COVID trend reaches 'high' level in western US, latest CDC data shows

A key indicator tracking the spread of COVID-19 has officially reached “high” levels in the western U.S. states, according to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). But the agency says it’s too early to tell whether this summer’s COVID-19 surge has reached the entire country.

Levels of SARS-CoV-2 virus in wastewater samples are increasing in most parts of the country, according to agency figures through June 27.

Health officials have increasingly relied on analyzing samples taken from sewers to get a sense of COVID-19 trends now that cases are no longer being tested or reported. The CDC also relies on data from emergency departments and hospitals to track the virus.

Nationally, levels of the virus in wastewater are still “low,” according to the CDC. But in the West, preliminary numbers from recent weeks show that this key COVID-19 trend has now passed the threshold the agency considers “high” levels of the virus.

“Summer is back and we’re about to have this ‘summer surge’ of COVID cases, as we call it. You know, we have a surge in the summer, then it tapers off in the fall and then it spikes up more substantially in the winter,” Dr. William Schaffner, a professor at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, told CBS News.

However, the CDC has not said that this year's summer wave has begun.

“In April and May 2024, COVID-19 activity was lower than at any time since the pandemic began. Recent increases should be considered from this baseline,” the CDC said in a statement Friday.

In previous years, COVID-19 levels have spiked in the summer after a dip in the spring, but not always at that specific time of year. Last year, the summer surge didn’t peak until late August or early September.

“While there are indications of a potential start of a summer surge, COVID-19 activity nationwide remains low. CDC will continue to monitor to see if these recent increases persist,” the agency said.

COVID trends highest in Hawaii

Some of the worst COVID-19 trends among Western states have been seen in Hawaii, where sewage levels are now above last winter's peak.

COVID-19-related emergency room visits in Hawaii have also reached some of the worst levels in more than a year, according to CDC data from recent weeks — beyond the peaks of last summer and winter.

These trends may now be showing signs of running out of steam.

CDC forecasters said last week that COVID-19 cases were now “likely declining” in one U.S. state, Hawaii, after weeks of increases. Emergency room visits in areas from Hawaii to Arizona also appear to be flat, far from the peaks of last year’s summer and winter surges.

LB.1 variant increases in the East

The increases come as officials and experts track the emergence of a new variant across the country: the LB.1 variant, a descendant of the JN.1 variant from last winter's surge.

As of early June, the CDC estimates that LB.1 accounted for 30.9% of cases in the New York-New Jersey region. Less than one in ten cases in the western states were due to LB.1 during the same period.

COVID-19 trends have increased in emergency department data from the New York and New Jersey region, but remain far from the levels seen at peaks last winter or summer.

In wastewater, virus trends in the Northeast rank among the lowest of any region and remain at levels still considered “minimal” by the agency.

Coronavirus pandemic Plus Plus Alexander Tin

Alexander Tin is a digital journalist for CBS News based in Washington, D.C. He covers the Biden administration's public health agencies, including the federal response to infectious disease outbreaks like COVID-19.

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