Why July 4th is Historically the Day When Gun Violence Is Most Prevalent in the United States

Violence and mass shootings often increase during the summer months, particularly around July 4, historically one of the deadliest days of the year.

A year ago, a series of shootings left more than a dozen people dead and more than 60 injured during the Fourth of July celebrations. Two years ago, another mass shooting at a Fourth of July parade left seven people dead near Chicago. The mother of a 10-year-old boy paralyzed in the attack said Wednesday that her family would not attend this year’s parade, which is returning for the first time since the shooting.

“I don't know if we'll ever be able to go to the parade again,” said Keely Roberts, who was also injured.

Read more: The price gun violence takes on those who fight against it

The Gun Violence Archive, which tracks mass shootings involving four or more people, whether or not they died, shows that June, July and August had the highest totals of mass shootings in the past decade. The lowest totals were recorded from December to March.

Independence Day tops the list with 58 mass shootings in the past 10 years, followed closely by July 5, records show.

“It's the gathering, the leisure, the drinking,” said James Alan Fox, a criminologist and professor at Northeastern University who oversees a database on mass killings maintained by The Associated Press and USA Today in partnership with the university.

In the first half of this year, there were 19 mass shootings in the United States, including 14 shootings that left at least four people dead, according to the database. In 2023, the country recorded the highest number of mass shootings39 since tracking began.

Researchers point to a combination of factors that have historically caused an increase in violence and shootings during the summer months.

Schools closed for summer

Mass shootings are much more likely to occur in a home, and more often than not, the victims are related to the shooter or are a close acquaintance.

“When school is out, families spend more time together, kids are often home all day, and there’s a greater likelihood of more victims when everyone is under the same roof,” said Jesenia Pizarro, a criminology professor at Arizona State University.

Teens also have more free time. It's like opportunities change in the summer, she said.

After two mass shootings within hours of each other in Dayton, Ohio, in late June left three people dead and eight injured, police said one of the shootings took place at a vacant home where hundreds of teens and young adults had gathered.

It could have been much worse, said Eric Henderson, the city's deputy chief, who noted that this was the third major party since mid-June where trouble broke out after youths took over a vacant house.

No more social events, no more drinking

Family reunions, block parties and festivals in the summer bring more people together and create more opportunities for trouble, especially when alcohol is involved.

That's not to say that these kinds of things don't happen in March or January. They're just less frequent than in the summer, said Alex Piquero, a criminologist at the University of Miami. We know that almost every summer there's a spike in violence. So I expect it to happen this summer. I expect it to happen next summer and the summer after that.

The likelihood of being a victim of a mass shooting is still extremely low, but that means there is an increased risk of casualties if something happens at a crowded event.

Over the first weekend of summer, several shootings left several people dead or injured at large gatherings, including in Montgomery, Alabama, where gunfire erupted at an unauthorized street party with more than 1,000 people. Police said nine people were shot and investigators found more than 350 spent shell casings.

Tempers flare with high temperatures

Several studies have linked warm weather and above-normal temperatures to elevated moods, and not just in the summer. They have also linked rising temperatures to increased violent crime, although other factors often come into play.

Jillian Snider, a former New York City police officer who is now a lecturer at John Jay College of Criminal Justice, said she has seen this phenomenon firsthand in neighborhoods where a lack of air conditioning has pushed people out onto their stoops or into parks on sweltering days.

It makes people a little angry because they have nowhere to calm down and tensions rise, she said. You have no way to escape it, you just get angrier.

Associated Press journalists Sharon Johnson in Atlanta and Sophia Tareen in Chicago contributed to this report.

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