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To deter Iran, the United States must rethink its military bases in the Middle East

To deter Iran, the United States must rethink its military bases in the Middle East
To deter Iran, the United States must rethink its military bases in the Middle East

 


Geography is destiny, but when it comes to U.S. bases in the Middle East, that's not necessarily the case. Our current basing structure harms our ability to deter Iran, the primary threat, because it reduces our ability to fight effectively in a high-intensity scenario. We must overcome the tyranny of geography.

In a full-scale war with Iran, these existing bases will be rendered unusable by a sustained Iranian attack. The Iranians can see this and have created a large and highly capable missile and drone force, in part to exploit this situation.

Therefore, we need to re-examine where we are based in the region, both on a day-to-day basis and in an emergency.

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Our presence in existing bases ensures an important assurance mission to host countries. It is therefore unlikely that we will permanently leave bases like Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates and Al Udeid in Qatar.

We should, however, work with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Oman and Egypt to identify bases as far west as possible where we can deploy aircraft, maintenance capabilities, refueling capabilities and weapons.

We have already done some of this work. The Western Base Network was a joint U.S.-Saudi move to evaluate bases near the Red Sea for wartime use. Basic concepts including Oman, Egypt and Jordan were not as advanced, but still under study. The U.S. Combined Air Operations Center at Al Udeid also shifted some of its responsibilities to locations in the United States, significantly reducing air command and control vulnerabilities.

How does this approach, called agile combat employment, work? Based on warnings and indications of war, land-based air assets would be transferred to Western bases from their locations along the Persian Gulf. The number of Iranian weapons that could reach them would be significantly reduced, warning times would be increased, and the Iranians would have difficulty targeting them to determine from which bases American planes were operating.

In the event of hostilities, these planes would take off from distant bases, be refueled en route and conduct combat operations over Iran. Depending on how the fight progresses, they could land and refuel/rearm at existing forward bases in the Persian Gulf, thereby minimizing their time on the ground and increasing their cycle rate. Regardless, they would return to the Western bases to bed down.

However, access to these facilities is not guaranteed. The necessary political decisions are not necessarily taken quickly in this region. The facilities themselves range from bare bases to fully equipped bases. Nonetheless, it is something that is clearly in the best interest of all parties involved.

There is a second element to this new base construction, and that is the opportunity made possible by Israel's 2021 entry into the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Area of ​​Responsibility (AOR). It is now possible to consider settling in Israel in the event of war with Iran. It has the same geographic advantages as a base in western Saudi Arabia or other Arab states. Additionally, Israel has a powerful and proven air and missile defense capability. The fact that Israel is now part of CENTCOM also facilitates training, interoperability and even maintenance. Israel should certainly be at the forefront of possible basing alternatives.

The third element of the basic solution also involves Israel: the increasing normalization of ties with Arab states. This was made possible diplomatically by the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020. This was made operationally feasible by Israel's entry into the CENTCOM area of ​​responsibility. This situation was further reinforced by Iran's malign behavior, which ultimately convinced the Gulf states that a collective approach to air and missile defense is necessary, feasible, and achievable without sacrificing sovereignty. Much of this involves sharing tactics, techniques and procedures and agreeing on what sensor information to share and how to share it, with the United States acting as an honest broker.

We have a clear example of this concept at work. Iran's large and complex attack on Nevatim Airfield in Israel on April 13, 2024, failed thanks to Israeli competence, assistance from the United States and its allies, and cooperation and assistance from Arab neighbors. Information was shared; airspace was shared. In every measurable way, it was a remarkable success.

Deterrence must be continuous; in the Middle East, its half-life can be very short unless systematically renewed. The events of the past two months make clear that Iran can be deterred from reckless and deadly attacks in the region, but doing so requires resources, careful messaging, and a demonstrated ability to fight and win if necessary.

We must now move aggressively to develop basic alternatives that demonstrate that we are prepared to fight and prevail in a sustained, high-intensity war with Iran. Geography is the destiny of some, but not all. Being demonstrably prepared to rebase quickly and exercising this capability frequently will increase the chances of peace in the region, as Iran will be on watch.

General McKenzie, a retired U.S. Marine general, served as commander of U.S. Central Command from 2019 to 2022. He is a Hertog Distinguished Fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and author of The Melting Point: High Command and War in the 21st century.

Sources

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2/ https://www.militarytimes.com/opinion/2024/10/10/to-deter-iran-us-must-rethink-military-basing-in-the-middle-east/

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