British polls predict a big Labour victory. Labour fears complacency among voters

Labour leader Keir Starmer poses as he visits the Vale Inn in Macclesfield, England, on June 27, 2024. In the final week of the election campaign, Labour outlined plans to expand opportunities for young people.

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London Since Britain's Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called a general election in May, the main story has been that his opposition Labour Party would win a landslide victory.

The voter polls may have varied in scale and methodology, but the results point in one direction, with the centre-left Labour Party leading the Conservatives by around 20 points. According to the Sky News polling tracker, Labour is expected to win around 40 per cent of the vote, with around 20 per cent of support going to the Conservatives.

Reform UK, led by Brexiteer Nigel Farage, is expected to win 16% of the vote after eroding support from the Conservatives, while the Liberal Democrats are expected to get around 11% and the Greens are expected to get 6%. The Scottish National Party is expected to get 2.9%.

Labour candidate and leader Keir Starmer has been active in reducing the level of support the party enjoys, fearing complacency and a sense that it has already won. This stance could lead to voter apathy, low turnout, or a backlash from Conservative voters.

“Labour wants to convince voters that it's absolutely vital that they turn out to vote, because if they don't, the Conservatives will win, and they desperately want people to think they still have a chance, so it's worth going out to vote,” John Curtis, Britain's top pollster, told CNBC.

In the past, the accuracy of British voter polls has been questioned, with previous predictions either overestimating or underestimating support for various parties. These errors were often due to factors that are difficult to control, such as inadequate sampling or voters being “shy” about which party they would support.

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer speaks ahead of the UK general election on July 4, 2024.

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But this year, the polls have tilted heavily in Labour's favour, so experts say even if the numbers are wrong, the overall result will be the same – the opposition will win convincingly.

“My attitude is [that] “Polls should be conducted, but they should not be inhaled,” Curtis said sarcastically. “The point is, you should not look to polls for accurate information, but rather to give you a reasonable indication of where you are going.”

“This election just so happens to be one where one party appears to be so far ahead. [it was] “The polls might have been quite different in 1997, but no one would have noticed,” he said, referring to the year Labour won a landslide victory over the Conservatives, ending their 18-year rule.

Labour's 'rotation'?

The Labour party itself has understandably been keen to downplay the poll results, with a spokesperson telling CNBC that the party does not comment on forecasts “because expectations are varied and volatile”.

“Instead, we are working hard to get the message of change across to voters ahead of the only election they will ever cast on July 4,” the spokesperson said.

On Monday, Keir Starmer urged supporters to keep campaigning until polls close on Thursday, saying no vote should be taken for granted.

“The fight for change is for you, but it will only happen if you vote. That's the message we need to be getting out into every home in the next few hours and days, until 10 p.m. on Thursday night.”

“Nothing can be taken for granted. Every vote must be earned. Polls don't predict the future. We have to get out there,” he told Hitchens' campaign supporters.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer visits Hitchin, Hertfordshire, to campaign for the general election. Photograph date: Monday, 1 July 2024.

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Alastair Campbell, the former Labor campaign and communications director who was one of the key strategists behind the party's name change to New Labour in the 1990s ahead of its landmark election victory in 1997, told CNBC he was skeptical of the current polling of voters.

“I’m really concerned about the way the debates are unfolding right now,” he told CNBC two weeks ago. “Almost everything in the debate right now is about polling.”

“Nobody has voted yet, apart from a few postal ballots. And I don't believe for a second that the Conservative Party is going to be effectively defeated. I just don't believe it,” he said.

“I think there's something very, very wrong with that poll. I could be completely wrong, and it's true that Labour is consistently ahead. But I just wish there was less talk about polls during the election period and more talk about what the party is saying.”

Matt Beech, director of the Centre for British Politics at the University of Hull and an expert in public opinion polling, said Campbell's stance was designed to persuade Labour-leaning voters to vote.

“They want to get as big a majority as possible. They all know that. [the lead-up to the election in] In 1992, opinion polls said Labour would win, but in reality it didn't, giving rise to the phenomenon known as the 'Hermit Conservative'. [But] “They're not really that worried about it. What they want is a 1997-style landslide tsunami,” Beach told CNBC.

He said, “So if you keep hitting that drum, [that the polls are not correct]You will say to Labour voters, 'Go out and vote.' But you will also say, 'We will win comfortably, not because we are afraid we won't actually win, but because we want a majority that will allow us to push our agenda forward, and we hope that this victory means we can serve two terms.'”

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