UK General Election 2024: 5 Key Points | General Election 2024

1. Labour heads to record election victory in Britain

Starmer's Labour Party is expected to achieve a stunning turnaround from the party's disastrous 2019 results, with a landslide victory expected to rival Tony Blair's maiden election victory in 1997.

Labour was forecast to win 408 of the 650 seats, well over the 326 needed for a majority, and several seats would go to Labour, including Tamworth and Lichfield in the Midlands, which would give them a lead of more than 20 points over the Conservatives.

The first to rise, South Swindon in southwest England, saw a 16.4 percentage point swing after Sunak switched from the Conservatives to Labour. That would be a huge jump over the 12.7 percentage points needed to win an overall majority in the UK parliament and the biggest swing for a party to win in Britain since World War II.

Five years ago, few politicians or pundits would have predicted Labour could recover so quickly, but the party that won was aided by a divided opposition, with Nigel Farage’s revolting right-wing Reform UK party stealing votes from a Conservative Party weakened and damaged by the unpopular tenures of Sunak’s predecessors, Boris Johnson and Liz Truss.

2. There were more votes against the Conservatives than for Labour.

The Conservatives’ support plummeted, while Labour’s rose slightly. Sunnack’s party claimed more than two-thirds of the seats, with support at around 22.3%, a massive 20 percentage points drop from the 42.4% it achieved in 2019.

The party was expected to win 136 seats, the worst election result in the three-century history of British democracy. Eight members of the Conservative government had lost their seats by 5am, a record number led by Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and House of Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt. In Wales, the party lost all its seats.

However, Labour's vote share was 36.3%, 4.2 percentage points higher than the previous election. However, Labour's overall vote share was lower than Blair's victories in 1997 and 2001, but not in 2005.

In Nuneaton in the Midlands, Labour won a previously Conservative seat with a significant majority of 13,144 seats. The Conservatives' vote share fell by 32.7 percentage points, while Labour's vote share increased by 5.4 percentage points.

British voters have clearly not forgiven the Conservatives for a string of disasters, most recently the disastrous mini-budget of Sunnack’s predecessor, Liz Truss, in September 2022. The budget saw unfunded tax cuts that sent mortgage costs soaring for ordinary Britons, and interest rates soaring amid concerns about the UK’s public finances.

3. The Scottish independence movement suffered a major blow.

The previously dominant Scottish National Party has been pushed out for the first time in a decade, and the fight for independence has been put on hold. The SNP, which won 48 seats in Scotland in 2019, was expected to win eight. Labour, which won just one seat in 2019, had won 35 seats by 5am, including all of Glasgow’s seats.

The SNP failed in its bid to secure Scottish independence in a 2014 referendum, but has won a majority of seats in every UK general election since 2015 and has run Scotland's local government since 2007.

It campaigned on the claim that a majority in Scotland's 57 seats would give it the power to renegotiate a second independence referendum, but the party's crushing defeat has now put the issue on the back burner.

4. Nigel Farage of the far-right Reform Party wins a few seats in the UK

Pro-Brexit, anti-immigrant Nigel Farage has won his eighth attempt at a seat in the UK Parliament alongside three others, forming a small but potentially noisy bloc in Westminster. Farage, currently the MP for Clacton in eastern England, is already a well-known figure in the media, but leading a smaller party in Westminster would give him even more exposure.

The party won four seats, down from the initial prediction of 13, taking Great Yarmouth, Boston and Skegness from the Conservatives, and retaining Ashfield in the East Midlands, where Lee Anderson defected from the Conservatives to lead the party. However, Labour held on to two seats in Barnsley, Yorkshire, by around 8,000 and 5,000 votes respectively. Reform UK was expected to win both seats.

The point is that Reform UK came second in dozens of seats, particularly in areas that previously backed Brexit, positioning itself as a party to challenge Labour in future elections if Starmer faltered and lost popularity.

5. British politics became more unstable

The last election, five years ago, saw talk of a reshaping of British politics as Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party took over traditional working-class areas from Labour, largely because voters there were willing to back him to get Brexit done.

Labour needed a record-breaking swing in seats to win even a single majority, but as the result came in, it became clear that Labour would do much better, as voters focused on the Tories' economic performance while in office.

Starmer’s victory suggests that there has been no long-term realignment, but it also suggests that the old tribal loyalties that people habitually vote for in British politics are not as strong as they once were. British voters are prepared to judge politicians harshly if they are perceived as having failed. A landslide victory in one election does not mean that defeat in the next is impossible.

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