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Netanyahu's dream was a war between the United States and Iran. This is now Israel's nightmare
By rights, this should be a moment of sweet joy for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The work of 40 years is finally bearing fruit: the goal of destroying all terrorist states in the Middle East is near.
Netanyahu has followed a unique strategy for about 40 years, outlined in a book he wrote in 1986 called Terrorism: How the West Can Win (currently $143 or $187 on Amazon UK).
In it, Netanyahu defines terrorism as “the deliberate and systematic killing, maiming and threatening of innocent people to inspire fear for political purposes – a fairly accurate description of what Israel did in Gaza last year and what he is doing now in Lebanon.
Netanyahu's theory of fighting terrorism relies primarily on the use of force. As he explained at a congressional hearing in 2002, on the eve of the U.S. invasion of Iraq: If you take out Saddam, Saddam's regime, I guarantee you it will have enormous positive repercussions. on the region.
Less than entirely convinced of Netanyahu's faith that regime change would bring a flowering of peace and stability to the region, Rep. John Tierney, a more critical voice than you're likely to hear in the sycophantic Congress today, replied: Is this speculation on your part or do you have proof?
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Netanyahu was not fazed: I was asked the same question in 1986. I had written a book in which I said that the way to deal with terrorist regimes, with terror, was to use military force against them.
Like we did in Afghanistan? replied Tierney.
What we saw was something else, replied the Israeli foreign minister at the time. First, we saw everyone leaving Afghanistan; The second thing we saw was many Arab countries, Muslim countries trying to side with America, trying to agree with America.
Afghanistan became a 20-year war that ended in failure. However, Netanyahu's comments about Arab states were not entirely without merit. The more the Israelis and Americans tore the Middle East apart, from Iraq to Lebanon, via Libya and Syria, the more the last pro-Western Arab states drew closer to the United States and Israel.
Invasions and implosions
It's worth repeating what Netanyahu said before the bloodshed and misery of the Iraq invasion to appreciate how his mind works: that of a glorified real estate speculator who wants to acquire so much land as possible by all possible means.
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The use of power is the most important thing to win the war on terrorism [for ‘terrorism’, read resistance to Israeli annexation and US imperialism]. It's like what the three principles of real estate are, the three L's: location, location, location. The three principles for winning the war on terror are the three Ws: win, win and win. The more wins you accumulate, the easier the next win becomes.
“The first victory in Afghanistan makes the next victory in Iraq even easier. The second victory in Iraq will make the third victory even easier, but it could change the nature of that victory. It may be possible for implosions to occur .I don't guarantee it, Mr. Tierney, but I think that makes it more likely.
It turned out that following the disastrous invasion of Iraq and then Lebanon, implosions took place across the region in 2011. These were not without risks for Israel, but the counter-revolutions that put an end to the uprisings prevented any destabilizing force from threatening Netanyahu. vision of a reconfigured Middle East.
In fact, the post-2011 order was more pro-Israel than the one that preceded it. This strategy culminated in the 2020 normalization agreements with four Arab states, implemented without any concessions on Palestinian demands for self-determination.
Then things fell apart.
Gates of Hell
Netanyahu's strategy of containing the Palestinian issue by besieging Gaza and co-opting the Palestinian Authority into a gradual colonization of the West Bank, while seeking normalization deals with Arab states, ended on October 7. Since October 8, following attacks by Hamas, Netanyahu and his allies have adopted a policy of total war against the Palestinians and accelerated colonization in the occupied territories.
With the recent assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Netanyahu has opened the gates of hell. After killing Hezbollah's leader in such a brazen and reckless manner, using dozens of US one-ton bombs to destroy an entire bloc, and also killing a senior Iranian leader in the same strike, an Iranian response would not was only a matter of time.
Netanyahu still has his only asset: the United States and its unlimited arms supply and diplomatic cover
According to Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib, Nasrallah agreed to a ceasefire just before his assassination, with the Lebanese government informing the United States and France, who in turn said Netanyahu had accepted the plan.
It was a lie. Iran's supreme leader had warned Nasrallah days before his death that Israelis were planning to kill him and urged him to flee to Iran.
Speaking at the UN last week, the day he green-lighted the attack on Nasrallah, Netanyahu told assembled UN members that the world body was a swamp of anti-Semitic bile, a house of darkness and a playground for Palestinians.
We are winning, he declared brilliantly as delegates filed out in disgust, leaving a largely empty room. The strategy of win, win, win seemed less effective than he had claimed 22 years earlier. Perhaps this is because after a year of utter devastation and tens of thousands of deaths, Israel has not even been decisively victorious in Gaza.
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It was the same place where he had served as ambassador 40 years earlier, when Palestine had no headquarters. But since June 2024, it has been a full member of the UN, recognized as a sovereign state by 146 of the 193 member states. The General Assembly last month adopted a resolution overwhelmingly demanding an end to the Israeli occupation of Palestine within the next 12 months. The International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled similarly in July. Israel is out of time.
Netanyahu still has his only asset: the United States and its unlimited arms supply and diplomatic cover. As Israeli analyst Ori Goldberg says, for Israel, the rest of the world does not exist, only Israel exists. It's one, plus the United States and a handful of allies, against the whole world.
“There is no place that the long arm of Israel cannot reach,” Netanyahu said after comparing Israel's seven-front war to the conquest that Moses ordered his people to carry out as they entered into Canaan from the plains of Moab. The seven fronts he identified with his cartoons were Gaza, Judea and Samaria (occupied West Bank), Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq, Syria and Iran. Israel is at war with half of the Middle East.
Crossing the Rubicon
Where are all the Muslim and Arab countries that Netanyahu promised 22 years ago would be eager to side with America and Israel in their war against all these enemies? Even favorites such as the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain are resolutely wary of being seen as too close to Israel as it destroys Gaza and rampages in Lebanon.
Maybe this is just an incident, and once Netanyahu achieves another victory, they will come back into line. But this victory is not assured. The early days of the Lebanon War suggest that the decapitation strategy did not degrade Hezbollah's ability to inflict lethal damage and retreat Israeli forces. Lebanon's quagmire could yet swallow up Netanyahu's dreams.
For Netanyahu, the gambler, full-scale war in the Middle East is the last throw of the dice
And then there is Iran. Netanyahu is closer than ever to his long-held dream of a regional war between Iran and the United States. This should be his moment of triumph. With his display of raw power in Gaza, Lebanon and Tehran (with the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in July) shocking and aweing the region and the world, has the time come for victory?
Iran, with its 180 missiles raining down on Tel Aviv and hitting military bases in a targeted attack, has shown it can fight back. The lack of civilian casualties is seen through the prism of Israel's genocidal war strategy as a failure, but it was surely intentional.
Just a day after the Iranian missile attack, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan met with the Iranian president in Doha and said: “We intend to close the book on disagreements forever with Iran. This is not the new Middle East that Netanyahu has worked for so long. This is Israel's nightmare. The emptiness of Israel's military power (no matter how many people it kills) and the full reality of its isolation are now clear to all.
For Netanyahu, the gambler, a full-scale war in the Middle East is the last throw of the dice. A Rubicon has been crossed since the assassination of Nasrallah. But Netanyahu is not Julius Caesar and the Litani River could still be Israel's downfall.
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