Netanyahu faces delicate balancing act in US after Biden leaves office

Reuters

US President Joe Biden (R) visited Israel just days after the October 7 Hamas attack

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is traveling to the United States this week, under pressure from Israelis and the U.S. administration to end the Gaza war. How might the political turmoil in Washington influence that trip and future relations?

Mr Netanyahu is expected to meet Joe Biden if the president has recovered from Covid-19 and address a joint session of Congress, the only foreign leader to do so for a fourth time.

The trip offers him an opportunity to mend relations with Washington after months of tensions over his hardline approach to the war, and an opportunity to try to convince the Israelis that he has not undermined relations with their most important ally.

But that decision is overshadowed by President Biden's decision not to run for reelection, underscoring political uncertainties over Israel's next White House partner and perhaps eclipsing some of the attention on Mr. Netanyahu's visit.

The prime minister was the subject of much unwanted attention in Israel until he boarded the plane.

A protest movement demanded that he stay home and focus on a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free the Israeli hostages.

“Until he signs the deal that's on the table, I don't see how he can fly across the Atlantic to address the political chaos in America,” said Lee Siegel, one of the family members who came to protest. His brother Keith, 65, is a prisoner in Gaza.

This trip is a political move, he added, unless Mr. Netanyahu stops being an obstacle and signs the ceasefire agreement.

Mr. Siegel expressed the widely held view that Mr. Netanyahu is slowing down the process for his own political reasons, unnerving his negotiators when he recently imposed new conditions on talks that appeared to be moving forward.

Lee Siegel's brother Keith is one of the hostages believed to still be in Gaza

The prime minister has been accused of bowing to pressure from two far-right ministers who threatened to overthrow his government if he made concessions to Hamas.

Those perceptions added to the frustrations of the White House, which announced the latest negotiating formula and expressed optimism that a deal could be reached.

Mr. Biden remains one of the most pro-Israel presidents to sit in the Oval Office, a self-described Zionist who has been lauded by Israelis for his support and empathy, cemented by his flight to Israel just days after the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks.

But since then he has been concerned about the price to pay for a total victory against Hamas in Gaza, as Mr Netanyahu is demanding.

The administration is frustrated by the Israeli prime minister's rejection of a post-war solution involving the creation of a Palestinian state.

She is angry with him for resisting calls to do more to protect Palestinian civilians and increase aid to them. She faces a domestic backlash over the rising death toll in Gaza. And she fears the conflict is spreading to the region.

Protesters at home want Mr Netanyahu to focus on reaching a ceasefire deal with Hamas to free Israeli hostages

As Joe Biden's presidency weakens amid a swirl of controversy over his abilities, analysts say he may have less room to keep up the pressure on the Israeli prime minister.

But Mr Biden's decision to withdraw from the race may have actually strengthened his position, says Ehud Barak, a former Israeli prime minister and critic of Mr Netanyahu.

He is not a lame duck when it comes to foreign policy, in a way he is more independent (because) he does not have to consider any impact on voters, Mr Barak told the BBC.

As for Israel, it probably feels freer to do what really needs to be done.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak says inviting Netanyahu to Congress to speak was a 'mistake'

Mr. Barak said it was a mistake for Congress to invite Mr. Netanyahu to speak, saying that many Israelis blame him for the policy failures that allowed the Hamas attack, and three in four Israelis want him to resign.

This man does not represent Israel, he said. He has lost the trust of the Israelis. And it sends a bad signal to the Israelis, probably a bad signal to Netanyahu himself, when the American Congress invites him to appear as if he is saving us.

Whatever his policy, Mr Netanyahu insists that military pressure must continue because it has significantly weakened Hamas after a series of strikes against the military leadership.

In comments before leaving Israel, he suggested that this would be the tone of his meeting with President Biden.

It will also be an opportunity to discuss with him how to advance in the coming months the goals that are important to both our countries, he said, namely securing the release of all our hostages, defeating Hamas, confronting the terrorist axis of Iran and its proxies, and ensuring that all citizens of Israel return safely to their homes in the north and south.

He should bring the same message to Congress, seeking to anchor the bipartisan support that is so important to Israel.

In fact, Mr. Netanyahu’s policies have undermined that bipartisan support. Republicans are rallying behind him, but criticism from Democrats is mounting.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer recently caused a minor earthquake in Washington when he stood up in the chamber and said that Mr. Netanyahu was one of the obstacles standing in the way of lasting peace with the Palestinians.

“I hope the prime minister will understand the concern of many members of Congress and address it,” former US ambassador to Israel Thomas Nides told the BBC over the weekend, speaking at one of several rallies calling for the hostages' release.

This includes humanitarian issues and saying that this fight is not against the Palestinian people, but against Hamas.

It’s a message that Kamala Harris would repeat if she were to become the Democratic candidate. American policy would not change: she would commit to Israel’s security while pushing for an end to the Gaza conflict and a plan for the Day After, embedded in a regional peace with the Arab states.

But there might be a difference in tone.

“Ms. Harris does not share Mr. Biden’s long history and emotional ties to Israel. She is from a different generation and may be more relatable to the younger elements of the Democratic Party,” said Mick Mulroy, a former assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East.

“This is a position that will likely include restrictions on weapons and ammunition from the United States for use in Gaza,” he said.

EPA

Experts say US policy toward Israel is unlikely to change under a possible Kamala Harris presidency, but there could be a change in tone.

Mr Netanyahu may well use the visit to shift the focus from the Gaza controversy to the Iranian threat, a topic with which he is much more comfortable, especially after the recent escalation with Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

But its main audience will be domestic, says Tal Shalev, diplomatic correspondent for the Israeli daily Walla News.

He wants to restore his image as Mr. America, she says, the man who can best present Israel to the United States, and restore his image that was shattered by the October 7 attacks.

When he goes to the United States and speaks before Congress and [has] “A meeting at the White House, for his electoral base, is the return of old Bibi,” she said, referring to the prime minister by his nickname. “It was not the failed Bibi who was responsible for October 7. It is the old Bibi who goes to Congress and receives standing ovations.”

Reuters

Many believe Mr Netanyahu (right) is playing for time, hoping that Donald Trump will win the US presidential election and ease the pressure on him.

It also gives him an opportunity to strengthen his ties with former President Donald Trump at a time of great political instability in Washington.

Netanyahu wants President Trump to win, she said, and he wants to make sure he and President Trump are on good terms before the election.

There is a widespread view that Mr Netanyahu is playing for time, hoping that a Trump victory could alleviate some of the pressure he faces from the Biden administration.

There is a near-universal perception that Netanyahu is impatient for a Trump victory, assuming he can then do whatever he wants, writes Michael Koplow of the Israels Policy Forum.

Biden won't pressure him on a ceasefire or on West Bank settlements and settler violence… There are plenty of reasons to doubt this reading of the landscape under a Trump restoration, but Netanyahu likely subscribes to it.

The question is whether this pressure on Biden will ease as he withdraws from the presidential race, or whether he will actually use his remaining months in office to focus on ending the Gaza war.

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