The US military still has an advantage, but China is catching up on high-tech weapons

Beijing conducted a two-day joint military exercise to blockade Taiwan after the inauguration of the island's new leader, William Lai Ching-te, in late May. Washington has expressed deep concerns and repeatedly warned against the PLA's regional military buildup as Beijing steps up its exercises near Taiwan. .

Beijing views Taiwan as a part of China that must be reunified by force if necessary. The United States, like most countries, does not recognize Taiwan's independence, but opposes any attempt to seize it by force and is legally required to arm it in self-defense. optional cut ends

Timothy Heath, senior international defense fellow at US think tank Rand Corporation, said the gap between the two militaries was narrowing as China invested in military modernization, acquiring new platforms and weapons .

China's defense industry is strong because the majority of companies are state-owned, with close ties to central leaders and generous funding, Heath said.

At the same time, the United States is finding it harder to provide the economic incentives needed to motivate the private sector to reach the size and scale of Chinese companies, he added.

Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun (center) walks out after a bilateral meeting with his U.S. counterpart Lloyd Austin on the sidelines of the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore on May 31. Photo: AFP

According to the Pentagon, the Chinese Navy has surpassed the U.S. Navy in the number of combat ships over the past decade, thanks to China's status as the world's largest ship producer by tonnage.

A US Congressional Research Service report released in October last year predicted that the PLA would have 440 ships by 2030, while the United States would have 290.

Senior US Air Force officials also highlighted the PLA's potential to become the world's largest air force. It now has more than 3,150 non-trainer and non-drone aircraft, compared to about 4,000 for the US military.

As China continues to catch up in air and maritime capabilities, the two sides have essentially achieved a balance of power when it comes to military presence in the Western Pacific, said Hu Bo, director of the China-based think tank. Beijing, South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative.

Given their comparable conventional warfare capabilities, the outcomes of a conflict between the United States and China in the Western Pacific would be quite unpredictable, he said.

However, military commentator Song Zhongping said that until at least the centenary of the PLA in 2027, there will always be a divide between China and the United States.

There is no doubt that the United States is the most powerful military power in the world, a leader in conventional and nuclear weapons, said Song, a former PLA instructor, citing the 11 aircraft carriers at nuclear propulsion and the U.S. military's advanced fighter jets.

China has begun sea trials of its third aircraft carrier, the Fujian, but has not yet produced a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier.

The PLA has struggled to overcome corruption amid a military overhaul that includes former commanders of its nuclear weapons force and a lack of combat experience dating back to 1979.

In contrast, the U.S. military maintains a formidable advantage in the quality of its extremely well-trained and experienced personnel, Heath said, adding that it also enjoys superiority in submarines and aircraft.

Even if the PLA has developed a highly skilled workforce capable of operating its new hardware effectively, that doesn't give China an advantage against the U.S. military, Heath said. Military advantage at the start of a war does not guarantee victory.

But Hu emphasized that the U.S. military's recent combat experiences have always been against the weakest.

The capability required to deal with terrorism and adversaries like Iraq and Afghanistan, compared to China, is obviously different, so the question of whether the experience could be used in [conflicts with China] is questionable, he said.

03:11

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai's speech

Mainland China launches PLA blockade around Taiwan, 3 days after William Lai's speech

The Pentagon's budget request for fiscal year 2025, announced in March, included $4 billion in investments for its undersea industrial base.

It included a budget for the development of the latest Columbia-class guided-missile submarine, which is expected to enter service in 2031. It is expected to feature a quieter electric motor system and greater overall durability, replacing the nearly 50-year-old Ohio-class submarines.

But some observers say Washington's efforts to consolidate its alliances in the region are complicating the process of catching up.

US President Joe Biden held the first tripartite summit with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts Yoon Suk-yeol and Fumio Kishida last August at Camp David, where they pledged to strengthen trilateral security cooperation, including in carrying out regular joint military exercises.

In April, Biden and Kishida participated in another trilateral summit with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr, during which the trio expressed concerns over China's dangerous and aggressive behavior in the South China Sea.

Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor of international relations at Kings College London, said Washington's strategy of strengthening alliances and partnerships in East Asia and the Indo-Pacific gave it a significant advantage over Beijing, which did not have a reliable ally in the region.

This partly explains why China is so critical of the United States' burgeoning ties with countries like South Korea or the Philippines. Australia and Japan will follow US policy no matter what, Pacheco Pardo said.

Their decision to work more closely with the United States poses a problem for Beijing. The United States can strengthen its military ties with reliable partners, giving it more firepower in the event of conflict.

03:10

Trade, Taiwan discussed at three-way summit of Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders

Trade, Taiwan discussed at three-way summit of Chinese, Japanese and South Korean leaders

Washington is also seeking to strengthen its ties with its allies by sharing its defense technologies.

In April, the defense chiefs of the United States, Britain and Australia said the three countries were considering expanding the second pillar of their Aukus security alliance to add like-minded partners. ideas. Japan, South Korea, Canada and New Zealand are reportedly among the candidates being considered for inclusion in the technology sharing agreement.

Launched in 2021, Aukus is based on two key pillars. Pillar 1 supports Australia's acquisition of conventionally armed nuclear submarines, while Pillar 2 focuses on advanced technologies including quantum computing, artificial intelligence and hypersonic weapons.

Pacheco Pardo said the United States understands that the second pillar of Aukus requires cooperation with high-tech countries such as South Korea and Japan, while it makes sense to include other countries like Canada or New Zealand from a political point of view.

In this way, the United States can create a very strong minilateral. It would undoubtedly be the most powerful minilateral in the Indo-Pacific region in the field of new military technologies, Pacheco Pardo said.

I think the gap between the United States and China is narrowing thanks to Beijing's huge investments in new technologies. Beijing will continue to narrow its military power differential with Washington, but I think it will still take time to fully catch up given the United States. own investment and current benefit.

In particular, I believe the United States will benefit from cooperation with its allies and partners, both in the Indo-Pacific region and within NATO. This is a big problem for China, which lacks reliable high-tech partners.

China's third aircraft carrier, Fujian, has an advanced electromagnetic catapult system. Photo: video surveillance

Xi launched a plan to transform the PLA into a fully modern force comparable to the US military in the Pacific by 2027 and become a world-class army by 2049, the centenary of the country's rise to power. Communist Party.

In a military modernization effort, Xi has pledged in 2022 to accelerate the development of intelligent, unmanned combat capabilities.

According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) arms transfer database, China has exported more than 280 combat drones over the past decade, mainly to the Middle East. , North Africa and South Asia.

To counter China's growing drone capabilities, the United States launched its Replicator initiative to deploy thousands of military drones.

Unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, acquired under the program were delivered to the U.S. military in May, according to U.S. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks.

The United States is trying to catch up with China in small, attritable, swarming, AI-enabled drones, said Kostas Tigkos, head of mission systems and intelligence at global military intelligence firm Janes.

China has invested heavily in these low-cost capabilities, which provide an advantage on the battlefield, especially against expensive and complex traditional platforms, Tigkos said.

Hu stressed that the two countries were on the same starting line when it came to the military use of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and that it was still unclear who was stronger and who was the weaker. weaker.

Beijing has an advantage over Washington in hypersonic missile systems. Only two countries, China and Russia, have such weapons in service. Beijing's DF-17, a medium-range missile system with a hypersonic glide vehicle, has been in service since 2019.

According to an annual report on Chinese military power released in October, Beijing has the world's first hypersonic arsenal and has significantly advanced its supersonic missile technologies over the past two decades.

Chinese hypersonics are among the most advanced in the world. This reflects the long-standing strengths of China's ballistic missile program, Heath said.

The United States is lagging behind China because it has not prioritized missiles. The United States has relied on its aircraft and forward-deployed military forces to carry out similar long-range strike and bombing functions.

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