December 2021 and August 2023. Photo: Maureen McLean/Shutterstock21 June: Retail Sales and Public Finance

This is the last of the five major economic events between now and the election. Although it is less important than the other four events, it is not without interest. The strong retail sales figures are consistent with recent evidence that consumers are feeling more confident about their finances and the economy as a whole. Declining retail sales mean no feel-good factor.

The poor state of public finances helps explain why Sunak called an early election. That's because Jeremy Hunt has now planned to cut national insurance premiums for a third time in an early autumn statement. The size of May's deficit will have little impact on the election, but it will provide guidance on the difficult choices a Conservative or Labor prime minister will face in the next parliament. The deficit in May 2023 was a little over 14 billion won.

Conservatives will say: life is getting better, don't let Labor ruin it.

Labor will say: You're paying higher taxes because the Conservatives crashed the car. Take the key.

Dales said overall economic news over the next six weeks would be reasonably positive, but would not have a major impact. People's views about the economy are formed and shaped, he says. They won't change that much.

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