Kamala Harris maintains narrow lead in key states in US presidential race

The US presidential election will take place on November 5. According to analyst Nate Silver's aggregate national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49,346.2, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led Trump by 49,346.0. .

Joe Biden's final standing before his withdrawal as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit against Trump of 45,241.2.

In terms of economic data, the United States added 254,000 jobs in September and the unemployment rate fell from 0.1% to 4.1%. The unemployment rate peaked at 4.3% in July.

The American president is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on its population) and its senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is skewed toward Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote victory to be the Electoral College favorite in the Silver model.

In key states, Harris remains ahead by one to two points in Silvers polls in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten), and Nevada (six). If Harris wins these four states, she will likely win the Electoral College by at least 276,262. Trump leads by 0.5 points in North Carolina (16 electoral votes), by one point in Georgia (16) and by 1.2 point in Arizona (11).

Read more: Kamala Harris is the slight favorite to win the US election as she leads narrowly in key states

In the Silvers model, Harris has a 56% chance of winning the Electoral College, unchanged from last Monday's article. The FiveThirtyEight model was more favorable to Harris in September, but now gives her a 55% chance of winning. The odds are close to 5,050 for either candidate, but Harris remains a slight favorite.

There are still more than four weeks until the election, so it's time for the polls to change and for a candidate to have a decisive advantage in the Electoral College come Election Day. Or the polls could underestimate Harris or Trump, in which case the candidate who benefits from the poll error could achieve a decisive victory.

A considerable lead for the LNP in Queensland

The Queensland state election will take place on October 26. A Freshwater poll for The Financial Review, conducted in September 2629 on a sample of 1,067 people, gave the Liberal National Party (LNP) a lead of 5,644, a five-point gain for the LNP since the previous Freshwater poll . survey in July 2023.

Primary votes were 43% for the LNP (up three), 30% for Labor (down four), 12% for the Greens (up one), 8% for One Nation (up by one) and 7% for all others (down by one).

Labor Prime Minister Steven Miles had a net approval of -5, while LNP leader David Crisafulli had a net approval of +15. Crisafulli led Miles by 4638 as preferred prime minister.

The poll focused on Queensland's federal leadership ratings, with Anthony Albanese at net -17, while Peter Dutton was at net zero. Queensland is a coalition-friendly state in federal elections when it comes to national results.

Queensland Liberal National Party leader David Crisafulli is leading in the polls. Quarterly data from Dan Peled/AAP Federal Newspoll

On September 30, The Australian published aggregate data for the four Newspolls conducted from July to September, which had a combined sample size of 5,035 people. The Poll Bludger said the Coalition led in NSW with 5,149 votes, unchanged from the June term.

In Victoria, Labor led by 5248, a two-point gain for the Coalition. In Queensland, the Coalition was led by an unchanged 5,446 people. In Western Australia, Labor led with an unchanged 5,248. In South Australia, Labor was led by 5,446, a gain of one point for Labor.

Poll Bludgers BludgerTrack data shows results by education level. In the September term, Labor led with 5,347 university-educated people, a gain of one point for Labor. Among those trained at TAFE, there was a tie of 5,050, a one point gain for the Coalition. Those without higher education favored the Coalition with 5,149 votes, a one-point gain for the Coalition.

Coalition takes lead in Morgan poll

A national Morgan poll, taken in September 2329 on a sample of 1,668 people, gave the Coalition a lead of 5,149, a gain of 1.5 points for the Coalition since the Morgan poll of September 1622.

Primary votes were 38% for Coalition (up 0.5), 30% for Labor (down two), 13.5% for Greens (up one), 4.5% for One Nation (down 0.5), 9.5% for independents (stable) and 4.5% for others (up one). .

The main figure uses respondents' preferences. But if preferences were allocated based on 2022 electoral flows, Labor led with 51,548.5 points, a gain of 0.5 points for the Coalition. There was an unusually large gap last week between the two measurements.

Solve Middle East Conflict Poll

Voting intentions have not yet been published from a national Resolve poll carried out for nine newspapers on October 15 with a sample of 1,606 people. When it comes to Australia's political response to the Middle East conflict, 22% think Dutton and the Liberals have responded best, 18% Albanese and Labor and 6% Adam Bandt and the Greens, while 55% say none answered better or are unsure.

On Australia's actions, 23% think we should express principled support for Israel, 12% for Gaza and 65% both or neither. Regarding accepting refugees, 52% do not want any refugees to be accepted, 24% would accept refugees from Israel or Gaza, 13% from Gaza only and 11% from Israel only.

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