UK weather: record rainfall last month – what's the outlook for October? | uk news

If you thought most parts of the UK were wetter than usual last month, you'd be right.

Ten counties in England experienced their wettest September on record, according to provisional figures from the Met Office.

They were Bedfordshire, Berkshire, Buckinghamshire, Gloucestershire, Leicestershire, Northamptonshire, Oxfordshire, Rutland, Warwickshire and Wiltshire.

Seven of them recorded more than three times the average rainfall in September. These were Bedfordshire (182.7 mm), Berkshire (172.1 mm), Buckinghamshire (176 mm), Gloucestershire (212.2 mm), Northamptonshire (171.3 mm) and Oxfordshire (185.2 mm). Wiltshire (196.5mm).

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Check the weather forecast for your area.

For Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire, September 2024 was the wettest month the county has experienced, dating back to 1836.

Overall, the UK's average September rainfall has almost doubled. This is 95% more than the normal rainfall for that month.

Wales received 39% more rain than average in September.

In contrast, much of Scotland and Northern Ireland recorded below-average rainfall in September.

Image: Waves crashing on the promenade in Folkestone, Kent, on Monday. Photo: PA

What about October?

Many people will be wondering if October will follow suit, and if you live in England or Wales, you'll probably be hoping for something much drier.

As the rain clears across central and eastern England today, high pressure will bring some stability to the weather over the next few days.

Temperatures will be average during the day, but chilly nights are expected under clear skies.

It won't stay dry for long, with the cyclonic pattern returning over the weekend and wind and rain expected.

Uneasy conditions, including showers and prolonged rain, are expected to continue next week.

Destructive rain can fall at times, and computer models show deep areas of low pressure moving in, sometimes bringing strong winds.

Their tracks may be shifted further south than usual, which once again means parts of southern England are more at risk of heavy rain and strong winds.

Remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk may be a factor

For example, some model forecasts predict that the remnants of Tropical Storm Kirk, currently strengthening in the Atlantic, will move closer to southwestern England by the end of next week.

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Looking further ahead, it becomes more likely that something will get stuck and resolved in the second half of October. That would leave us with mostly dry weather and possibly warmer weather, but confidence in this scenario is still very low.

The outlook for September was similar and there is still a chance of it being wet and windy as it never happened.

Long-term forecasts for fall can be particularly tricky due to impacts across the Atlantic.

We may be past the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, but activity there appears to be picking up compared to recent times and this will impact the reliability of UK forecasts.

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