Leading poll predicts Starmers Labour will win stunning UK election | Election News

Barring a major upset in the coming hours, two major polls predict Keir Starmer's Labour Party will win a record-breaking landslide victory in Britain's general election on Thursday.

A final YouGov poll on Wednesday predicted the centre-left party would secure a historic election victory, taking 39% of the vote and 431 of the 650 seats in the lower house of parliament.

What we can be absolutely certain of is the winner. The Labour Party said it was ready to win and it was ready to win big. This election will be like nothing we have ever seen before and Labour has the potential to reverse its worst result since 1935 and achieve a record victory in a single election cycle.

A poll by Survation late on Tuesday suggested there was a 99% chance Labour would win more seats than it did in 1997, when Tony Blair ended 18 years of Conservative rule.

The new prime minister will inherit a country suffering from economic and social difficulties and a deeply divided political system.

The battle between those vying to control the opposition is unpredictable. The right-wing Conservative Party, which has been in power for the past 14 years, is trying to gain popularity and fend off the threat of a hard-right wing led by Nigel Farage, the chief architect of Brexit, who is hoping to boost his Reform UK Party’s popularity.

Toby James, professor of politics and public policy at the University of East Anglia, said the new government would face many serious challenges.

If Labour wins a landslide victory as expected, the results would be as follows: [Tony] Blair's victory [in] The draw is for 1997.

But the situation is much more difficult than the one Blair inherited. The economy was booming in 1997, but growth has slowed in recent years. Prices remain high despite record inflation, James told Al Jazeera. The government's high debt will make it difficult to spend on cash-strapped public services.

From left, top row: Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer, Labour's Keir Starmer, and Scottish National Party leader John Swinney. From left, bottom row: Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey, Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunack, and Reform Party hard-right leader Nigel Farage. [File: AP Photo]

But as the six-week campaign draws to a close, Labour is taking nothing for granted and is urging the British people to vote.

The turnout in the last election in 2019 was 67.3%, down from 68.8% in 2017. The 1997 turnout was relatively high at 71.4%, but lower than the 77.7% in 1992, when Conservative leader John Major won.

Survation said Labour was likely to win 42 per cent of the vote, giving them 484 seats. It added the Conservatives were almost certain to win 23 per cent, down from the last general election, and noted that they had suffered significant losses in the former Conservative heartland.

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has been in office since October 2022, announced that an election would be held in May after economic data showed recovery and inflation was lower than in previous months.

Labour could move towards a majority with the Conservatives as the main opposition party. Given the threat posed by Nigel Farage to the Conservatives and developments in France, the question will be how many seats the Reform Party can win, James said, citing the recent electoral success of Marine Le Pen's far-right movement.

He described Sunak's tenure as short and extremely difficult.

He faced significant challenges due to the aftermath of the pandemic, the inflationary impact of the war in Ukraine, etc. [the] The task of uniting the Conservative Party. Few prime ministers have faced so many important challenges in such a short period of time. The aim was to steady the ship, but there are few significant policy achievements to point to.

Politicians often weaponize immigration to win votes.

In addition to the economy, the party's campaign focused on immigration.

The Conservatives, who led Britain to leave the European Union on a promise to reduce immigration, have failed to achieve that goal.

Net migration to the UK fell by 10% in 2023 to 685,000, but was still above historical averages. Most people travelled to work or study, and there were far fewer irregular migrants and refugees who made the perilous journey across the English Channel from France last year, at 29,437.

Former Conservative prime ministers David Cameron and Theresa May have promised to reduce net immigration to the tens of thousands.

Politicians often weaponize immigration to win votes in the run-up to elections, and there is often fierce competition between political parties over who can impose the toughest policies on refugees, warns Emily McDonnell, UK advocacy and communications director at Human Rights Watch.

She told Al Jazeera that Britain's next government must reset the narrative on immigration and confront the fear-mongering and dehumanizing rhetoric that inevitably emerges after an election.

Labour has pledged to scrap the controversial Rwanda plan, spearheaded by the Conservatives, which would have deported illegal refugees and migrants and allowed them to seek asylum in the African country.

Until now, such flights have been grounded due to legal objections and humanitarian concerns.

McDonnell said abandoning the Rwandan system and resuming asylum processing for irregular arrivals was essential to restoring refugee protection in the UK. But much more is needed to create a fair and humane asylum system and to demonstrate that the UK will do its fair share to protect refugees around the world, including by significantly expanding safe routes, repealing the illegal immigration laws that prevent people from seeking asylum, and introducing strict time limits on detention.

For the past nine months, hundreds of thousands of protesters, including on British university campuses, have called for an immediate ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. [Anealla Safdar/Al Jazeera]

Observers are also watching closely British towns and cities with large Muslim communities, where Labour is expected to show some support given its stance on Israel's war in Gaza.

Starmer, like Sunak, supports Israel and has consistently spoken about Israel's right to defend itself, even as nearly 38,000 Palestinians have been killed.

Palestinian supporters are planning another large demonstration in London on Saturday.

According to the Palestine Solidarity Campaign (PSC) and its partners, police did not designate central London as the start or end point for the march, unlike other protests.

PSC leader Ben Jamal said: Keir Starmer is facing the first test of his government’s willingness to support the right to peaceful protest, including a demonstration near Westminster. London police are threatening to use repressive powers to stop protests near Parliament under a vicious law passed by the Conservative government. [the incoming government] Do you firmly support the right to democratic protest?

Shaista Aziz, who resigned as Labour MP for Oxford in October after six years in office because of Starmer's stance on the Gaza war, said she felt disconnected from the general election.

“Everyone wants to see the end of this disastrous Conservative government that has destroyed the country for 14 years, but I have absolutely no hope of going to the polls this week,” she told Al Jazeera.

The Labour Party must demonstrate strong principled leadership on Gaza, upholding international law and international human rights and humanitarian law, and not creating a false equivalence between occupiers and occupied. So far, the Labour Party has shown itself incapable of doing this.

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