Markets ponder the possibility of a US no-landing

By Jamie McGeever

(Reuters) – A preview of the day ahead in Asian markets.

Trading in Asia begins Monday with a global macroeconomic and stock market landscape that suddenly looks very different from what it did on Friday, thanks to a series of U.S. jobs numbers that even the most optimistic forecasters wouldn't expect. weren't waiting.

The September nonfarm payrolls report released Friday was unequivocally strong on all fronts and casts doubt on the projected path of U.S. interest rates that investors – and perhaps the Fed too – had begun to speculate on. settle down.

The immediate change in US rate futures markets is clear: a 50 basis point rate cut next month is now completely out of the question, and implied prices are now aligned with the Fed Chairman's baseline scenario , Jerome Powell, of a reduction of a quarter of a point in each of the next elections. two meetings.

Additionally, the total amount of rate cuts expected by the Fed during the easing cycle has also been reduced, pointing to a higher projected “final” rate in 2026 of around 3.25%. Traders could continue to increase this figure this week.

A soft landing? That might apply to inflation, which still appears to be slowing toward the Fed's 2% target, but not to the economy. With such a hot job market, a “no landing” scenario seems more likely than a soft landing.

The report's headlines bear repeating: The figure of 254,000 workers was higher than 73 forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists, and only three out of 56 respondents accurately predicted the unemployment rate would fall to 4 .1%.

The U.S. dollar, bond yields and stocks all jumped Friday, reflecting a broad investor vote of confidence in the U.S. economy.

The dollar index rose more than 2% for the week, its best week in more than two years; Brent crude oil futures rose 9% for the week, their best week since January 2023; and the Dow finished at a record closing high.

The renewed animal spirit is expected to boost investor confidence in Asia on Monday, and Nikkei futures are pointing to a rise of around 2.5% at the open in Japan. However, the tightening of financial conditions due to the notable rise in Treasury, dollar and oil yields calls for caution.

The Asian calendar will see the publication of September inflation figures in Thailand on Monday. Annual headline inflation is expected to stand at 0.8%, well up from August.

Thailand's inflation target band is between 1% and 3%, and inflation has fallen below this lower band every month since April last year except May this year.

The finance minister and central bank governor met last week and will meet later this month to discuss the inflation target. The central bank has resisted repeated calls from the government to cut interest rates.

The story continues

Here are the key developments that could give Asian markets a better direction on Monday:

– Inflation in Thailand (September)

– China's foreign exchange reserves (September)

– Japan's foreign exchange reserves (September)

(Reporting by Jamie McGeever)

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