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Scottish independence forces could become UK election biggest losers

Scottish independence forces could become UK election biggest losers
Scottish independence forces could become UK election biggest losers


In YouGov's model, every seat is given a predicted winner, but a seat is considered a “tossup” if the difference is less than 5% of the vote. There are 22 such seats in Scotland, almost 40% of all seats in Scotland.

In both of these toss-up positions, the SNP is one of the best parties fighting it. In the North East, the SNP is fighting the Conservatives to win over more rural, right-wing voters, while in the central belt it must contend with Labor's attempts to attract a broadly urban, left-leaning population.

“There are actually two different elections going on in Scotland. It’s very difficult for the SNP because they have to fight both against different opponents, while their opponents are fighting one or the other,” says Diffley.

Depending on how things play out in the throws on election night, this could have far more dire consequences than expected, or the loss to the SNP may be much smaller than the party may fear.

As Diffley said: “It is almost inevitable that they will lose a significant number of seats. Now, whether that's 20 or 30, you know, we don't know. […] “But from what we know, even people inside the SNP will tell you that it’s going to be a pretty tough night for them in the coming weeks.”

The charts in this article are all based on YouGov's MRP model using data from May 24 to June 1, 2024. Seat predictions are based on responses from 53,334 adults in England and Wales and 5,541 adults in Scotland to the question “Now think specifically about your business.” Assuming you have chosen your constituency and this is your current political party, which party would you vote for in the UK general election on 4 July 2024?”

Giovanna Coi contributed reporting.




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