Reform is now one point ahead of the Conservatives, but this is still within the margin of error.

With Reform UK's voter turnout trending slowly but steadily upward over the past few months, there have been whispers that the party could one day overtake the unpopular Conservatives in the opinion polls.

The day has finally arrived. The latest YouGov voting intentions survey, conducted on 12-13 June, had Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives by one point, at 19-18%. Although they are ahead numerically, it is worth bearing in mind that these figures are within margin of error of each other, and it will not be known for some time whether the reforms will enable them to maintain or improve their position vis-à-vis the Conservatives.

Given these considerations, and given the results of the last few opinion polls, it might be fairer to say that Reform UK is neck-and-neck with the Conservatives at this point.

None of this is to downplay the importance of British reform. The fact that Nigel Farages' party has taken on the ruling Conservatives has made a huge difference to the voting environment.

Reform Britain won't immediately see the first benefits of passing the post system, but it does mean the party is unlikely to win many seats in a vote share of this size. Such a display could cripple the Conservative Party internally and is potentially an opportunity for Farage to force a merger of the two parties he recently spoke about.

Other voting intention results showed Labor at 37%, down one point from the previous poll, and the Liberal Democrats, who had risen four points in the previous poll, also down one point to 14%. The Green Party likewise fell one point to 7%.

See full results here

What do you think about the rise of Reform UK, the general election and everything else? Speak up, join YouGov panels and get paid to share your thoughts. Sign up here.

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