Hurricane activity has picked up as the former Kirk eyes the UK next week.

Parts of the United States and Mexico are reeling from Hurricane Helen and Hurricane John. Both brought destructive winds, but also caused widespread destruction with torrential rain and devastating flooding. In the southern Appalachians and the southern coast of Mexico, muddy or watery scenes appear nearly unrecoverable.

New storms continue to form. Hurricane Isaac moved into the North Atlantic and transformed into a post-tropical depression associated with heavy rain over northwestern Iberia. Tropical Storm Joyce snakes through the middle of the ocean, harassing fish, but Hurricane Kirk is something we can see here in the UK. The cyclone is expected to move east across the North Atlantic and convert to a tropical depression (no longer a hurricane), but could bring very wet and windy weather next week.

The Mexican Hurricane Zone was on Mexico's Pacific coast and made two landfalls in late September, bringing historically heavy rainfall. The southern coast, including Acapulco, suffered heavy damage but is still recovering from the destruction caused by Category 5 Hurricane Otis in October 2023. It was the slow-moving nature of the zone that compounded the devastation as the cyclone dumped more and more rain. Helene also impacted the Yucatan Peninsula before heading toward Florida's Big Bend.

2024 Atlantic Season

Record-breaking Category 5 Hurricane Beryl caused unprecedented destruction across the Caribbean after impacting Barbados and then traveling through St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Dominica, Barbados and Jamaica in early July (ReliefWeb). Disaster zones have emerged due to the ongoing need for essential psychological support. It is critical to address mental health needs concurrently with immediate rebuilding and recovery needs.

Although Hurricane Debby was a Category 1 in early August, Debbie's heavy rains caused widespread flash flooding and river flooding across the southeastern United States, particularly from Florida to the Carolinas, with Charleston receiving a total of 15 inches of rainfall. NOAA

NOAA's May forecast for the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season emphasized that above-normal activity is expected due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the developing La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific, and declining Atlantic trade winds. And less wind shear tends to favor tropical storm formation. Early in the season, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) were near record warm temperatures, helping Beryl's body temperature rise easily. La Niña is not here yet.

According to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) climate driver update for October 1, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was neutral and some atmospheric indicators, such as pressure, clouds and trade wind patterns in the Pacific, were more similar to La Ninia. Over the past few weeks, there has yet to be a consistent, sustained signal. If Rania does occur in the coming months, it is expected to be relatively weak (in terms of the intensity of SST anomalies) and short-lived.

The peak of Atlantic hurricanes typically runs from August to October, with the statistically highest day of activity being September 10th.

In early October, we reached Kirk's K. Due to the remote nature of some of the inland areas devastated by flash flooding from Hurricane Helen, the full story is only just emerging. In North Carolina, washed-out roads are making relief efforts more difficult, and CNN reports that at least 130 people have died and hundreds more are missing across six states. Communication, as well as power and water supply, are in disarray. Unreliable mobile phone networks are causing concern for families who are unable to contact their relatives. Initial debris removal has begun, but the remaining sludge will take months, with torrents of sludge destroying some areas.

Before landfall, you can focus on when and where the hurricane category will be in terms of wind speeds. As we saw in the case of Helene and John, heavy rainfall can be as destructive and deadly as storm surges around coasts such as the Gulf of Mexico. Preparation and reliable delivery of warnings is key.

Some cyclones move inland over the United States and weaken when warm water sources are cut off. Some head north across the Atlantic, such as Hurricane Ernesto, which moved from Puerto Rico to Bermuda in mid-August and then neared Newfoundland before finally converting into a tropical cyclone.

Hurricane Isaac transitioned from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone earlier this week. A secondary low pressure system forming closer to Iberia and the resulting weather front brought heavy rain to northern Spain and northern Portugal during the week. Sometimes these tropical systems affect European weather, even the UK, as lively autumn cyclones with a bit of a tropical twist. There will be heavy showers over the weekend, but a mild southerly air current will blow.

Post Tropical Kirk coming to ECM and GFS models later next week

Hurricane Kirk is attracting attention, with weather models showing a significant (tropical) low pressure near SW UK next week. Today, Kirk lies in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean between the Cape Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. After strengthening to major hurricane status, still over mid-ocean, it will reach much further north, between the Azores and Washington, D.C., by Monday. Various models then move the cyclone east. The unsettled autumn weather will not help at all after heavy rain fell in southern England at the end of September.

Meanwhile, record-breaking heat waves continued in Arizona. The West has been experiencing hot weather recently, but Phoenix broke the record for the highest monthly temperature for October by 6 degrees Fahrenheit on the 1st. The hot weather has continued for more than a week, with extremely hot weather expected to continue through the weekend as high pressure continues to stagnate across most of the western United States. 107F is 41.6C and 113F is 45C.

@NWSPhoenix Highs today in Phoenix and Yuma reached 113F. Not only did both locations break records for the highest temperature for that date, it was also the highest temperature ever recorded for the month of October. #azwx

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