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British Reform Manifesto: Reaction

British Reform Manifesto: Reaction

 


Carl Emmerson, deputy director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said: Reform UK proposes tax cuts that it estimates will cost nearly $90 billion a year and predicts a spending increase of $50 billion a year. It claims it will pay for this by cutting $150 billion a year in other spending, including public services, debt service and working age benefits.

This would mean a significant reduction in the size of the state. Regardless of the pros and cons of downsizing the state or any specific measure, the package as a whole is problematic. Spending cuts will save less money than stated, and tax cuts will cost tens of billions of pounds more per year than stated. Meanwhile, increased spending will likely cost more than stated to achieve the goal.

A $90 billion annual tax cut, while significant, would still represent a higher share of revenue from the economy than in 201920. But in reality, the proposed tax cut package would cost tens of billions of dollars if fully implemented. That's a pound more per year. For example, Reform UK plans to cut the corporation tax rate from 25% to 20% immediately and to 15% after parliament. The manifesto costing will evaluate these measures only during the next parliamentary process. That means about half of your long-term annual costs are excluded.

The largest proposed spending increase is for the NHS (17 billion a year). But this is not enough to meet the reform's hugely ambitious promise to eliminate waiting lists within two years. Completely eliminating waiting lists is something that has never been achieved in the history of the NHS and seems almost impossible within two years.

Cost-cutting measures will result in savings of less than stated. The argument for changing the extent to which the Bank of England pays interest to commercial banks is quite persuasive, and in fact some central banks do not pay interest on all the reserves they hold. But whether it's a good idea or not, the annual amount raised is much less than $35 billion. The reforms also propose cutting wasteful spending across all government departments, quangos and councils by $50 billion a year. But saving this money requires much more than cracking down on waste. It is almost certain that we will have to make drastic cuts in the quantity and quality of public services.

Despite extremely optimistic assumptions about how much economic growth will increase, the sums in this statement do not add up. The reform manifesto sets out clear priorities, but the government can only implement part of this package or must find other ways to help pay for it, meaning there are no clear losers.

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