Conservatives likely to collapse in final election results – POLITICO

A landslide victory for Labour would mark a major shift in British politics, forcing the Conservatives out of power after 14 years and five prime ministers, while the country has been divided over Brexit and immigration.

A poll released by More in Common on Wednesday had predicted Labour would win a majority of 210 seats, with Labour up 228 seats to 430, while the Conservatives would lose 239 seats to 126. The Liberal Democrats would return to third place, up 41 seats to 52, while the Scottish National Party would lose 32 seats to 16. The Reform UK Party would win two seats.

A Focaldata poll released on Wednesday predicted Labour would win a larger majority of 238 seats, with Labour taking 444 to the Conservatives’ 108. The Liberal Democrats would be back to third place with 57 seats, while the Scottish National Party would take just 15 of Scotland’s 57 seats. Reform would be back to two seats.

Long-time pollster YouGov accurately predicted a parliamentary deadlock in the 2017 general election in its MRP poll, despite other polls predicting a Conservative majority.

MRP (multilevel regression with post-stratification) polls use much larger sample sizes and look at each individual's voting intentions and demographic characteristics (including age, income, occupation, and education level) as well as past voting behavior.

The pollster then maps these factors to the rest of the country, using data from sources including the latest census to see how many voters in each constituency have those characteristics, allowing for seat-by-seat predictions.

In the House of Commons, 326 of the 650 seats are needed to govern with an overall majority. Labour's last election victory, under Prime Minister Tony Blair, came in 1997 with a 179-seat majority, and the party has won two elections since then with smaller majorities.

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