US pushes to avoid wider war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

The United States is in the midst of intense diplomatic pressure to prevent an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon, as risks increase that either side could launch a broader regional fight .

In recent days, U.S. officials have been pressuring their Israeli counterparts and sending messages to Hezbollah leaders in an effort to avert a broader regional conflict that they fear could involve both Iran and the United States.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant met in Washington this week with several Biden administration officials, largely to discuss escalating tensions along Israel’s northern border with Lebanon. That visit was followed last week by Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, and its strategic affairs minister, Ron Dermer.

Also last week, a senior White House official, Amos Hochstein, who has assumed an informal diplomatic role as mediator between the two sides, visited Israel and Lebanon. Mr. Hochstein warned Iran-backed Hezbollah that the United States would not be able to restrain Israel if it engaged in an all-out war against the militia.

Rivals for decades, Israel and Hezbollah have frequently exchanged fire along Israel's northern border. After the Hamas attacks on October 7, which sparked a fierce Israeli offensive in Gaza, Hezbollah began firing into Israel, primarily at Israeli military targets in northern Israel, in solidarity with Hamas. , which is also supported by Iran.

Fighting has intensified in recent weeks and the reduction of Israeli combat operations in Gaza, where it has significantly weakened Hamas, has freed up more forces for a possible offensive in the north.

The worst-case scenario for U.S. officials would be an escalation in which, for the second time, Iran and Israel would exchange blows directly. In such a case, the United States might not be able to control the escalation of hostilities as it did in April.

For now, U.S. officials believe that Israel and Hezbollah would prefer to reach a diplomatic solution.

During his visit to Washington, Mr. Gallant told Biden administration officials that Israel did not want a full-scale war with Hezbollah, but was prepared to hit the group hard if it was more provoked.

Among the officials who met with Mr. Gallant were Mr. Hochstein, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and CIA Director William J. Burns.

The US priority is de-escalation, said David Schenker, former assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern Affairs in the Trump administration. Neither side wants war.

Hezbollah was formed with Iranian help to fight the Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon after Israel invaded the country in 1982. A far more formidable fighting force than Hamas, Hezbollah has amassed thousands of rockets capable of devastating Israeli cities.

US intelligence agencies believe Hezbollah intends to show support for Hamas by striking across the border, but is trying to avoid giving Israel an excuse to launch a cross-border incursion.

U.S. officials say the Israeli government is divided over whether to open a larger front in the north. Some Israeli officials, including Mr. Gallant, argued after the October 7 Hamas attacks that Israel should have responded by trying to destroy both Hamas and Hezbollah.

Mr. Gallant's position has since changed, according to U.S. officials. He now believes that opening a new front would be ill-advised.

But U.S. officials and analysts say the risk of war spreading remains dangerously high.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces growing political pressure to restore security in northern Israel, from where some 60,000 residents have been evacuated. Many hope to return to the region before the new school year begins in September, but most say they will not feel safe enough to return as long as Hezbollah attacks continue.

Added to this risk is the uncertainty between the United States, Israel, Hezbollah and Iran as to each other's true intentions.

It is possible to halt this latest escalation and expansion of the conflict, warned Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. But four players are engaged in a dangerous game of chicken and goose; the risk of miscalculation is high.

Many in Washington and elsewhere have underestimated the risk tolerance of Iran's current leaders, she added.

U.S. officials do not have direct contact with Hezbollah because the United States considers it a terrorist group. Mr. Hochstein conveys his messages to his leaders through Lebanese Shiite politicians informally aligned with the group.

“He sent a very strong message: If you think we can dictate to them what they should or shouldn't do, you're wrong,” said Ed Gabriel, president of the American Task Force on Lebanon, a nonprofit organization. nonprofit that supports democracy in Lebanon and U.S.-Lebanon relations. “We must understand that America does not have the means to stop Israel. »

Mr. Gabriel, a former US ambassador to Morocco, said he had direct knowledge of the communications. A US official confirmed that Mr Hochstein had delivered the message.

In addition to urging both sides to show restraint, Mr. Hochstein attempted to persuade Hezbollah to withdraw its forces further from the Israeli border, as required by a United Nations Security Council resolution adopted after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah.

On Sunday, Mr Netanyahu said in a televised interview that Israel was demanding Hezbollah be physically removed from the border to eliminate the threat posed by the armed group.

I hope we won't have to do it militarily, but if we do, we will be up to the task, he said.

A larger conflict between Israel and Lebanon could be devastating for both sides. Israel inflicted so much damage on Lebanon in 2006 that the group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said he would not have carried out the operation that started the war if he had known the damage that would result. But Israel would also come out bloodied. Hezbollah claims it could launch 3,000 rockets and missiles per day, a barrage capable of overwhelming Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.

And even if Iran were not directly involved, its other proxy forces, including Shiite militias in Iraq and Houthi militants in Yemen, could step up their attacks on Israel and American interests.

Analysts and officials say a halt to the fighting in Gaza would be the surest way to defuse friction between Israel and Hezbollah. But a recent plan to stop the fighting, endorsed by Mr. Biden and the Security Council, has been thrown into doubt by additional demands from Hamas and equivocal statements from Mr. Netanyahu.

Mr. Hanegbi, Israel's national security adviser, said Mr. Hochstein was optimistic that Israel's plan to transition to lower-intensity fighting in Gaza after ending its Rafah offensive could open a diplomatic window for a truce with Hezbollah.

He believes this will allow Hezbollah to free itself from its daily solidarity with the war in Gaza, Hanegbi said Tuesday during a discussion at Reichman University in Herzliya. And this means that it will be possible to talk about a settlement in the north.

One of the growing concerns of U.S. officials is the well-being of American diplomats and citizens in the Lebanese capital, Beirut.

The State Department on Thursday issued an advisory again warning Americans not to travel to Lebanon and emphasizing that the Lebanese government cannot guarantee the protection of American citizens from sudden outbreaks of violence and armed conflict.

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