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UK inflation, May 2024

UK inflation, May 2024

 


Shoppers on the main street in the Kingston district of London, England

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Britain's inflation rate in May fell to the Bank of England's target of 2.0%, the Office for National Statistics said Wednesday in its last print edition of key economic data ahead of the July general election.

The headline figure was down from 2.3% in April and in line with the 2% expectation of economists polled by Reuters.

Sterling rose slightly immediately after launch, trading at $1.2721 by 7:33 a.m. London time.

Services inflation, which the BOE closely monitors to reflect its dominance within the UK economy and domestically generated inflation, stood at 5.7% in May, compared with 5.9% the previous month.

Core inflation, excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, fell to 3.5% from 3.9% in April.

The ONS said falling food prices were the biggest driver of the decline, while motor fuel costs continued to face upward pressure.

Grocery sales rose at their slowest pace in two years due to unseasonably bad weather, British market research firm Kantar said on Tuesday. According to the index, grocery sales rose 1.0% in the four weeks to June 9, marking the 16th consecutive month of falling food inflation.

The Bank of England's decision is in focus.

Recent reports have shown inflation to be in line with the BOE's targets, but Schroders chief European economist and strategist Azad Zangana said upward pressure could return in the second half of the year as the UK phases out energy price caps. I warned you that it might happen.

“Starting in the third and fourth quarter, we will see some more upward pressure, as the Bank of England has warned,” he said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Zangana suggested the bank may “surprise” markets with a rate cut this week at its meeting next Thursday. Otherwise, the bank is widely expected to keep rates steady at 5.25% after August 2023, when inflation would hover around 7.9%.

Nonetheless, with inflation now closer to target, the market is pricing in a near-term cut. All but two of 65 economists surveyed by Reuters last week said they expect a rate cut in August, while financial markets expect such a cut in September.

This economic performance comes as Britain prepares for a general election on July 4, with opinion polls predicting that the opposition Labor Party will win a landslide victory.

In a post on social media platform

Opposition politician Rachel Reeves acknowledged that although inflation was rising at a slower pace, “the cost of living crisis remains severe” for many families.

Sources

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2/ https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/19/uk-inflation-may-2024.html

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