Former Hurricane Kirk threatens southern England next week – but how common are former hurricanes?

This week there is growing interest in the possibility of Hurricane Kirk making landfall on UK shores in the middle of next week.

Kirk remains a major Category 4 hurricane. Kirk is moving northwest at 11 kt, with a northerly turn expected today as Kirk reaches the western periphery of a high-pressure system over the subtropical Atlantic. This will be followed by a much faster northeast and east-northeast movement from Sunday through 2012. Early next week, when Kirk joins strong mid-latitude westerly winds over the North Atlantic. Kirk will undergo a subtropical transition early next week. This will likely begin on Monday and be completed by Tuesday. Kirk becomes a powerful extratropical cyclone in the northeast Atlantic as it rotates northeast and gains speed over the cooler waters north of the Azores.

Computer models are still split on where to track the subtropical cyclone when it reaches Western Europe by Wednesday, as is expected for this range using these systems, but high-resolution/operational runs are closer to tracking it. At the moment it is closer to southern England or further south than France. The 00z GEFS and EPS (Ensemble) tracks northeast over Western Europe during the week, suggesting a brush close to SE England.

The National Weather Service has provided some 'key messages' about pre-Hurricane Kirk below.

Source: Korea Meteorological Administration

It's not unusual for past hurricanes to visit our shores in the fall. But by definition, hurricanes cannot sustainably reach the UK. A hurricane is a tropical storm system characterized by sustained winds, particularly in excess of 75 miles per hour, and an organized spiral of thunderstorms. It requires several key ingredients to form, one of the most important being a sea surface temperature above 26.5C. Sea waters around the British Isles tend to average in the mid-teens (Celsius) during the summer months, making them less conducive to developing or sustaining tropical systems.

However, strong mid-latitude storms affecting the UK can produce hurricane-strength winds, such as the Great Storm of October 1987. Additionally, deep cyclones, the remnants of hurricanes, could also impact the UK after undergoing a mid-latitude transition.

For the purposes of naming storms, the Met Office states that it retains the names of subtropical storms or hurricanes affecting the UK, but if the criteria for naming a storm due to its effects are met, it will be named Storm Ophelia (for example) Better than Hurricane Ophelia

To avoid confusion over naming, when a tropical storm or hurricane moves across the Atlantic, its name does not change and follows the established practice of being called 'Ophelia before Hurricane', for example.

However, once the criteria for naming a storm is reached in the UK due to its possible impact, the name will not change but it will become known as Storm Ophelia, for example.

We only use names officially assigned by the National Weather Service.

Here are some of the more notable deep lows that have been hurricanes in the past, causing havoc in parts of the UK.

Before Hurricane Ophelia October 16, 2017

On October 16, former Hurricane Ophelia brought very strong winds to western England and Ireland. This date was exactly the 30th anniversary of the Great Storm of 1987. The strongest winds were around the Irish coast, particularly west Wales, with gusts of over 70 to 80 mph in exposed coastal areas and 80 mph at Capel Curig. . The most severe damage occurred across the Republic of Ireland, where three people were killed when trees with most of their leaves still fell. There was also significant disruption in the west of England, with power outages affecting thousands of homes and businesses in Wales and Northern Ireland.

Hurricane Bertha 10 – August 11, 2014

The UK has experienced unseasonable winds and very wet weather in the past due to the remnants of Hurricane Bertha. Lows remained close to northeast England for several days, with parts of northeast Scotland receiving double the long-term average rainfall in August, leading to serious flooding problems. Parts of eastern England were also affected by the storm.

Hurricane Katia September 12, 2011

Hurricane Katia became a Category 4 storm in the western Atlantic on September 5, 2011. Katia then tracked northeast over the North Atlantic, turning into a strong extratropical cyclone covering far northwest Scotland on 12 September. The storm produced widespread wind gusts of 50 to 70 mph across western/northern England and Ireland. The strongest gust of 98mph was recorded atop Cairn Gorm and the lowest gust was 82mph at Capel Curig in Wales. The storm disrupted rail services and closed one stage of the Tour of Britain cycle race. Thousands were without power Monday night. In County Durham, a tree struck a car, killing the driver.

Hurricane Gordon September 21-22, 2006

The gordon originated in the central tropical North Atlantic and became a major cat. 3 The hurricane moved northeast, close to the Azores, causing significant damage to the islands. It then passed a few 100 miles northeast of Iberia, bringing gusts of up to 114 mph in Galicia and causing widespread damage and power outages in northwestern Spain. A small but intense recession, a remnant of Hurricane Gordon, brought heavy rain and strong winds to western England from 21 to 22 September 2006.

Hurricane Lily October 28, 1996

Lili formed as a tropical cyclone over the western Caribbean on October 15, 1996. It slowly crawled north over the next few days, becoming more organized. On the 17th, it reached hurricane strength and turned northeast, increasing its forward speed and maintaining hurricane strength at Category 2 levels. But there it began to weaken and become temperate. The system tracked over the British Isles on October 28, 1996, where it was considered the strongest storm to affect the islands since 1961. It caused wind gusts of up to 92mph in Wales. Waves of 40 feet (12 m) toppled oil platforms in the North Sea, and storm surges of 4 feet (1.2 m) moved up the River Thames.

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