Hurricane Beryl increasingly likely to impact the United States

MIAMI, FLORIDA – JULY 01: John Cangialosi, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane … [+] At center, a satellite image of Hurricane Beryl, the first hurricane of the 2024 season, is inspected at the National Hurricane Center on July 1, 2024 in Miami, Florida. As of Monday afternoon, the storm, centered 30 miles west-northwest of Carriacou Island, became the most powerful hurricane of this time of the season in that area of ​​the Atlantic. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

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Hurricane Beryl continues to be a resilient and puzzling storm. It was already historic as the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic basin. However, hurricane experts marveled at how the storm maintained or gained intensity amid wind shear values ​​that many forecast models had suggested would weaken it. Track forecasts are generally better, on average, than intensity forecasts, and that was the case with Beryl. As the hurricane passes over the Yucatan Peninsula at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly clear that a U.S. landfall is possible. Here is the latest.

If you live between Brownsville and Corpus Christi, your hurricane alerts should be active in terms of preparation. Let's start with the good news, the National Hurricane Center reports that Beryl has plateaued or filled out a bit…the aircraft was no longer reporting an eyewall and the presentation of Beryl's inner core by the radar in Cancun, Mexico has degraded. The questions of the day are: what is Beryl's curve as it enters the Gulf of Mexico? and how strong will it be?

The NHC discussion says that the subtropical ridge north of Beryl that has been steering it for several days now will erode into the western Gulf of Mexico from a longwave trough over the central United States. Additionally, an upper-level low observed retrograding westward in the Gulf of Mexico could also exert more poleward steering in the western Gulf of Mexico. This is weather jargon that essentially says that steering currents could likely become more favorable for a turn, especially if Beryl gains strength. Wind shear is expected to weaken, and some of the more reliable models suggest further intensification over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane Beryl's predicted path as of Friday morning.

NOAA

Whether or not the storm makes direct landfall in Texas, the Texas-Mexico border region could see 6 to 12 inches of rain and significant flooding. High winds, storm surge and possible tornadoes are also possible as Hurricane Beryl approaches the coast. The likely impacts to the United States will begin later this weekend, which gives plenty of time to prepare.

Sea surface temperature and wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico

CIMSS Tropical Webpage

Beryl has a history of intensifying quickly, so it is important not to make assumptions about its strength based on the previous night. You need to monitor the storm's progress. There is a lot of elevated ocean heat in the Gulf of Mexico right now. At times, it appears that the energy in the water may have offset the wind shear conditions, which will become more favorable.

Beryl's potential precipitation.

NOAA

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