Labor Party pushes to return to power after 14 years

Labour leader Keir Starmer campaigns ahead of the 2024 general election in Redditch, England, on Wednesday, July 3, 2024.

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London Britain heads to the polls on Thursday, with the ruling Conservative Party set to suffer a historic defeat by the centre-left Labour Party, according to months of opinion polls.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak surprised politicians and the public alike by announcing the vote six weeks early. Most had expected the election to be held later this year, and the recent decline in inflation and the expected interest rate cuts have given voters more time to take a hit on their wallets.

Several smaller parties are competing for seats in the 650-seat House of Commons. They include the Liberal Democrats, the Greens, the Scottish National Party, Plaid Comrie, the Democratic Unionist Party and Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party. Voting takes place in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.

Within the British political system, increasing a party’s share of the popular vote does not necessarily mean it will win more seats in parliament, and it is almost certain that either the Conservatives or Labour under Keir Starmer will take power. This could be achieved by winning an absolute majority or forming a coalition government.

An agreement was announced that the leader of the party with the most seats in parliament would become prime minister.

According to Hana Bunting, a lecturer in quantitative British politics at the University of Exeter, political polls have been pointing to a landslide victory for Labour for almost two years, but the party would need to increase its national vote share by a historic 13% to barely secure a parliamentary majority. That would be a bigger swing than Tony Blair achieved when he defeated John Major in 1997.

A major poll released by YouGov earlier this week reaffirmed Labour's strong lead.

But politicians and Labour warn that the result is not guaranteed and that polls can be inaccurate. More than 100 seats are considered very close, including those currently held by prominent Conservatives, including Treasury Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and Sunack himself.

Thursday's vote is the first general election in the UK since 2019, when then-Conservative leader Boris Johnson defeated Jeremy Corbyn's Labour Party to win the biggest majority since 1987. It was done on a platform promising to complete the “Brexit” process of leaving the politically deadlocked European Union.

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak campaigns during a Conservative Party general election campaign event at the National Military Museum in London, Britain, Tuesday, July 2, 2024.

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Johnson's administration was subsequently marred by several public scandals, including the “Partygate” scandal in which senior politicians flouted lockdown rules during the Covid-19 pandemic, which forced his reluctant resignation in July 2022.

He was succeeded by Liz Truss, who lasted just 44 days before resigning amid a so-called mini-budget crisis that rocked financial markets.

Sunack, a former Conservative chancellor, has since overseen a period of relative political stability, but the country has been suffering from a severe cost-of-living crisis and sluggish economic growth.

The legacy of the 14 years of Conservative rule that followed David Cameron's coalition government in 2010 has been a major theme of the campaign.

Sunnack and Starmer have tried to reassure the public that their party can tackle important issues such as housing, the NHS and defence.

In an early June debate, Sunak claimed Labour’s policy would result in a tax rise of $2,000 ($2,553.73) for “every working family” in the next parliament. Starmer said the figure was “made up” and the party had only proposed tax rises for certain groups.

Citizens can vote for their local candidates from 7 a.m. to 10 p.m. local time, with exit polls released shortly after the polls close.

Ballots will be counted tonight, with results expected Friday morning.

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