UK General Election 2024: What you need to know about election day | Election News

Since British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a surprise general election in late May from a rain-soaked stand outside 10 Downing Street, a campaign marred by political scandal and missteps has unfolded at a breakneck pace.

Political analysts and pollsters predict that the main opposition Labour Party will defeat the Conservative Party in a historic election, after 14 years in power, and now face a runoff with the right-wing populist party Reform UK.

This Thursday, everything will be decided, as British voters head to polling stations across the country to cast their votes in the 2024 general election.

Here's what you need to know about Election Day.

When and how are UK general elections held?

The 2024 UK general election will take place on Thursday 4 July from 7am (6am GMT) to 10pm (9pm GMT).

Registered voters in 650 congressional districts cast their ballots for their preferred candidates at polling places set up on election day, usually at schools or community centers.

The UK uses a long-standing competitive metaphor for voting, the FPTP (Front-Post-Triple) system, whereby the candidate who receives the most votes becomes the Member of Parliament (MP) for that constituency, regardless of whether or not they receive 50% of the votes cast.

FPTP differs from the proportional representation (PR) system used by most European countries, and also from the system used in France (first round on June 30, second round on July 7), where a second round is held in constituencies where no candidate receives a majority of votes.

In a constituency system, seats in the National Assembly are allocated to each party in proportion to the number of votes they received.

Once polls close in the UK, the votes are counted and the MP with the most votes in each constituency is declared the winner in the early hours of July 5 (each constituency gets one seat in Parliament).

If Labour wins a majority of seats as expected, its leader becomes prime minister, and the leader of the party with the second-largest number of MPs usually becomes leader of the opposition. Keir Starmer is Labour leader, and Sunak is Conservative leader in the election.

If no party wins a majority, a deadlocked parliament is declared. If this happens, the largest party can form a coalition with another party.

Why did Rishi Sunak say he would hold elections on July 4th?

General elections in the UK must be held at intervals of at most five years.

The last general election was held in December 2019, which meant Prime Minister Sunak had until December to call an election.

The Prime Minister surprised the nation by declaring that early elections would be held on May 22.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak delivers a rain-soaked speech calling for a general election outside 10 Downing Street on May 22, 2024 [Maja Smiejkowska/Reuters]

John Curtis, professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said the decision remained a complete mystery to those outside Sunack's inner circle.

Curtis said there were a number of theories floating around, including the idea that the Conservatives might not think the economic outlook would improve until the end of the year.

Another possibility is that the ruling Conservative Party is unsure whether it can stop the record number of refugees crossing the English Channel (the sea that separates southern England and northern France).

The Conservatives have made several pledges to stop illegal immigration, including a controversial plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Why are the Conservatives doing so poorly in the polls?

Jonathan Tong, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, told Al Jazeera that the Conservative Party has struggled with issues of trust and competence since winning an overwhelming majority in the last general election in 2019.

The scandal dating back to the Covid-19 pandemic, known as Partygate, has affected public trust in the government and led to Boris Johnson resigning as prime minister in 2022.

Johnson has been accused of holding birthday parties and other events in defiance of the strict lockdown rules imposed on British citizens.

He was replaced by Liz Truss, who sent markets crashing during her tumultuous six-week tenure.

Tong said at this point the Conservatives had lost the trust of the British people, Boris Johnson had gone from being popular to being seen as unreliable, and Labour was soon ahead of the ruling coalition in the opinion polls.

Another scandal recently erupted when the UK Gambling Commission announced it was investigating individuals linked to the party, including Conservative candidates Craig Williams and Laura Saunders, for allegedly placing bets on the July election three days before Sunnack announced the date. The party subsequently dropped Williams and Saunders from its shortlist.

The capacity problem, Tong said, stems from the Conservatives' perception that they have failed to deliver real improvements for the British people over the past 14 years.

He said some things had been good, with inflation falling again and unemployment continuing to fall.

But on the social front, the Conservatives appear to have fallen short of their promises, with NHS waiting lists growing significantly and key policies such as curbs on immigration failing to deliver.

What is the Reform UK party and what are its chances?

The Reform Party, led by Nigel Farage, a prominent populist, ran as the Brexit Party in the 2019 general election, but did not run in constituencies held by the Conservative Party.

It has since failed to win any seats, but recent polls show the renamed party this year challenging the Conservatives for second place.

Their rise was largely fueled by Farage's inflammatory campaigns that were fueled by a wave of patriotic rhetoric focused on immigration.

Curtis said Farage was charismatic and expressive, qualities that stood in stark contrast to Sunack's campaign promise, in which he blundered into abandoning the 80th anniversary of the Normandy landings early.

Curtis said Reform UK's focus on immigration was advertising policy failures rather than addressing the real issues that people who had defected from the Conservative Party had.

If you are unhappy with the government and are pro-Brexit, anti-immigration, go to Reform UK, he said.

Nigel Farage, honorary leader of the British Reform Party, gestures during a press conference in London, England, on June 3, 2024. [Maja Smiejkowska/Reuters]
What is the most likely outcome?

According to recent opinion polls, the Labor Party has the best chance of winning a majority of seats.

Curtis said the polls suggested the Conservatives were at a record low, and the party faced a very difficult mathematical reality because voters were most concentrated in the constituencies they were trying to defend. But unlike 2019, Reform UK would challenge the Conservatives in those areas.

Tong said he expected the voter turnout to be slightly lower than the 67.3% estimated for the last election, which was marked by national excitement over what Britain should do in the 2016 Brexit referendum.

He said voter turnout did not appear to be as strong as in previous elections and there was evidence of some disillusionment among voters with the two main parties that have traditionally dominated British politics, Labour and the Conservatives.

He said Labour's rise was due more to the collapse of the Conservative Party than to any popular policies.

Keir Starmer, leader of Britain's main opposition Labour Party, speaks at an event in Grimsby, northeast England, on June 12, 2024. [Stefan Rousseau/Pool via AFP]

Tong predicted a comfortable landslide victory for Labour, which he said could result in a slightly lower voter turnout than at the last election.

He said current forecasts suggested the Conservatives would win more than 100 seats in this election, a huge drop from the 365 they won in the 2019 general election.

Tong said such an outcome would spark an ideological and political debate at the heart and soul of the right wing of British politics. The Conservatives would have to choose whether to follow Farage’s path and take a tougher stance on immigration and tax cuts, or to try to rebuild themselves as a centre-right party with no ties to Reform Britain.

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