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The United States faces two global threats: China, Russia and itself

The United States faces two global threats: China, Russia and itself
The United States faces two global threats: China, Russia and itself

 


Inflection Points September 28, 2024 8:00 a.m. ET Print this page The United States faces two global threats: China, Russia and itself

By Frederick Kempe

NEW YORKTwo dark clouds hung over the United Nations General Assembly this week in New York. The first was the growing peril of the Sino-Russian common cause. The second was uncertainty about whether U.S. leaders would be able to meet the challenge after the November election.

It is impossible to separate the two issues, as the disruptive dangers posed by Sino-Russian combinations fueling Russia's war in Ukraine, fueling threats from Iran and its proxies in the Middle East and escalation of Tensions in Asia can only be challenged and contained through firm and confident measures. , far-sighted American leadership alongside its partners and allies.

Speaking at the Atlantic Council's first Global Forum on the Future in New York this week, former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told me in an on-stage interview that she considers our emerging times as more dangerous than the Cold War. This is due to growing global threats that face the perils of what she calls the four horsemen of the Apocalypse-populism, nativism, isolationism and protectionism.

The United States, Rice argued, must make both a statement and a reality about America's desire to remain engaged in the world, because great powers do not care about their own affairs. And if we don't shape the international environment, others will. . . powers like China and Russia.

I just hope that we in the United States can recognize it as such, she added, and not fall into the impression that we can just leave the world to its own devices.

We are determined to stop this

Hypocrisy is nothing new in world affairs, but it's hard to compete with China's words about the preeminence of national sovereignty when compared to its leading role in Russia's efforts to crush Ukraine. Without Beijing, senior U.S. officials say Russian President Vladimir Putin would not be able to continue his deadly and large-scale criminal war in Ukraine, now in its third year.

Top U.S. and European officials find their Chinese counterparts unwavering when asked to scale back their support for Russia's war, more than on almost any other issue. A senior U.S. official I spoke with recently estimated that Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Putin have had more than sixty personal meetings and a thousand hours of conversation as leaders of their countries. This allowed them to advance their common cause of undermining U.S. global leadership, despite lingering historical grievances and tensions between their nations.

Senior Biden administration officials, speaking to global partners on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly this week, share intelligence with anyone who will listen that confirms China's disconcerting increase in its support for Russia's war in Ukraine.

Although it appears that China has not yet supplied any weapons itself, its support for the Russian defense industry includes myriad components and semiconductor chips for Russian weaponry, chemical components for its explosives, machine tools for its industrial defense machine and cutting-edge technology that kills. Ukrainian civilians and destroyed their cities and infrastructure. In addition, some components supplied by American companies to Chinese companies are resold to other Chinese companies, which then ship them to Russia.

China's support makes all the difference. For example, a senior American official told me that Chinese aid had enabled Russia to increase its production of tanks from one hundred to a thousand per year.

We are determined to put an end to this, Nicholas Burns, the US ambassador to China, said at the Transatlantic Geoeconomics Forum, also held this week in New York and co-hosted by the Atlantic Council. and the German think tank Atlantik-Brcke.

We have sanctioned more than three hundred Chinese companies in recent months, Burns said. Unfortunately, we have not seen a change in Chinese behavior. And so they should expect us to continue this punitive effort to make clear that we are not going to stand idly by while China significantly helps Russia strengthen itself. [not only] its weapons potential, but also its defense industrial base.

The Russia-China relationship is not only an issue for U.S. leaders, but also for U.S. partners around the world. It is Russian-Chinese support for Tehran, and through Iran for its proxies, that has imperiled Israel and made the Middle East a more dangerous place as the region faces the threat of a wider war. It is Russia and China's support for Pyongyang that makes North Korea an even more dangerous nuclear weapons state.

Meanwhile, Pyongyang supplies munitions and ballistic missile trains to Moscow, and Tehran supplies short-range ballistic missiles and armed drones. Together, this meeting of tyrants threatens not only Ukraine but also Asia and the Middle East.

Outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told Washington Post columnist Josh Rogin this week that aggressive dictatorships in Asia, such as China and North Korea, would be emboldened if Russia were allowed to violate the sovereignty of Ukraine with impunity.

That's why I said that today's Ukraine could be tomorrow's East Asia, Kishida told Rogin. And this is precisely why I also reiterated that the security of the Euro-Atlantic area and the Indo-Pacific region are inseparable.

Slam them together

What can the United States and others do about this growing threat?

Classic geopolitical discussions suggest that we must either get rid of China or Russia through incentives and diplomacy, as then-Secretary of State Henry Kissinger did with China in the 1970s, or frustrate and increase the cost of their ambitions.

At the Global Future Forum, Rice outlined an approach for whoever is elected president of the United States in November.

Instead of trying to separate China and Russia, it would pit them against each other and not only force them to face the consequences of their actions, but also reveal how little they have in common beyond their common cause against the United States and its allies.

Russian leaders cannot be happy about China supplanting them in Central Asia, Rice said, nor can China be happy about the Houthis, Iran's proxies, disrupting the sea lanes that primarily carry Chinese goods .

Beyond that, she added, Chinese banks that support what the Chinese are doing to support the Russian effort, let's not let them get away with it. . . . We need to start imposing consequences on this collaboration.

Whoever is elected in the US presidential election in November will face the same global context. So the only question is to what extent the newly elected president understands and responds to it. The lesson of history on this subject is sobering.

Before World War II, Rice said, I don't think Hitler's Germany, Imperial Japan and Mussolini's Italy were really friendly. But they caused a lot of problems in the meantime. She views China, Russia and Iran in this context and therefore argues that they must be held accountable.

Rice concluded that the real question for the next U.S. president is whether Russia and China are shaping the global future or whether the United States is doing so with its allies. For all the confusing noise of the current presidential campaign, this will be the most crucial generational challenge for the new commander in chief.

Frederick Kempe is president and CEO of the Atlantic Council. You can follow him on X: @FredKempe.

This edition is part of the Frederick Kempes Inflection Points newsletter, a chronicle of dispatches from a world in transition. To receive this newsletter throughout the week, sign up here.

Further reading

Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping shake hands during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Astana, Kazakhstan, July 3, 2024. Sputnik/ Sergei Guneev/Pool

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