British military unprepared for conflict of any scale, former MoD official warns

The British military is ill-equipped to defend Britain's homeland and is unprepared for conflict of any scale, according to a senior defence official tasked with assessing Britain's military strength.

Rob Johnson, who recently stepped down as head of the MoD's assessment and challenge office, said the British military was operating at a bare minimum, barely able to carry out peacekeeping, humanitarian relief, evacuate civilians from war zones and some sabotage operations.

If it were a larger operation, we would quickly run out of ammunition… Our defences are too thin and we are not prepared to fight and win an armed conflict of any scale, Johnson told the Financial Times. Britain has reached a point where it cannot properly defend its homeland.

His comments come as both the Conservatives and Labour are under pressure to show their commitment to defence ahead of a general election on July 4, a move that takes into account growing global threats and tight public finances.

Johnson said Britain's air defences were inadequate to stop long-range missile attacks, the Royal Navy did not have enough ships to patrol the North Atlantic to monitor and deter Russian submarine activity and the Royal Air Force needed almost twice as many fighter jets as it currently had.

Johnson said that if he were to increase the expeditionary force to a level comparable to that used in the Falklands War or the Iraq War, the British army would be under-equipped and soldiers would be put at risk.

Rob Johnson: The government won't keep the public in the dark about the scale of the threat because they know they're not ready. Jim Wileman/FT

Johnson, a respected academic who previously led Oxford University's Changing Character of War Centre, has led the office since its launch in 2022 for a two-year term that ends in May.

His department, based on a similar office in the U.S. Department of Defense that has been in operation for more than 50 years, was established as a consultative body to prevent groupthink among military leaders.

Johnson said he did not want to be a demagogue and was being realistic about the scenarios his department had been playing out. He said he was deeply concerned about the additional investment the British military needed, particularly to counter the threat from Russia, and had decided to issue a public warning.

Johnson said the government was not giving the public confidence about the scale of the threat because it knew it was unprepared. He added that there was no security risk in being honest because the Russians already knew.

His grim outlook adds to recent warnings from current or recently retired senior British Ministry of Defence officials who say Britain's military must be modernised given the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East and the potential for conflict in the Indo-Pacific.

Johnson said Britain's military was unable to play the global role the government set out in its integrated foreign policy review last year, much less fight a major adversary. He said we had to cut our coats to fit our coats.

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Outgoing Army Chief of Staff Gen. Patrick Sanders said in his farewell address to troops this month that the urgency and need for modernization has never been greater.

The late Air Chief Marshal Edward Stringer, a driving force behind the creation of the MoD's evaluation office, told the FT that Britain had a “stored force” that could perform exceptionally well in wartime and training, adding: “But when you get behind the front door, there are very few products on the shelves and no production lines behind them.

Stringer agreed with Johnson's core analysis, but said the Pentagon must make better use of the additional money.

Johnson said the next government should aim to increase defence spending to at least 3% of GDP. That figure, equivalent to about $80 billion a year, would put Britain on a par with the US, Poland and the Baltic states. He said the spending would allow Britain to modernise its nuclear deterrent and ensure it had a military armed and prepared for 21st century conflict.

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Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has pledged to increase spending from the current 2.3%, or $54 billion, to 2.5% of GDP, or $66 billion a year. Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has said the party would increase spending to 2.5% if it wins the election, but has not set a target date.

Johnson said the RAF should prioritise and equip 265 fighter jets, up from its current fleet of 137 Typhoons and fewer than 30 F-35s.

Next, he said, the Royal Navy would need 25 modern warships, compared with its current two aircraft carriers, six destroyers and 11 frigates. Meanwhile, the military would need to expand from its current strength of 72,500 to 125,000, armed with long-range artillery and long-range firepower, including drones.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (L) and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hold a press conference on aid to Ukraine in April this year. Henry Nicholls/Getty Images

According to Johnson, the scenarios his unit assessed ranged from a near-certain peacekeeping operation to a highly unlikely nuclear war. They also included sabotage, cyberattacks and other so-called gray zone operations that Russia was already conducting against Britain, which Johnson described as happening just below the threshold of war.

He said there was a very real possibility of future attacks on Scottish fishing boats, and that Russia could damage North Sea oil rigs. Would the government consider that an act of war? He asked. In most cases where critical infrastructure is attacked, the answer is yes.

He added that while unlikely, it was also possible that Russia could attack NATO allies such as Estonia or Poland, or attack British naval vessels.

Johnson said Britain must be clear about what it would do if something like this happened, because being clear about the response itself is a deterrent. We can either pretend it won’t happen, or we can prepare for it.

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Military leaders are grappling with how to reassure the public while preparing for a more dangerous world.

Admiral Tony Radakin, Britain's top military commander and chief of the defence staff, tried to strike a balance in a recent speech, stressing that while Britain is secure, that doesn't mean it won't face attack.

But former Chief of the General Staff, General Richard Barron, said the British military had reached the bottom of a trajectory that began with the end of the Cold War. Our military is not up to the task right now. We need to accelerate their modernization and transformation, he said.

The Ministry of Defence said British troops were ready to defend the UK, including against NATO allies.

The spokesperson added that we have fast jets ready 24 hours a day, land-based forces, and a nuclear deterrent at sea. We regularly train to be prepared for any eventuality, including large-scale operations, and we continue to meet all operational commitments.

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