Latest presidential poll: Harris vs. Trump

methodology

The Telegraph relies on a variety of US opinion polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight. Only head-to-head fights between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are considered.

Exclusive polls of registered voters are reflected in our national voting intent tracker, which is updated hourly. The LOESS (Local Estimated Scatter Smoothing) model fits multiple regression on a 5% subset of the data around each point.

Surveys are also weighted according to the ratings FiveThirtyEight assigns to pollsters, taking into account historical empirical accuracy and methodological transparency. Pollsters with lower ratings are ignored.

Sampling error is unavoidable. There is always a risk that the views of the selected population may not be representative of the public as a whole, and therefore individual polls may not accurately depict reality. That's why we conduct opinion polls, and why we depict 95% confidence intervals in shading.

For our predictor of the run of college electoral college votes, we start by taking the average of the last five polls from each state. Due to the low availability of state-level polls, polls of adults, registered voters, and all demographic groups considered likely voters are considered.

If one candidate polls more than five points ahead of the other, the state is considered firmly on their side and that candidate is awarded that number of electoral college votes. If you lead by 0.5 to 5 points, it is said that the country is leaning in your favor. Where the margins are tighter, the state is considered a mess. The total number of votes represents the sum of solid and tilted states.

Our swing state tracker charts the three most recent individual polls for each battleground in 2024.

The approval rating is the national net percentage of respondents who approve minus the percentage of respondents who disapprove. Joe Biden's current presidential approval rating and Harris's vice presidential approval rating are compared to Trump's approval rating on the day of his inauguration.

Vice presidential candidates J.D. Vance and Tim Walz's favorability ratings are a combination of very favorable and somewhat favorable responses nationally (the opposite is true for unfavorable views). The net number is the difference between the two values.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/10/01/us-election-2024-poll-tracker-trump-harris/ The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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