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US Jobs Report: 254,000 Jobs Added as Unemployment Falls

US Jobs Report: 254,000 Jobs Added as Unemployment Falls

 


WASHINGTON (AP) Employers in the Americas added a surprisingly strong 254,000 jobs in September, easing concerns about a weakening job market and suggesting the pace of hiring is still strong enough to support a growing economy.

Last month's gain was much larger than economists expected, and it's up sharply from the 159,000 jobs created in August. And after rising for most of 2024, the unemployment rate fell for a second straight month, from 4.2% in August to 4.1% in September, the Labor Department said Friday.

The latest figures suggest many businesses are still confident enough to fill jobs despite continued pressure from high interest rates.

In an encouraging sign, the Labor Department also revised upward its estimate of job growth in July and August by a total of 72,000. Including these revisions, forecasters in September had predicted only about 140,000 job gains, meaning job growth has averaged 186,000 over the past three months. In August, the three-month average was just 140,000.

AP correspondent Jackie Quinn reports on analysts' response to September's strong jobs report.

There is even more dynamism than we had expected, said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at the banking company Santander, of the labor market. I would say it's solid, certainly not as explosive as what we saw last year or the year before when we were catching up after the pandemic. But the pace of employment growth overall is very healthy.

Employment gains in September were fairly widespread, which is a good trend if it continues. Restaurants and bars created 69,000 jobs. Health care companies gained 45,000, government agencies 31,000, welfare employers 27,000 and construction companies 25,000. A category that includes professional and business services added 17,000 people after lost their job for three consecutive months.

Average hourly increases have also been strong. They rose a larger-than-expected 0.4% from August, slightly less than the previous month's 0.5% gain. Measured over the previous year, hourly wages rose 4% in September, up slightly from the 3.9% year-over-year gain recorded in August.

The economy's progress in controlling inflation led the Federal Reserve last month to cut its benchmark interest rate by a sizable half-point, its first rate cut in more than four years, and said further cuts were likely in the coming months. The Fed has said it wants to reduce the cost of borrowing to help support the job market. In light of the good jobs report released Friday, the Fed is now expected to reduce its key rate in usual quarter-point increases.

The September jobs report shows a nice uptick in labor demand in early fall, said Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank. The U.S. economy sees solid growth in 2024, even as inflation slows toward the Fed's target.

The resilience of the economy is a relief. Economists had long expected that the federal government's aggressive campaign to control inflation, raising interest rates 11 times in 2022 and 2023, would cause a recession. This is not the case. The economy has continued to grow despite ever-higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

Most economists say the Fed appears to have achieved the once-unlikely prospect of a soft landing, in which high interest rates would help beat inflation without triggering a recession.

The economy is weighing heavily on voters as the November 5 presidential election approaches. Many Americans are unimpressed with the sustainability of the job market and are still frustrated by high prices, which remain on average 19% higher than their February 2021 level. That's when inflation has began to soar as the economy rebounded with unexpected speed and strength from the pandemic recession. , causing serious shortages of goods and labor.

Public dissatisfaction with inflation and the economy under President Joe Biden posed a political burden for Vice President Kamala Harris in her race for the White House against former President Donald Trump.

The October jobs report, which the government will release four days before Election Day, will likely be muddled by the effects of Hurricane Helen and a strike by Boeing machinists.

However, across the economy, most indicators appear strong. The U.S. economy, the world's largest, grew at a robust 3% annually between April and June, boosted by consumer spending and business investment. A forecasting tool from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta points to slower but still healthy 2.5% annual growth in the just-ended July-September quarter.

Although most U.S. companies remain cautious about hiring, some say they are having trouble finding workers. At Overthrow Hospitality, which operates 11 vegan restaurants in New York, Drew Brady, the chief operating officer, stopped requiring applicants to have restaurant experience.

Brady is looking for candidates with a passion for food and a flair for theater. Its hourly team now includes actors, students and foodies.

It is difficult, he says, to find experienced restorers. Its latest generation includes a former school principal and a waiter who had no management experience.

I can teach you how to run a restaurant, but I can't teach you how to care, said Brady, whose restaurants employ between 100 and 150 people.

The new approach, he said, appears to be paying off and he plans to maintain it even if more experienced candidates become available.

Circumstances pushed us here, Brady said. But because of them, the light bulb went off. It’s a lesson in adaptation.

Given Friday's strong hiring report, economists say the Fed will almost certainly cut its benchmark rate in November by a modest quarter-point, following its larger-than-usual cut of a half-point in September . The healthier the labor market appears, the less aggressive the Fed will have to be in reducing borrowing costs. Policymakers would like to avoid easing credit so quickly that it could reignite inflationary pressures.

The job market doesn't appear to be collapsing, said Jason Pride, head of investment strategy at Glenmede.

After Friday's jobs report was released, Wall Street traders priced in a significantly higher likelihood of a quarter-point rate cut, rather than a half-point, at the meeting. of the federal government in November: 93%, compared to 68% on Thursday.

At Otis AI in New York, founder Miguel Guerrero said he was optimistic that the Fed's rate cuts, which are expected to lead to lower borrowing costs across the economy, will allow startups like its own to obtain financing more easily to develop and hire.

There's a lot more optimism in the startup ecosystem about getting more funding, he said. Otis AI helps businesses advertise online.

After a series of layoffs in the tech industry last year, Guerrero said, “It’s easy for companies to find top talent right now.

Yet the availability of experienced tech workers can make it difficult for younger candidates to find employment. For a startup, Guerrero said, it doesn't make sense to put an entry-level person there. You won't have time to update them.

____

AP Retail Writer Anne DInnocenzio in New York and business writer Christopher Rugaber in Washington contributed to this report.

Sources

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2/ https://apnews.com/article/jobs-hiring-federal-reserve-inflation-unemployment-economy-87447d5187b37bb0f5cf996e25bad808

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