US Elections 2024: Seven key House races to watch | House of Representatives

Much attention has been paid to the rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in November, but the results of the down-ballot election will determine whether the winner of the presidential race will actually be able to implement his legislative agenda this year. next.

While Republicans defend a slim majority in the House of Representatives, Democrats only need to flip a handful of seats to regain control of the lower chamber, and both parties are pushing hard for a majority.

Here are seven House races to watch this year:

Arizona's First Congressional District

Republican incumbent David Schweikert is running for re-election in this hotly contested district, which covers northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale. As one of 17 House Republicans representing districts Biden won in 2020, Schweikert is vulnerable and Democrats have identified the seat as one of their top targets this year.

Redistricting after the 2020 census shifted this district to the left, and several Democrats entered the July 30 primary hoping to unseat Schweikert. The race is expected to be close as Schweikert won his 2022 election by less than a point.

California's 47th congressional district

Democratic Rep. Katie Porter chose not to run for office in this battleground district, but instead launched a Senate campaign that ultimately ended in failure. His departure has created a key opportunity for House Republicans, and Democrats will likely need to invest heavily in the district to defend this Orange County-based seat.

In the March 5 primary, former Republican Rep. Scott Baugh, who lost to Porter by just three points in 2022, advanced to the general election alongside Democratic Sen. Dave Min.

Min came off a brutal fight against Democratic activist and lawyer Joanna Weiss, who attacked her opponent following her arrest for drunk driving last year. Republicans will likely launch similar attacks on Min before the general election, but Democrats are still favored to hold the left-leaning constituency.

Maines Second Congressional District

Democratic incumbent Jared Golden is seeking a fourth term in this perennially dynamic district that Republicans have repeatedly tried, unsuccessfully, to flip. Golden beat former Republican Congressman Bruce Poliquin by six points in 2022, even though Trump had won the district by six points two years earlier, according to data compiled by Daily Kos.

But this time around, Republicans believe they have a strong candidate in state Rep. and former professional race car driver Austin Theriault, who will face fellow state Rep. Michael Soboleski in a primary on June 11. June. Republicans also suspect that some independent voters could turn against Golden after he announced his support for an assault weapons ban in response to the mass shooting in Lewiston, Maine, last year, which cost the lives of 18 people.

Golden has proven politically resilient in this right-leaning district, so a defeat could indicate broader electoral problems for Democrats in November.

Michigan's Seventh Congressional District

Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkins' decision to run for Senate has created an opening in this battleground district, which both parties have identified as a key target this year.

Former Republican state Sen. Tom Barrett is running again after losing the 2022 election to Slotkin by six points, and he is expected to face former Democratic state Sen. Curtis Hertel.

The Cook Political Report described the district as the most competitive open seat in the country, and the high stakes will likely make for a very expensive race.

North Carolina's First Congressional District

Freshman Democratic congressman Don Davis is running for office in this northeastern North Carolina district, which has shifted to the right after the last round of redistricting.

Much to the relief of Republican strategists, Laurie Buckhout won the congressional nomination against Sandy Smith, who lost to Davis by five points in 2022. Smith's electoral prospects had been hampered by his controversial record; she had previously been accused of domestic violence, and she was at the Capitol on January 6, 2021, when a group of Trump supporters stormed the building to disrupt the certification of Biden's victory in the 2020 election.

Republicans are hoping that Buckhout's impressive background as an Army veteran and founder of her own consulting firm, combined with the more favorable district lines, will be enough to unseat Davis.

New York's 17th congressional district

Mike Lawler made headlines by defeating incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney, then chairman of the House Democrats' campaign arm, by less than a point in 2022. This year, Maloney is expected to face the former House member. Democratic Congresswoman Mondaire Jones in this Hudson Valley district who went for Biden in 2020.

Lawler hasn't had the worst consequences of New York's redistricting process; that distinction goes to fellow freshman Republican Brandon Williams, whose Syracuse-area seat flipped from Biden +7 to Biden +11, according to the Cook Political Report.

Lawler will still face stiff competition in a race that will be closely watched for broader voting trends in November. If he fails to retain his seat, it could cause problems for Republicans down the ballot.

Pennsylvania's Eighth Congressional District

Along with Golden, Cartwright is one of five House Democrats who represent districts won by Trump in 2020, and Republicans are fighting for his Scranton-area seat.

But Cartwright has repeatedly defied political gravity in this right-wing district, most recently winning re-election by about two points in 2022. This time around, Cartwright will face local businessman Rob Bresnahan, who could make up a serious threat to the sixth term. holder.

Cartwright must hope he can pull off another upset to keep this seat.

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