Kamala Harris dives into key states, making US election campaign tough

The US presidential election will take place on November 5. According to analyst Nate Silver's aggregate national polls, Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 49,346.5, a slight gain for Trump since last Monday, when Harris led by 49,346.2.

Joe Biden's final standing before his withdrawal as the Democratic nominee on July 21 was a national polling deficit against Trump of 45,241.2.

The American president is not elected by national popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which each state receives a number of electoral votes equal to its seats in the federal House (based on its population) and its senators (always two). Almost all states award their electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis, and it takes 270 electoral votes to win (out of 538 total).

Relative to the national popular vote, the Electoral College is skewed toward Trump, with Harris needing at least a two-point popular vote victory to be the Electoral College favorite in the Silver model.

As of Monday, Harris led by one to two points in Pennsylvania (19 electoral votes), Michigan (15), Wisconsin (ten) and Nevada (six). Over the past week, Trump has won in all of these states in terms of Silver aggregates, narrowing Harris' lead to about a point in these states.

If Harris wins these four states, she will likely win the Electoral College by a margin of at least 276,262. Trump leads by less than a point in Georgia and North Carolina, both of which have 16 electoral votes.

Although Harris is still barely ahead in the Electoral College, her margins have been reduced in states where she leads. As a result, the Silver model now gives Harris a 52% chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 56% last Monday.

This means that the presidential election is effectively a toss-up of 5,050. There is a 23% chance that Harris will win the popular vote but lose the electoral college. The FiveThirtyEight model yields similar results to Silver, with Harris the 53% favorite.

There are still more than three weeks until the election, and polls could change during that time. The polls could also be skewed against Trump or Harris, and in that case that candidate could easily win. With the polls so close in swing states, either candidate could sweep all of those states.

I wrote about the US elections in The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and also covered the UK Conservative Party leadership election, with the far right winning the most seats in the September 29 Austrian election and the Japanese elections on October 27.

Favorability Ratings and Economic Data

Harris' net favorability peaked about two weeks ago at +1.4 in the national FiveThirtyEight poll overall, but has now fallen back to net zero, with 46.8% favorable and 46.8% unfavorable. Harris' net favorability had fallen from about -16 after she became the Democratic nominee, and she gained further ground after the September 10 debate with Trump.

Trump's net favorability has remained stable over the past two months and now stands at -9.4, with 52.6% unfavorable and 43.2% favorable. Harris' running mate Tim Walz is +4.2 net favorable and Trump's running mate JD Vance is -9.6 net favorable. Biden's net approval remains low at -14.0.

Headline inflation in the United States rose 0.2% in September, the same increase as in August. In the 12 months to September, inflation increased by 2.4%, the smallest increase since 2021. Core inflation increased by 0.3% in September, as in August, and by 3 .3% in the 12 months to September.

Real hourly wages (adjusted for inflation) increased by 0.2% in September after a 0.3% increase in August, while real weekly wages fell by 0.1% after an increase of 0. 6% in August due to changes in hours worked. In the 12 months to September, real hourly earnings increased by 1.5% and weekly earnings by 0.9%.

Congressional elections

I wrote about the House and Senate elections that will be held concurrently with the presidential election three weeks ago. The House has 435 single-member seats distributed among the states based on their populations, while there are two senators from each of the 50 states.

The House only has a two-year term, so the last House election was in the 2022 midterm elections, when Republicans won the House by 222,213 over Democrats. Overall FiveThirtyEight polls of the national House race give Democrats a 47,145.9 lead over Republicans, a gain for Republicans compared to the Democratic lead of 46,744.5 three weeks ago.

Senators serve a six-year term, with a third elected every two years. Democrats and aligned independents currently have a majority of 5,149 in the Senate, but they are defending 23 of the 33 regular seats, including seats in three states that Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020: West Virginia, Montana and Ohio.

West Virginia is a sure Republican gain after the retirement of former Democratic Senator (now independent) Joe Manchin during this election. Republicans took a 5.4-point lead in Montana in the FiveThirtyEight poll, while Democrats are just 2.3 points ahead in Ohio.

The Republicans are challenged by independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska, and he is just 1.5 points behind Republican Deb Fischer. Democrats did not show up to avoid splitting the vote. In other senatorial elections, the incumbent party has at least a four-point lead.

If Republicans win West Virginia and Montana, but lose Nebraska to Osborn, and no other seats change hands, Republicans would have a lead of 5,049 in the Senate. If Harris wins the presidency, Osborn will be the deciding vote, because a Senate tie can be broken by the vice president, which would be Walz. This is the most rosy and plausible scenario for the Democrats.

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