Tories face 'huge blow' as Reform UK popularity soars – ITV Wales poll

An exclusive ITV Comrie Wales poll has shown the Conservative Party at an all-time low in Wales, putting them in a tight race with supporters of Nigel Farage's Reform UK.

A Barn Cymru poll conducted by YouGov for ITV Cymru Wales and Cardiff University suggests the Conservatives' projected 16% vote share would be lower than their 19.6% in 1997, when no Welsh Conservatives were elected.

It is the worst YouGov polling result the Conservatives have ever recorded in Wales and, if repeated on election day, it would be their worst performance in Wales since the 1918 general election.

A Barn Cymru poll found that 40% of Welsh people intend to vote Labour in the upcoming general election, down five percentage points from the previous poll in June.

Comparison with Westminster voting intentions (MRP model) and June poll results:

Dr Jack Larner, from the Centre for Wales Governance at Cardiff University, said the result was a “huge blow” to the Conservatives and showed “the collapse of the Brexit coalition that led them to one of the best results in Welsh history in 2019”.

He said: “Leave supporters are now almost evenly split between Conservatives and Remainers, with Labour making up a fifth of that group.”

“They also cannot expect any real support from the under-65s, and the steep age swings observed in the EU referendum are now working against the Conservatives.

“In this Barn Cymru poll, the Westminster voting intention figures are for the first time derived from an MRP model. This means that we take a general opinion poll (with a slightly larger sample size than usual) and use census information to estimate how different groups in Wales are likely to vote.”

What does this poll mean for Labour?

Labour is expected to make “significant gains”, but its popularity in Wales has fallen in recent months. Last month, Labour lost 5% of voters when ITV Cymru Wales compared Westminster voting intentions in June and July.

Dr Rahner said: “Labour's vote share is similar to that of 2019, but in 2019 they will have the fewest seats in decades and the collapse of the Conservative Party means that Labour will face a much weaker opposition in most seats.”

“So they can expect to make significant gains in the current Conservative seats, but they may not do as well in Plaid Comrie – Labour's two marginal seats, Ynys Mn and Caerfyrddin.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer pictured with First Minister Vaughan Gitting Credit: PA

Recent polling figures show that Labour has not really increased its support significantly since it hit 41% in 2019.

Dr Larner added: “They picked up votes from former Conservative voters (around 10 per cent) but lost votes to Plaid Coombe and the Greens. But in most of their target seats they face a much weaker Conservative Party, suggesting they are on track to make significant gains across Wales.”

Reform Britain's highest ever voter turnout

Dr Larner revealed that Nigel Farage's party had capitalised on the Conservative Party's collapse in polls to get nearly a third of former Conservative voters to say they would vote Reform UK.

He added: “It is very unlikely they will contest any seats in Wales, but there is a chance they will finish the election as the second-largest party in Wales in terms of vote share.”

“As with all polls, there is still a margin of error and it is important to remember that this is just one poll. But it is consistent with previous Barn Cymru polls and the broader trend in UK polling, which shows the Conservatives are headed for a historic defeat.”

Nigel Farage's Reform UK has chosen Gurnos in Merthyr Tydfil to launch its “contract”. Source: PA

Westminster voting intentions at the last poll in June 2024 (compared to December 2023):

The latest ITV Cymru Wales poll could boost Plaid Cymru's hopes of winning three or four seats. Pictured is party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. Source: PA

ITV Cymru Wales political editor Adrian Masters warns of long-term problems for Labour.

While the latest Barn Cymru poll may give Labour time to think about its support in Wales in the long term, there is much worse news for the Conservatives, and it is far more urgent.

Not only will that figure surprise the Conservatives here, but the fact that they are tied with the Reform UK Party in the polls will also frighten them – a symbolic first that the Conservatives do not want to see.

The polls will boost hopes that the Plaid Commissar Party can win three or four seats, and will boost confidence that the Liberal Democrats can once again elect a Welsh MP.

But should Labour be worried about its reduced share? The fact that Labour has declined could suggest that the Conservatives’ warning strategy is working, or it could reflect widespread public criticism of Labour’s record in the Welsh government, including criticism of the new Welsh Labour leader and First Minister, Vaughan Gething. And while there are signs that this will have no material impact on the result this week, it could also suggest that there are long-term problems for Labour in Wales.

The total sample size for YouGovs’ Westminster Voting Intentions MPR model was 3,439 adults. Fieldwork was conducted between 19-30 June. The total sample size for YouGovs’ Westminster Voting Intentions MPR model was 1,072 adults. Fieldwork was conducted between 27 June and 1 July.

For more political debate and discussion, and a lengthy interview with Dr Jac Larner, tune in to Sharp End, ITV Cymru Wales, Tuesday 2 July at 11.15pm. You can watch on ITVX here.

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