Adam Boulton: Could this be Europe's 'Trump moment'? Why the EU vote matters for the UK | world news

2024 is known as an election year. Because during these 12 months, more voters in more countries than ever before will exercise their right to vote to choose who will govern them.

That is the march of democracy. Although no one in Russia could have been sure when President Putin would be re-elected.

Britain is campaigning for a general election that could end 14 years of Conservative rule. Americans will decide whether Donald Trump returns to the White House in November.

In India, victorious Prime Minister Narendra Modi is licking his wounds after his Hindu nationalist BJP performed poorly in the world's largest election.

Right now, the world's second largest election is underway. This weekend and just over the seas around the UK.

Despite the UK's participation until 2019, it has attracted little interest here. This despite the fact that previous elections of this kind have seen Nigel Farage survive as a political force. And the consequences may affect the UK most directly, at least in the short term.

Image: European Parliament elections have been underway in the Netherlands since Thursday. Photo: AP

This election is also part of a unique experiment. Voters in many countries are electing members of the world's only supranational parliament, where lawmakers from different countries are grouped into blocs based on political ideology.

More information about the European Parliament

From Thursday, around 400 million citizens across the European Union's 27 member states had the opportunity to elect a total of 750 members of the European Parliament (EP).

Fittingly, EP elections began in the Netherlands on June 6, the 80th anniversary of D-Day, with Ireland voting on Friday and most other member states, including Belgium, which holds general elections on Sunday, voting over the weekend.

This seems appropriate, since the Parliament is designed to peacefully unite democratic Europe. It is ironic that some of the political parties expected to perform well this year are linked to Franco, Mussolini, and Hitler.

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10:22 From Wednesday: 'The extreme right is destroying all rights in Europe'

The Parliament is the only EU institution that is directly elected. It has weaker powers than most national assemblies. EU policy is overseen by the Council of Ministers, the elected leaders of individual member states. Planning is carried out by a committee, an appointed bureaucratic body.

The parliament not only debates, modifies and enacts proposals, but also oversees the commission's budget, actions and appointments by the current president, Ursula von der Leyen.

Many politicians move between the EP and the National Assembly. Regardless of whether you run for office or not, the results of this election often have a huge impact on what happens in your home country.

For example, during the UK's accession to the EU, Nigel Farage failed seven times to win the most votes to become a member of the Westminster Parliament.

However, thanks to proportional representation, he continued to serve as MP for South East England from June 1999 to January 2020, when the UK left the EU as a result of the Brexit referendum. He made the most of the salary and expenses he could receive from his EP.

Image: Nigel Farage served as an MEP from 1999 to 2019, despite never having been a member of the House of Commons. Photo: AP

Farage has the distinction of leading two British political parties to victory in the EP election, with very serious consequences.

In 2014, UKIP defeated Labor and the Conservatives, embarrassing then-Conservative leader David Cameron and forcing an EU referendum.

Five years later, in 2019, when Britain had not yet completed its exit from the European Union, Farage led his party, then called the Brexit Party, to first place in the European Parliament elections. The Conservatives came in fifth place. Theresa May stepped down and Boris Johnson became Prime Minister with the slogan “Get Brexit Done”.

The UK is no longer a member of the EU. We have our own general elections where we elect members of the National Assembly, not members of the National Assembly. Farage's latest political party, Reform UK, is running in the general election.

The radical right is on the rise across Europe. Europe's 'Donald Trump moment' is being discussed amidst the cost of living issue.

Opinion polls widely predict that populist parties will gain ground. If they do, the exodus between right-wing rival blocs will have implications for issues such as the war in Ukraine, mass migration, climate change and trade.

Whoever wins the UK election will look to greater cooperation with its European neighbors on all issues.

Image: Giorgia Meloni, Italian Prime Minister and leader of Fratelli di Italia, attends a European Parliament election rally. Photo: AP

The results of the European Parliament elections in France, Germany and Italy will have a major impact on how the internal politics of Britain's key allies develop.

The contest can also be seen as a battle between two queens for the soul of Euro-populism, whether pro-Russian or pro-NATO: Marine Le Pen and Giorgia of the French National Union (NR) (formerly the National Front). Meloni, Italian Prime Minister and leader of Fratelli di Italia (FdI).

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AFD) is expected to take second place, ahead of Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats.

Under the EP, led by the charismatic Jordan Bardella, NR is expected to win 33% of the vote in France, far more than President Emmanuel Macron's party. And Le Pen is already the most popular candidate ahead of the 2027 presidential election, when President Macron will have to step down.

Image: Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella attend a national rally event ahead of the European Parliament elections. Photo: AP

Radical right parties are already in power or supporting governments in eight EU countries and are expected to return in Austria's elections scheduled for this month.

Overall, populist parties could end up with more lawmakers than the Socialists and Democrats, who are fighting the center-right European People's Party (EPP) that has long controlled parliament.

But it is unclear whether the warring right-wing forces will unite to act or cooperate with the mainstream EPP, which is made up of traditional conservatives and Christian Democrats.

They share in common ethnic nationalism, obscurantism, Islamophobia, hostility towards migrants, net zero, climate change and suspicion of multilateral institutions, including the EU, UN and NATO. They depend on the economy, that is, on free markets and state intervention, and above all on Russia.

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2:05 Five reasons why the EU elections matter

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Giorgia Meloni's FdI, Poland's Law and Justice party and other European conservative and reformist groups have strong support for Ukraine.

But Le Pen's FR-dominated Identity and Freedom group supports an agreement to hand over territory to Russia, while the AfD, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban and Austria's Freedom Party are openly part of Putin's fan club.

The radical right will only be able to exert full influence in parliament if Meloni and Le Pen can reach an agreement on issues such as Ukraine, or whether von der Leyen should be re-elected as committee chair.

Image: The European Parliament will decide whether Ursula von der Leyen will continue as Commission President. Photo: AP

That seems unlikely, but that hasn't stopped von der Leyen from visiting the EU to seek support and make clear that Europe will place less priority on green policies in the next parliament than in the current one.

The largest group in the EP recommends who should be committee chair. In practice, state leaders in Congress typically elected their own candidates.

Increasing factionalism prevents the EP from having the desired influence. Ten groups have formal status providing funding and committee positions, and there are a further three informal groups.

After this election, there may not emerge a sufficiently dominant group to assume a leadership role.

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The divisions in the EU mainstream right are partly a legacy of Britain's membership of the EU. The ECR was only born when David Cameron ignored Angela Merkel and pulled the Conservatives out of the EPP.

Britain in or out, neither the UK nor the EU can be shielded from the winds of radical right-wing populism.

We here may be too busy to pay much attention to the world's second largest election. We cannot ignore the consequences.

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