US seeks deal between Israel and Hezbollah to avoid war in Lebanon

U.S. officials say they are working to quell the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah that has pushed Lebanon to the brink of all-out war, an effort complicated by the administration's difficulty in brokering a ceasefire between Israel. and Hamas in the Gaza Strip, analysts and diplomats said.

Fears that months of deadly violence on the Lebanese border could escalate into an even more devastating conflict reached a fever pitch this month after Israel assassinated a senior Hezbollah official and the militant group responded with massive rocket fire. This week, several countries, including Germany and Canada, advised their citizens to leave Lebanon, citing the risk of escalating hostilities.

The United States has not yet ordered its citizens to evacuate, but this week it sent an amphibious ship, the USS Wasp, carrying Marines trained in evacuations, to the Mediterranean Sea. The Pentagon declined to comment on any evacuation plans to Lebanon.

Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed Lebanese militant group allied with Hamas, has repeatedly said that a halt to Israel’s offensive in Gaza is necessary before its fighters will withdraw. U.S. officials have acknowledged Hezbollah’s conditions while suggesting, without providing details, that there could be options for ending the conflict on the Israeli-Lebanese border without a cease-fire in Gaza.

With the talks underway, concern is growing in Lebanon and Israel about the consequences of a war that would almost certainly result in heavy civilian casualties, after months of fighting that have already displaced nearly 200,000 Lebanese and Israelis on either side of the border.

Such a conflict would likely involve the United States, Israel's main military backer, while dealing a blow to the Biden administration's stated goal of preventing hostilities in Gaza from spreading across the Middle East.

U.S. and Israeli officials have stressed their desire to reach a comprehensive agreement that would eliminate the threat Hezbollah poses to northern Israel and allow tens of thousands of displaced people from the region to return. But analysts say Hezbollah, in the absence of a permanent ceasefire in Gaza, is unlikely to sign a deal that would limit its military options.

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Draft deals include calling for the group to withdraw its heavy weapons from the Israeli border while offering funds for the reconstruction of Lebanon, among other conditions, according to Lebanese and European officials and published reports.

There is no way we can stop if the [war] The operation will not stop in Gaza, a member of Hezbollah's press office told the Washington Post this week, reiterating the group's long-standing position. If the operation stops in Gaza, it will stop in the south, the media representative said, speaking on condition of anonymity in accordance with Hezbollah rules.

In the event of a temporary truce in Gaza, without a permanent ceasefire, Hezbollah would reciprocate in Lebanon, as happened the first time, the representative said, referring to the group's decision to cease shooting for a week in Gaza in November. But this does not mean that Hezbollah would accept a broader agreement, which could not be discussed with us before the war in Gaza is stopped, the representative said. Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, has repeatedly said the group does not want war.

US diplomatic efforts were led by Amos Hochstein, a top White House energy adviser, who in 2022 successfully brokered a maritime agreement between Israel and Lebanon. It was a historic deal that demarcated the maritime borders between the two countries. Hochstein visited Lebanon this month.

Qatar, which served as mediator in negotiations between Israel and Hamas, was also tapped by the United States to participate in mediation in Lebanon, according to a person familiar with the negotiations and who, like other people interviewed, on the current negotiations, spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomatic subjects. Qatar's role was first reported this week by the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

The Biden administration continues to view a ceasefire in Gaza as a key step toward resolving the crisis in Lebanon. But U.S. officials have also begun exploring relief options to ease tensions, according to officials familiar with the matter.

U.S. State Department spokesman Matthew Miller declined Tuesday to elaborate on the prospects for success of a U.S. diplomatic effort, but said we believe a diplomatic resolution is possible and in the interest of all parties. A senior U.S. official who briefed reporters Wednesday said there were opportunities to advance diplomacy, but declined to discuss Washington's rescue plan.

I'm not going to talk in terms of Plan A, Plan B, Plan C, the official said.

Nasrallah's comments after Hochstein's visit this month suggested that the White House remained focused on the Gaza ceasefire as a solution.

He suggested that Hochstein had asked Hezbollah to intervene with Hamas to accept a White House ceasefire plan, a suggestion he rejected. Accept what? Accept this solution that offers them a six-week ceasefire and deprives them of their most important assets, then expose them to relentless war, he said, referring to Hamas' demand for a permanent end to the conflict.

During a visit to Washington this week, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel did not want a war with Hezbollah but was preparing for all scenarios.

I met Amos Hochstein twice this week. We communicate intensively. Israel wants to find a solution that will change the security situation in the north, he said.

“We will not accept the presence of Hezbollah troops and military formations on the border with Israel. We will not accept that our northern communities are under threat,” Gallant said. “We are prepared to do everything in our power to protect our people. We don't want to go to war because it's not good for Israel. We have the possibility of returning Lebanon to the Stone Age, but we do not want to do it. »

In his private meetings with officials, Gallant sought to sow fear in the minds of his American counterparts, suggesting that Israel was threatened by Iran and Hezbollah in ways not corroborated by the services' assessments. of American intelligence, said an official present in the room during one of its meetings.

Gallant suggested that Iran might simply randomly launch a massive war to destroy Israel, which is a bit of a stretch and does not match what the intelligence shows, the official said.

Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, said that faced with the threat of war, everyone, including the Israelis, realizes that the military options are limited and certainly not good. I'm not sure anyone thinks a ground invasion is at this point desirable or even feasible.

Hezbollah is a very different caliber opponent from Hamas, with nearly 20 years since Israel’s last incursion into Lebanon to prepare for a similar scenario on its own turf, he said, adding that there is credible information that Hezbollah has a tunnel network that is far more advanced and difficult to hit than the one Hamas has built in Gaza. (A Hezbollah spokesman, speaking to The Post in April, said the group had taught Hamas how to build its tunnels.)

The general opinion is that this situation could turn out badly. That's not really going to restore the IDF's deterrence, Wimmen said, referring to the Israel Defense Forces. That leaves room for Israel to pursue options other than invasion, including a campaign of airstrikes, a strategy based on the idea that enough suffering could be inflicted on Hezbollah to force the group to withdraw.

It's a risky proposition, Wimmen said. You never know where the red line is until you cross it.

Hezbollah has continued to negotiate with Washington, through Lebanese mediators, despite the ongoing fighting in Gaza, a European official in Lebanon said.

But if there is a temporary truce in Gaza and Hezbollah holds back its fire, the question we now ask is: Will Israel decide to stop? the official said.

The fear is that Israel will continue its targeted assassinations of Hezbollah members in Lebanon, 338 of whom have been killed in fighting since October, risking retaliation or a miscalculation that could trigger a war.

That would inevitably cause difficulties for the United States, said Maj. Harrison Mann, who resigned last month from the Middle East division of the U.S. defense intelligence agency to protest U.S. support for the Israeli offensive in Gaza.

The United States has supplied weapons that Israel has already used in Lebanon and has promised to continue supporting Israel even as its ally considers a broader war. At the same time, Biden administration officials said they privately urged Israel not to be the party that escalates the conflict.

Israel will not launch an offensive until it is fully assured of U.S. support, he said. So I think the final trigger for a war of annihilation, in the form of a ground offensive, will come when [Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu believes he has the green light from the United States

Fahim reported from Istanbul, Hudson from Washington and Dadouch from Beirut. Mohamad El-Chamaa in Beirut and Karen DeYoung and Dan Lamothe in Washington contributed to this report.

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