2024 general election: UK reform voters are unfriendly and more militant towards the Conservatives

Despite the majority of British reform voters supporting the Conservatives in 2019, few could be sure they would vote for the Conservatives this time because they actively dislike them.

YouGov's latest voting intention figures show Reform UK ahead of the Conservatives for the first time. The party has seen an improvement in its vote share in the two weeks since Nigel Farage announced both his candidacy and leadership of the party.

The rise of Reform UK comes at the same time that the Conservatives are in trouble in the opinion polls. There was speculation before the election that Tory support would improve during the campaign, but one of the stories of the election so far has been the reversal in Tory poll numbers as the 4th of July approaches.

New YouGov data collected since Nigel Farage took charge again reveals why this has happened. This shows that despite the majority (68%) of British Reform voters supporting the Conservative Party in 2019, few are confident they will return to the party then.

Reform UK is running in almost every constituency, and the data shows that even if they resigned, only 36% of voters said they would switch to the Conservatives. Instead, 6% would vote for Labour, an equal proportion would vote for the Liberal Democrats, 4% would vote for the Greens and 12% would vote for another party. In a scenario where Reform UK fields no candidates for their seats, a quarter (26%) would not vote in this election.

Our data shows that many British reform voters do not view themselves favorably toward the militant Conservative Party. Three quarters (74%) have an unfavorable opinion of the Conservatives, with 41% saying they have a very unfavorable opinion. This compares with just one in five (22%) respondents who favor the Conservatives. These voters have similar views of the Prime Minister, with 76% to 22% unfavorable towards Rishi Sunak.

Additionally, when asked whether they would prefer a Conservative or Labor government after the next election, 75% said they would choose neither, and that either outcome would be just as bad as the other. One in five (19%) said they would prefer a Conservative government to a Labor government, while 4% said they would prefer a Labor government.

Despite the rise in the opinion polls, British Reform voters remain realistic about the party's chances of winning seats in the first constituency where Britain passed the postal system. Only one in five (21%) currently think the party will win in their area, while 61% think they have no chance of winning and are voting for the party despite limited hopes of success in parliament. suggests.

As Nigel Farages' party enters the latter stages of the campaign surging in the opinion polls, the Conservatives are facing an even bigger challenge as they now have few votes they can realistically press on to reform Britain.

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