Kamala Harris slightly favorite to win US election as she leads narrowly in key states

The US presidential election will take place on November 5. According to analyst Nate Silver's aggregate national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49,346.0, a slight widening of the contest from last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49,246.2.

President Joe Biden's final standing before his withdrawal as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit against Trump of 45,241.2.

A debate will take place Tuesday evening US time between vice presidential candidates Democrat Tim Walz and Republican JD Vance. Vice presidential debates in previous elections have not had a significant influence on the vote.

The American president is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on its population) and its senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-takes-all basis, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

The Electoral College is skewed in Trump's favor relative to the national popular vote, with Harris needing at least two popular vote victory points in Silver's model to be the Electoral College frontrunner.

In Silvers polling averages, Harris leads Trump by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). If Harris wins all of these states, she will likely win the Electoral College by a margin of at least 276,262. Trump is ahead by less than a point in North Carolina (16 electoral votes) and Georgia (16), and if Harris wins both, she will win by 308,230.

In the Silvers model, Harris has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 54% last Monday but down from her high of 58% two days ago. Earlier this month, there were large differences in the probability of victory between the Silvers model and the FiveThirtyEight model, which was more favorable to Harris. But those models have nearly converged, with FiveThirtyEight now giving Harris a 59% win probability.

There are still more than five weeks until Election Day, so the polls could shift in favor of either Trump or Harris between now and then. Harris' lead of one to two points in key states is tenuous, which is why Trump is still considered to have a good chance of winning.

Silver wrote on September 1 that the 2020 and 2016 polls were biased against Trump, but the 2012 polls were biased against Barack Obama. In the last two midterm elections (2022 and 2018), the polls were good. It is plausible that there will be an error in the polls this year, but it is impossible to predict which candidate such an error would favor.

On Sunday, Silver said that if there was a systematic three or four point error in the polls favoring Trump or Harris, that candidate would sweep all the key states and easily win the electoral college. There are other scenarios in which a candidate underperforms in poll numbers for certain demographics, but outperforms with other demographics.

I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered the grim poll and by-election results in Canada for the ruling center-left Liberals ahead of elections expected by October 2025 , a terrible poll for British Labor Prime Minister Keir Starmer, the new French Prime Minister, German state elections and a victory for the Socialists in the Sri Lankan presidential election.

Economic data revised upwards

Last Thursday, a revised estimate of US GDP for the June quarter was released. There has been a sharp upward revision in real personal disposable income compared to previously published figures. This resulted in an upward revision of the personal savings rate to 4.9% in July, from the previously reported 2.9%, and it was 4.8% in August.

With these upward revisions, the Silvers Economic Index, which has an average of six indicators, now stands at +0.25, up from +0.09. As the incumbent's candidate, a better economy than previously thought should help Harris.

The coalition takes a narrow lead in Essential

In Australia, a national Essential poll, taken in September 1822 with a sample of 1,117, gave the Coalition a lead of 4,847 (including undecided voters) after a tie of 4,848 in early September. This is the first time that the coalitions have led the Essential poll since mid-July.

Primary votes were 35% for the Coalition (steady), 29% for Labor (down one), 12% for the Greens (down one), 8% for One Nation (steady), 2 % for UAP (up one), 9% for all others (up one). ) and 5% undecided (stable).

The Coalition holds a narrow lead in the latest Essential poll. Steven Markham/AAP

Anthony Albanese's net approval increased five points since August to 5, with 47% disapproving and 42% approving. Peter Dutton's net approval was down one to zero.

Concerning the regulation of social media, 48% consider it too weak, 43% fairly fair and 8% too strict. 6,717 voters supported imposing an age limit on children being able to access social media (6,815 in July). By 7,112 voters, they supported doxing (the public disclosure of personally identifiable information) as a criminal offense (6,219 in February).

In 4918 voters supported Labour's Help to Buy scheme, and in 5713 they supported the Build to Rent scheme. The questions provide details that few voters know.

Voters were told the Liberals and Greens had teamed up to delay Labour's housing policy in the Senate. In 4822, voters believed that the Liberals and Greens should adopt these policies and defend their own policies at the next election, rather than blocking Labor's policies. Green voters supported adoption by 5521.

Labor maintains narrow lead over Morgan

A national Morgan poll, taken in September 1622 with a sample of 1,662 people, gave Labor a lead of 50,549.5, unchanged from the Morgan poll of September 915.

Primary votes were 37.5% for the Coalition (stable), 32% for Labor (up 1.5), 12.5% ​​for the Greens (stable), 5% for One Nation (down by 0.5), 9.5% for the self-employed (down 0.5) and 3.5% for others (down 0.5).

The overall figure is based on respondents' preferences. By 2022, electoral preferences were pouring in, with Labor leading with an unchanged number of 5,248.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://theconversation.com/kamala-harris-the-slight-favourite-to-win-us-election-as-she-narrowly-leads-in-key-states-239735 The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

What Are The Main Benefits Of Comparing Car Insurance Quotes Online

LOS ANGELES, CA / ACCESSWIRE / June 24, 2020, / Compare-autoinsurance.Org has launched a new blog post that presents the main benefits of comparing multiple car insurance quotes. For more info and free online quotes, please visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/the-advantages-of-comparing-prices-with-car-insurance-quotes-online/ The modern society has numerous technological advantages. One important advantage is the speed at which information is sent and received. With the help of the internet, the shopping habits of many persons have drastically changed. The car insurance industry hasn't remained untouched by these changes. On the internet, drivers can compare insurance prices and find out which sellers have the best offers. View photos The advantages of comparing online car insurance quotes are the following: Online quotes can be obtained from anywhere and at any time. Unlike physical insurance agencies, websites don't have a specific schedule and they are available at any time. Drivers that have busy working schedules, can compare quotes from anywhere and at any time, even at midnight. Multiple choices. Almost all insurance providers, no matter if they are well-known brands or just local insurers, have an online presence. Online quotes will allow policyholders the chance to discover multiple insurance companies and check their prices. Drivers are no longer required to get quotes from just a few known insurance companies. Also, local and regional insurers can provide lower insurance rates for the same services. Accurate insurance estimates. Online quotes can only be accurate if the customers provide accurate and real info about their car models and driving history. Lying about past driving incidents can make the price estimates to be lower, but when dealing with an insurance company lying to them is useless. Usually, insurance companies will do research about a potential customer before granting him coverage. Online quotes can be sorted easily. Although drivers are recommended to not choose a policy just based on its price, drivers can easily sort quotes by insurance price. Using brokerage websites will allow drivers to get quotes from multiple insurers, thus making the comparison faster and easier. For additional info, money-saving tips, and free car insurance quotes, visit https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ Compare-autoinsurance.Org is an online provider of life, home, health, and auto insurance quotes. This website is unique because it does not simply stick to one kind of insurance provider, but brings the clients the best deals from many different online insurance carriers. In this way, clients have access to offers from multiple carriers all in one place: this website. On this site, customers have access to quotes for insurance plans from various agencies, such as local or nationwide agencies, brand names insurance companies, etc. "Online quotes can easily help drivers obtain better car insurance deals. All they have to do is to complete an online form with accurate and real info, then compare prices", said Russell Rabichev, Marketing Director of Internet Marketing Company. CONTACT: Company Name: Internet Marketing CompanyPerson for contact Name: Gurgu CPhone Number: (818) 359-3898Email: [email protected]: https://compare-autoinsurance.Org/ SOURCE: Compare-autoinsurance.Org View source version on accesswire.Com:https://www.Accesswire.Com/595055/What-Are-The-Main-Benefits-Of-Comparing-Car-Insurance-Quotes-Online View photos