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British Prime Minister Sunak could lose his seat in a historic election defeat, a poll suggests.

British Prime Minister Sunak could lose his seat in a historic election defeat, a poll suggests.
British Prime Minister Sunak could lose his seat in a historic election defeat, a poll suggests.


Chancellor Rishi Sunak speaks to farmers while campaigning on a farm near Barnstaple, North Devon, England, June 18, 2024. North Devon has been controlled by the Conservative Party since the 2015 general election.

Leon Neal | Getty Images News | getty images

British Chancellor Rishi Sunak could become Britain's first sitting prime minister to lose his seat in a general election, according to a shocking new poll.

Center-left Labor is expected to win as many as 516 seats in the July 4 election, according to analysis conducted on Wednesday by market research firm Savanta in conjunction with Electoral Calculus and the Telegraph.

If correct, Labor will receive an overwhelming majority of 382 votes in this vote. This is far more than former Prime Minister Tony Blair achieved in his historic victory in 1997.

Forecasts show that the ruling centre-right Conservatives are expected to win 53 seats, down from 365 in the 2019 election, while the centrist Liberal Democrats are expected to give the Conservatives a tough fight to become the official opposition party in the next parliament.

According to the analysis, the left-leaning Scottish National Party was expected to win eight seats, and Wales' independence-leaning party Plaid Simru was expected to win four seats. Britain's right-wing Reform UK and environmental activist Green Party appear to have failed to secure even a single seat. seat.

Of the 632 seats that will be contested over two weeks, 175 are currently “too close to vote,” Savanta said.

These include a number of senior Conservative seats, including Sunak's seat in Richmond and the seat of Northallerton in North Yorkshire, Home Secretary James Cleverly's seat of Braintree in Essex, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt's seat in Godalming and the seat of Ash in Surrey.

I do not believe for a moment that the Conservative Party will be virtually wiped out. I don't believe it.

Alistair Campbell

Former Labor Party Public Relations Director

Savanta said it interviewed 17,812 respondents aged 18 and older online from June 7 to 18. The poll used multiple regression and post-stratification modeling (sometimes called MRP) to provide estimates of national voting intentions.

MRP uses voters' age, gender, and other demographic characteristics to predict the vote share in each constituency, thereby predicting the likely winner of each seat and the overall election outcome.

'I just don't believe it'

Sabanta's analysis reflects a flurry of opinion polls in recent weeks that generally indicate Labor is heading for a historic election victory.

Sunak has previously downplayed concerns about the Conservatives' poll rating, saying late last month that “the only poll that matters is the July 4 poll”.

Alistair Campbell, Labour's former communications director for Blair, said on Thursday he did not think the Conservatives would suffer a landslide defeat in next month's election.

“I don’t believe for a second that the Conservative Party is going to be virtually wiped out,” Campbell said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“If Labor is going to get a majority, they have to make a bigger difference than what we got in 1997 or what Clement Attlee got in 1945. I just think there’s something very, very wrong with this poll,” Campbell said. .




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