The FT's guide to UK election night

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Britain elects its next parliament on Thursday, but the full results won't be known until early Friday morning.

Polls suggest Labour's historic victory after 14 years in power will fundamentally change Britain's political landscape.

Here's what to expect and watch out for on Thursday and Friday.

Timing of Results

The network is scheduled to release the results of an exit poll that estimates the election results at around 10 p.m. on Thursday, seconds after voters are in their nearest polling station. The poll, compiled by polling firm Ipsos, is based on mock ballots filled out at 130 polling stations across the country.

The 2019 exit polls predicted the Conservatives would win 86 seats, six more than the final result, which was very accurate.

Actual precinct results will be revealed bit by bit throughout the night, but may be delayed from the scheduled time depending on how long it takes to count the votes.

Just before midnight, Blythe and Ashington in the north-east of England are expected to be the first to declare, followed by Houghton and Sunderland South.

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The results are expected to start rolling in from around 2am on Friday, with the Financial Times predicting that if the polls are accurate, Labour will likely have a clear majority by 4.15am.

By this time, Sunack's North Yorkshire constituency of Richmond had been declared and he was likely to concede defeat in the primary, making his first speech that night.

In Starmer's London constituency of Holborn and St Pancras, the result is expected to be announced shortly after Sunax, giving him a platform to address voters.

Starmer may have planned a separate appearance after Tony Blair's landslide victory in 1997, giving his formal victory speech in London just hours after giving his acceptance speech from Sedgefield.

Portillo's Moments

With the Conservative vote split, seats previously held by the party could become contested, creating a Portillo moment – a reference to the Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo's unexpected loss of a seat in Labour's landslide victory in 1997.

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Potential labor loss

Polls suggest Labor will make a sizeable national victory, but regional factors and strong personalities could also see Labor candidates lose.

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Rebuilding the Red Wall and securing a majority for the Labour Party

Labour will be keen to reclaim the red wall seats in the north of England it lost to Boris Johnson's Conservatives in the 2019 election.

Some voters are expected to switch parties and return to Labour, while others are expected to support the populist Reform Party.

Reclaiming seats such as Great Grimsby, Cleethorpe and Scunthorpe would be a significant morale boost and would signal that the party is on track to reclaim its historic heartland.

The Conservatives warned Labour of a majority, which is not a technical term but merely an indicator of a potential Labour victory.

Most major opinion polls predict a sizeable majority for Labour, but to secure even a slim majority the shift in favour of Labour would have to be greater than when it won a landslide in 1997.

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Liberal Democrats: Will the conspiracy lead to votes?

Sir Ed Davey spent most of the campaign relentlessly trying to grab attention, falling off paddleboards, bungee jumping and falling off water slides.

Now his party looks set to make a big splash in the polls on Thursday. Some predictions even suggest the Liberal Democrats could become the second-largest party in parliament, pushing for Davie to become leader of the opposition. The last record result was in 2005, when they won 62 seats.

In an optimistic mood, he enlisted activists in a last-minute Project A30 campaign in a town off the A30 highway in the heart of the conservative southwest, an area once considered unreachable.

St Ives, North Cornwall, Honiton, Torbay, South Devon and West Dorset are notable constituencies, but Labour has tacitly conceded seats in them by concentrating its campaigns elsewhere.

While parties often highlight their performances while in office, the Liberal Democrats have made little mention of their coalition government with the Conservatives between 2010 and 2015. In a seven-person debate, Davie’s deputy Daisy Cooper failed to answer a question about university tuition fees tripling while Davie was chancellor.

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Will Nigel Farage enter Parliament?

Reform UK, formerly known as the Brexit Party, is expected to lose dozens of seats to the Conservatives by splitting right-wing votes and fielding Labour or Liberal Democrat candidates.

Of the few seats currently being contested, the most notable is Clacton, where leader Nigel Farage is seeking to become an eighth MP.

Farage sees this year's contests as a springboard for the 2029 election, with his sights set on lifting the Conservatives into third place in several seats.

In 2015, Reform's spiritual predecessor, the UK Independence Party, came second with 120 seats, which Reform will use as an unofficial benchmark for measuring its own attractiveness.

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The collapse of the SNP in Scotland

The Scottish National Party has held most of the county seats in Westminster for nearly a decade, but its 17 years of running the Scottish government have been marred by a series of internal scandals.

The battle in Scotland, traditionally a Labour stronghold, will be shaped by two battles, one in the Midlands and one in the North East.

Progressive voters in Glasgow and Edinburgh backed the SNP in the recent Westminster elections, but Labour and the Scottish Greens (a separate party aligned with the Greens in England and Wales) are making headway in seats that could end up being three-way contests.

In north-east Scotland, the Liberal Democrats are looking to make a breakthrough in a region torn between the SNP and the Conservatives. This rural seat will add to the radically different tapestry that is emerging from the contest.

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