US Nostradamus poll predicts whether 'October Surprise' will influence election: Harris will

As the 2024 presidential race heats up, the idea of ​​an “October Surprise” is back in the spotlight, with the argument that this month has the power to change the course of the race for the White House. In a recent conversation with CNN's Michael Smerconish, presidential historian Allan Lichtman weighed in on this phenomenon and its relevance to his earlier prediction.

U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris in Milwaukee and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Bedminster, REUTERS/Marco Bello, Jeenah Moon/File Photo (REUTERS)

Known for his impressive track record of accurately predicting presidential election winners since 1984, Lichtman is confident that any unexpected developments in the coming weeks will not change the election outcome in favor of Kamala Harris.

Could an 'October Surprise' Sway the Election Outcome?

One of the biggest myths in American politics is the October surprise, Lichtman told CNN. I never changed my prediction in response to a surprise in October, he stressed. The host stressed that, for more than 40 years, the Nostradamus poll has never changed its forecasts.

Lichtman confidently declares that no last-minute twist will shake his prediction that Kamala Harris will triumph over Donald Trump by becoming America's first female president.

The political historian who uses a unique model based on 13 key factors to make his predictions added: “The keys assessed the general situation of the existing governance in terms of strength and are not influenced by campaign events.

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What is an October surprise?

Typically, an October surprise refers to a bombshell news event that occurs in the days leading up to presidential elections traditionally held in November.

The term became popular in 1980, during President Jimmy Carter, as he fought to secure the release of American hostages in Iran. Since then, various incidents in October, often considered last-minute disruptions, have been referred to as October surprises.

For example, in 1992, when George HW Bush was running for a second term, his campaign received a major blow when his former Secretary of Defense, Caspar Weinberger, became embroiled in the Iran-Contra scandal.

Past examples include the reopening of the federal investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. In 2016, everyone was talking about the fallout from Donald Trump's Access Hollywood tape, then in 2020 about the controversy surrounding Hunter Biden's laptop.

Such events often appear designed to influence the outcome of elections. Currently, Trump and Harris find themselves engaged in a fierce electoral battle, with razor-thin margins in key states making the competition even more intense.

Trump may never return to the White House

Trump made a triumphant return to Butler, Pennsylvania, where he was previously the target of an assassination attempt in July. However, historian Allan Lichtman had earlier suggested that he may never return to the White House again. In a video shared by The New York Times, Lichtman laid out his predictions using his 13 “keys,” which are essentially true or false questions to check the current party's performance.

He said earlier that eight of those keys favored Kamala Harris, while only three favored Donald Trump. Lichtman mentioned that the Biden team's approach to foreign affairs, particularly its involvement in the Gaza conflict, is still unclear and could alter the election results or even overturn some of these keys. But even if both keys to foreign affairs turned out wrong, Lichtman believes Trump would not have enough support to win back the White House.

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By contrast, the competition is extremely tight in crucial battleground states, where neither candidate has a lead greater than three percentage points in any of the seven states, as reported in a New York Times poll. Currently, an average of national polls shows Harris at 49%, while Trump follows closely behind with 47%.

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