Beryl strengthens – Caribbean and US on hurricane alert

Tropical Storm Beryl forms.

NOAA/ACEI

Tropical Storm Beryl has formed and could become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. Given the trends and uncertainty, anyone in the Eastern Caribbean, Jamaica, and even the Gulf Coast of the United States or Mexico should pay attention over the next 14 days. Here's what you need to know about beryl as it gains strength.

Track expected for Beryl

NOAA/NHC

According to the National Hurricane Center discussion released Saturday morning, Tropical Storm Beryl is expected to strengthen into a hurricane when it reaches the Windward Islands late Sunday night or Monday.

If you are currently living or vacationing in these islands, expect hurricane force winds, heavy rainfall, and dangerous ocean conditions. A wise and diligent brother of Alpha Phi Alpha fraternity has already texted me as his family is currently vacationing in Anguilla.

The NHC discussion continues by indicating that a hurricane watch is now in effect for Barbados. Additional hurricane and tropical storm watches, and possibly warnings, will likely be needed for parts of the Windward Islands and southern Leeward Islands later today.

Beyond the immediate threat, the nation's top hurricane experts are also urging people in the western and central Caribbean to monitor the system. They also warn of significant uncertainty for days 4 and 5 and stress not to focus on specific details of the track or intensity forecast.

The origin of tropical cyclones is at the end of June, according to climatology.

NOAA

If you're wondering if it's too early to call it the first hurricane of the season, the answer is yes. Typically, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season forms around August 11, according to NOAA. Beryl's genesis region is also unusual for this time of year. If a tropical cyclone forms in late June, it's usually in the Gulf of Mexico or near the Bay of Campeche. Beryl formed in the primary development region of the Atlantic Ocean. We typically expect MDR storms much later in the season.

The Atlantic warm pool in June is a worrying sign for hurricane season.

NOAA Climate.gov/MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

Dr. Matthew Rosencrans is the lead hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. In an excellent blog post, he states, “This year, NOAA is forecasting a very high probability (85% chance) of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season (2), with 17 to 25 named storms (average is 14), 8 to 13 hurricanes (average is 7), and 4 to 7 major hurricanes (average is 3).” He points out several key factors:

Reduced upper-level wind shear due to the appearance of La Nia. Very warm sea surface temperatures in the MDR and throughout the Atlantic basin. A stronger West African monsoon, which affects easterly winds associated with the formation of tropical cyclones late in the season.

Conditions are favorable for an active hurricane season.

NOAA Climate.gov/MATTHEW ROSENCRANS

Why are experts like me worried about Beryl? It is likely to be a hurricane in the next few hours, and many people in the Eastern Caribbean region may not be prepared or accustomed to a storm like this in June. Additionally, the following statement from the National Hurricane Center is worth considering: Atmospheric and oceanic conditions over the western tropical Atlantic and eastern Caribbean Sea are unusually favorable for strengthening, and the model indicates rapid intensification SHIPS show a significant probability of rapid intensification. Some models even predict that Beryl could reach major hurricane status, that is to say category 3 or higher.

Beyond three days, uncertainty exists due to models and the potential influences of a stronger wind shear environment. There are also discrepancies in the models. For the U.S. Gulf Coast and Mexico, this storm could definitely be a player by the second week of July, so keep a close eye on its progress. Its final destination and future status will likely depend on its strength as it exits the central Caribbean region. Our top role models have divergent views right now.

My best advice is to pay attention to credible experts and avoid optimists. The National Hurricane Center is always my first go-to source. Moreover, it also monitors other systems in the Atlantic basin. Ben Noll, a meteorologist at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research in New Zealand, is right. The season is going to be long.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2024/06/29/beryl-strengthensthe-caribbean-and-us-on-hurricane-alert/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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