US dollar's slide pauses after quiet start to the week

Here's what you need to know on Monday, July 8:

The US dollar (USD) remains resilient against its major rivals as the new week begins. After losing nearly 1% and ending a four-week rally in the previous week, the US dollar index is trading in a tight range around 105.00. The Sentix Investor Confidence report for July will be featured on the European economic docket. Later in the day, data on the development of US consumer credit in May will be examined for further momentum.

US Dollar Price in the Last 7 Days

The table below shows the percentage change of the US Dollar (USD) against major listed currencies over the last 7 days. The US Dollar was the weakest against the British Pound.

USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -1.10% -1.28% 0.10% -0.29% -1.13% -0.75% -0.38% EUR 1.10% -0.41% 0.91% 0.51% -0.15% 0.04% 0.42% GBP 1.28% 0.41% 1.30% 0.93% 0.27% 0.46% 0.84% ​​JPY -0.10% -0.91% -1.30% -0.39% -1.17% -0.86% -0.46% CAD 0.29% -0.51% -0.93% 0.39% -0.80% -0.47% -0.09% AUD 1.13% 0.15% -0.27% 1.17% 0.80% 0.19% 0.64% NZD 0.75% -0.04% -0.46% 0.86% 0.47% -0.19% 0.40% CHF 0.38% -0.42% -0.84% ​​0.46% 0.09% -0.64% -0.40%

The heatmap shows the percentage changes of major currencies relative to each other. The base currency is selected in the left column, while the quote currency is selected in the top row. For example, if you select the US dollar in the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Data released Friday by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) increased by 206,000 in June. While that was above market expectations of 190,000, the dollar struggled to find demand as the BLS also announced that it had revised down May’s NFP increase from 272,000 to 218,000. Other details from the report showed that the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, while annual wage inflation slowed to 3.9%, from 4.1% in May.

The New Popular Front (Nouveau Front populaire) has won the second round of the French legislative elections, securing 182 seats in the National Assembly, but falling short of the 289 seats needed to secure an absolute majority. President Macron’s Alliance Ensemble came in second, with 163 seats, ahead of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN), which secured 143 seats. There was no notable reaction to the development, and EUR/USD was last seen virtually unchanged on the day at around 1.0830.

GBP/USD has benefited from the selling pressure surrounding the dollar and gained more than 1% last week. The pair remains in a consolidation phase slightly above 1.2800 in the European morning on Monday.

The USD/JPY pair recorded marginal losses on Thursday and Friday. At the start of the new week, the pair is fluctuating in a narrow range around 161.00.

Gold gained momentum and climbed to a fresh multi-week high above $2,380 ahead of the weekend as U.S. Treasury yields declined after the U.S. jobs data. XAU/USD struggled to extend its rally and is consolidating gains around $2,380.

Euro FAQ

The euro is the currency of the 20 countries of the European Union that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most traded currency in the world, after the US dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion per day. EUR/USD is the most traded currency pair in the world, accounting for approximately 30% of all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%), and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB), located in Frankfurt, Germany, is the central bank of the eurozone. It sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. Its primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its main tool is to raise or lower interest rates. Relatively high interest rates, or the expectation of higher rates, generally benefit the euro and vice versa. The Governing Council of the ECB makes monetary policy decisions at meetings that are held eight times a year. Decisions are made by the heads of the eurozone's national banks and six permanent members, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), are an important econometric element for the euro. If inflation rises more than expected, particularly if it exceeds the ECB’s 2% target, it forces the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates relative to its peers are generally beneficial for the euro, as they make the region more attractive to international investors to place their money there.

The data released helps assess the health of the economy and can have an impact on the euro. Indicators such as GDP, manufacturing and services PMIs, employment and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment, it can also encourage the ECB to raise interest rates, which will directly strengthen the euro. Conversely, if economic data is weak, the euro risks falling. Economic data from the four largest economies in the eurozone (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are particularly important, as they account for 75% of the eurozone economy.

Another important metric for the euro is the trade balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after export products, its currency will gain value only because of the additional demand created by foreign buyers looking to buy these goods. Therefore, a positive net trade balance strengthens a currency and vice versa in the case of a negative balance.

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