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How will the UK become wetter?

How will the UK become wetter?
How will the UK become wetter?

 


September is expected to be one of the wettest in parts of the UK, with climate change meaning rain is likely to continue across the country.

It's one of our favorite topics of conversation as there's always some volatility in British weather, but the wet conditions are part of a trend where a warming climate is bringing more rain and more severe storms.

The Met Office is expected to announce this week that several counties in England, including Buckinghamshire, Gloucestershire, Northamptonshire, Berkshire, Oxfordshire and Bedfordshire, have had their wettest September since records began.

A Met Office spokeswoman said more counties would be included in the list once the final figures were analyzed in September.

Dr Robert Thompson, a non-scientist at the University of Reading, said this was far from a typical September. September is often summer, but this year it has a particularly autumn feel.

Figures for September for the whole of the UK are not yet available, but for example the Meteorological Station at the University of Reading in Berkshire has recorded 154mm of rain in the month of September so far, with the last day of the month still being included in the September statistics. It will be added. gun.

This compares to Reading's highest September rainfall record of 146mm in 1974. This is an incredibly large amount to break a record, Dr Thompson said.

He said September rainfall across the UK was likely to be above average but not record levels. This is because September in Scotland and Northern Ireland was drier than usual.

The effects of climate change on weather are complex. According to the Met Office, the UK has had on average 7% more rain over the past 30 years than in the previous 30 years. And five of the ten wettest years in Britain since 1836 have occurred in the 21st century, the Met Office reported in July.

wet winter

On average, winters are becoming wetter and summers slightly drier, but paradoxically heavy rains are becoming more frequent.

Rainfall in spring and fall has remained roughly the same. So the waterlogging experienced in many parts of the UK in September may be due to annual weather changes, Dr Thompson said. He said the annual volatility is well over 7%.

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Although we cannot always predict the net effect of climate change, warmer temperatures generally mean more rain. That's because more water evaporates from the ocean into the atmosphere, while at the same time warmer air can hold more moisture. And when moist air reaches land, that water can be dumped as rain.

This is strengthening the water cycle, said Julien Nicolas, senior scientist at the Copernicus Climate Change Service European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. These combined effects could result in stronger, more intense storms in some areas, often resulting in flooding.

For every 1 degree Celsius increase in temperature, the air holds 7% more water vapor. And temperatures have risen 1.2C globally since the Industrial Revolution, and this is predicted to continue to rise by a total of 2.5C to 3.0C before stabilizing.

heavy rain

According to Dr. Paulo Ceppi, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, the effects of global warming have been best studied in relation to heavy rainfall rather than annual rainfall.

Globally, this appears to be increasing at a rate twice as fast as would be expected from the water retention effect alone, possibly due to a feedback loop, the study found.

At a local level, precipitation is also influenced by wind patterns and pressure systems. One of the biggest influences on British weather is the jet stream. The jet stream is the core of the overhead winds that blow from North America to Europe, although the exact path varies.

The jet stream tends to hit the UK hard in winter, leading to low pressure systems and rainy weather, while in summer it tends to arrive more north of the UK, where stable high pressure systems develop, leading to drier weather.

There are predictions that if global warming continues, the jet stream could move further north. This could result in drier summers, but also more thunderstorms, Dr. Ceppi said. Our best understanding is that winters will continue to get wetter and summers will probably get a little drier.

Sources

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2/ https://inews.co.uk/news/science/uk-even-wetter-climate-change-3301830

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