Sometimes US and UK policies seem to be in lockdown. Not this year.

A conservative British prime minister sets the date for a long-awaited vote in early summer and the United States follows with a momentous presidential election a few months later. It happened in 2016, when Brits voted for Brexit and Americans elected Donald J. Trump, and it’s happening again today.

Political soothsayers might be tempted to study the results of Britain's July 4 general election for clues about how the United States might vote on November 5. In 2016, after all, the country's shock vote to leave the European Union came to be seen as a canary in the coal mine for Mr. Trump's surprise victory later that year.

But this time, the past may not be prologue. British voters appear poised to elect the opposition Labor Party, perhaps by an overwhelming margin, over embattled conservatives, while in the United States a Democratic president, Joseph R. Biden Jr., is in a fight air with Mr. Trump and his Republican Party. To party.

We currently find ourselves in a very different political situation from that of the United States, said Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester. The Conservatives have been in power for 14 years, Brexit is no longer a political issue and there is no British equivalent of Mr Trump.

To the extent that there's a common theme on both sides of the Atlantic, said Ben Ansell, a professor of comparative democratic institutions at Oxford University, it's really bad to be in power.

Obviously, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak decided to call an election a few months early because he does not expect British economic news to improve by the fall. Trailing Labor by more than 20 percentage points in the polls, Mr Sunak, analysts say, is betting the Tories can cut their losses by confronting voters now.

While there is little evidence that the US political calendar played a role in Mr Sunak's decision, holding an election on July 4 has the incidental benefit of avoiding any overlap. If he had waited until mid-November, as political punters predicted, he would have risked being swept away the day after the American results.

Political analysts were already wondering whether a victory for Mr Trump would benefit the Conservatives or Labor. Some have speculated that Mr. Sunak could use the disruption of another Trump presidency as a reason to stick with the Conservatives, if only because they might get along better with Mr. Trump than with Labor leader Keir Starmer.

It no longer matters: Britain will have a new Parliament, and quite possibly a new Prime Minister, before the Republicans and Democrats even hold their congresses.

The results of the British elections could nevertheless be rich in lessons for the United States, analysts believe. Countries remain politically in sync on many issues, from anxiety over immigration to anger over inflation to clashes over social and cultural issues.

Imagine a Conservative collapse, like in Canada in 1993, Professor Ansell said, referring to a federal election in which the ruling Progressive Conservative Party was virtually wiped out by the Liberals and even sidelined by the Party. Reform as Canada's leading party. right-wing party.

Britain's Conservatives face a toned-down version of this threat from Reform UK, a party co-founded by populist Nigel Farage, which has an anti-immigration message. In the latest poll by YouGov, a market research company, Reform was on 14 percent, while the Conservatives were on 22 percent and Labor on 44 percent.

According to Professor Ansell, the rise of the Reform Party in the UK could be a sign that populism is back on the rise in the UK, and could be an omen and omen that the same thing could happen in the UK. fall in the United States.

Conversely, he added, significant gains by Britain's center-left Labor parties, as well as the Liberal Democrats and Greens, could reassure Democrats that their better-than-expected results in the midterm and special elections were not a coincidence but part of a larger global picture. swing.

Some right-wing critics blame the Conservative Party's decline on its move away from the economic nationalism that fueled the Brexit vote and the party's 2019 victory under Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Conservatives' embrace of liberal free-market policies has, they say, put them out of step with Mr. Trump's MAGA legions, as well as right-wing movements in Italy and the Netherlands.

Whatever you think of Trump, he's unstable, he's a danger to democracy, if you look at his poll numbers, he's doing much better than conservatives, said Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor at the University of Kent.

Part of the difference, of course, is that Mr. Trump has been out of office for nearly four years, meaning that, unlike conservatives, he is not being held responsible for the crisis of Cost of life. Nor is he blamed for failing to control the border, since Mr Biden is in the United States and Mr Sunak in Britain.

In his attempt to mobilize the Conservative base, Mr Sunak echoes the anti-immigration themes of Brexit campaigners in 2016. He spent much of his term promoting a plan to put asylum seekers on flights one way to Rwanda. Expensive, much criticized and unrealized, this project has many points in common with Mr. Trump's border wall.

This was sort of our Trump moment, said Kim Darroch, former British ambassador to Washington. But given the legacy Keir Starmer will inherit, it cannot be ruled out that someone from the right wing of the Conservative Party will exploit a weak Labor government to return to power in four or five years.

For all its totemic importance, Brexit has hardly been an issue in 2024. Analysts have said that reflects voter exhaustion, a recognition among conservatives that leaving the European Union has hurt the economy British, and an acceptance that Britain will not soon join.

You're not allowed to talk about Brexit because both parties are terrified of what would happen if you took the dog off its leash, said Chris Patten, a former Hong Kong governor and conservative politician who chaired the party in 1992, when he overcame an electoral deficit. to score a surprise victory over Labor.

Mr Patten said he was skeptical the Conservatives would be able to achieve it this time, given deep voter fatigue with the party and differences between Mr Sunak and John Major, Prime Minister in 1992.

Conservative MPs appear to share this sense of futility: almost 80 of them have chosen not to run for their seats, an exodus that includes Michael Gove, who once fought to become party leader and was at the heart of almost all Conservative-led governments. since David Camerons in 2010.

Frank Luntz, an American political strategist who lived and worked in Britain, said elections in Britain and the United States were driven less by ideological battles than by widespread frustration with the status quo.

We are in a completely different world than in 2016, Luntz said. But what both sides of the Atlantic have in common is a feeling that can be summed up in one word: enough is enough.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/25/world/europe/uk-general-election-2024.html The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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