September Jobs Report: US adds 254,000 jobs

The United States added 254,000 jobs in September, well above expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1% from 4.2% in August.

Forecasts called for the creation of 150,000 new jobs last month. Data from previous months were also revised upwards: August from 17,000 to 159,000 and July from 55,000 to 144,000.

Economists expected the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

The surprisingly high jobs total came about a month before Election Day, as the economy faces even greater scrutiny during the campaign between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.

Harris touted the Biden administration's progress in creating jobs during the Covid recovery period, while Trump sought to portray the economy as a disaster, despite data showing otherwise.

And more relief is likely to come: Last month's larger-than-expected interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is still in effect, which economists say should help boost demand in sectors sensitive to borrowing rates, such as manufacturing, real estate and automobiles.

Forecasts call for another quarter-point rate cut at the next Fed meeting in November and another in December, with more next year.

“This is…an economy at full employment in an economy best described as [in] robust expansion,” said Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP Financial Group, in an article on X.

An important caveat to the report was the response rate to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' monthly survey: At just 62 percent, it was the lowest for a September report since at least 2010.

This could pave the way for a substantial revision next month as more data becomes available.

And hiring was not evenly distributed, but concentrated in construction, health care, leisure and hospitality jobs, and government jobs. White-collar sectors like business services, professional services and finance created a negligible number of new jobs, while hiring declined sharply in the manufacturing sector.

While the economy continues to add jobs at a steady pace, signs of continued weakness in the labor market had become unmistakable before Friday's report.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported this week that the hiring rate fell to just 3.3 percent, its lowest level since October 2013, when the U.S. economy was just beginning to emerge from the Great Recession.

Last week, the Conference Boards watched closely as the consumer confidence survey fell by the largest amount since August 2021, largely due to concerns about the job market. Fewer than one in three respondents now say jobs are plentiful, while nearly one in five say they are hard to find.

In a statement accompanying the release, Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said that while the job market remains fairly healthy, workers face fewer hours, slower wage increases and with fewer job opportunities.

Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute, a labor research and consulting group, said that a few months ago, finding a new job was difficult.

These days, Berger said before Friday's report that he would lower that measure to “very difficult.” Businesses are simply looking to do more with fewer employees, which is also reflected in increasing productivity growth.

This could be a novelty in the new strategy pursued by companies, Berger said. It definitely looks different.

In an email following Friday's report, Berger said a new trend had not yet been established.

“It’s only been a month and a report,” he wrote. “I think the underlying gradual trend of labor market deterioration is probably still in place. The good news is that even if that is true, we now have more room for the Fed to relax its measures and keep the labor market in a relatively decent situation.

And a turnaround in fortunes might not happen anytime soon for job seekers, he said. Although Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they do not want to see further signs of deterioration in the labor market, they also will not allow it to reach boiling point, especially as the The hiring frenzy at the start of the pandemic reopening period coincided with a period of high inflation.

The chance that we arrive at the right time to find a job could take a while, Berger said.

The stress is starting to show in other data: the share of unemployed people who have been out of work for more than six months has increased seven times in the last ten months and now stands at around 23%.

That's about where it was before the pandemic started. But it does indicate that losing a job increasingly means a longer period of absence.

Economic indicators remain positive: layoffs and new unemployment claims remain moderate. And economists say the Federal Reserve's latest larger-than-expected rate cut, with other cuts likely, should help boost activity in credit-dependent sectors of the economy, such as housing, l manufacturing industry and automobiles.

Gas prices are also unusually low, helping to support additional consumer spending.

With luck, the United States should be able to avoid recession, Berger said. But the economy could easily slide into an even more precarious situation.

For job seekers, this precariousness has become total.

There is now a major gap between people looking for jobs and those who have them, Berger said.

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