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UK unemployment falls, wages growth hits two-year low | UK unemployment and employment statistics

UK unemployment falls, wages growth hits two-year low | UK unemployment and employment statistics
UK unemployment falls, wages growth hits two-year low | UK unemployment and employment statistics

 


The UK jobs market defied predictions of a further weakening in June, with official figures showing unemployment fell but wages growth slowed to its lowest level in two years.

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 4.4% to 4.2% in the three months to June, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

However, wage growth excluding bonuses was 5.4% year-on-year in the three months to June, down from 5.7% in the previous three months and the slowest pace since 5.2% in the year to July 2022.

Taking inflation into account, wages rose 1.6 percent, meaning many workers will see their standard of living continue to improve.

The vacancy rate also declined, further demonstrating that the job market is returning to pre-pandemic levels.

Analysts were divided over how the figure might affect the Bank of England's interest rate decision when policymakers meet next month.

The National Institute of Economics and Social Research said that even though wages have fallen, rising wages could lead to higher inflation and require central banks to keep interest rates high for a long period of time.

The report said that continued strong wages growth has raised concerns that inflation could pick up, which could make the Bank of England cautious about further rate cuts.

Consultancy Capital Economics says the downward trend in wages growth is enough to increase the chances that the Bank of England will cut interest rates twice this year by a quarter of a percentage point, from 5% to 4.5%.

Traders reacted positively to the figures, with the pound up about half a cent, or 0.33%, against the dollar on Tuesday, reaching $1.2809, its highest level since August 5.

The growth rate for total pay, including bonuses, fell to a much lower 4.5% from 5.7% after a survey of employers found that many sectors were reluctant to hire staff. However, the data was distorted by a one-off bonus paid to NHS staff in June 2023.

The inactive population remains high at 9.41 million, an increase of 350,000 from 2023, or 22.2% of the working-age population, as many people report that they are unable to work due to poor health.

Julia Turney, partner at consultancy Barnett Waddingham, said: “The workforce we are dealing with today is older, more remote and more mentally ill than ever before.

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In fact, earlier this year the British Mental Health Association reported that one in nine British adults experienced significant stress last year and took time off work because of it.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves is under pressure to increase funding for mental health services to help people get back to work when she announces her budget later this year.

She said: Today’s figures show that more needs to be done to support people to get into work, because everyone who can work should be working.

This will be included in the Budget later this year, which will see us make tough decisions on spending, welfare and taxation to rebuild Britain by fixing the foundations of our economy and making every part of our country a better place to live.

Reeves is scheduled to release his first budget proposal on October 30.

Wage growth in the financial and business services industry was higher than in other industries, at 6.2 percent per year.

The ONS said: The construction sector had the smallest annual full-time wage growth of any sector, at 3.5%. Manufacturing had the largest wage growth, at 6.7%, including bonuses, in April-June 2024.

Sources

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2/ https://www.theguardian.com/business/article/2024/aug/13/uk-unemployment-falls-wages-growth-inflation

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