Former British Foreign Secretary Predicts Russia-Ukraine War Will End Quickly If Trump Wins | Russia-Ukraine war news

David Owen, London, England The war in Ukraine is often described as a second Russian invasion, a constant reminder of the 2014 Crimean conflict.

Owen, a former British foreign secretary, Labor MP, former senator and EU peace negotiator for the former Yugoslavia in the late 1970s, has updated his latest book, Riddles, Mysteries, Riddles: 200 years of Anglo-Russian relations published in October 2021 following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Al Jazeera spoke to Owen, 86, about Russia and Ukraine, Moscow's ultimate relationship with Britain and why he thinks the US presidential election in November will decide what happens next.

Al Jazeera: After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, you signed a letter published in the Financial Times calling for a new NATO treaty with Russia that would not cause institutional hostility. Nearly 1,000 days after the war began, NATO has moved closer to Russia and President Vladimir Putin has warned of a direct conflict with the military alliance. Are you standing next to the letter right now?

David Owen: Well, I think the relationship has deteriorated significantly. And I regret that.

I don't think it will be possible to return to the kind of productive conversations we had in 2009. [former Russian President Boris] Yeltsin years until the end of the Ukrainian war issue. Now, that could soon become a reality. I think a lot will depend on who wins the US presidential election. But if [Republican candidate and former US President Donald] President Trump was expected to return, but there is little doubt that he will seek to resolve the war in Ukraine and improve relations with the United States, both personally and as he has often said. [Russian President Vladimir] Putin.

Al Jazeera: Ukraine wants to use Western-made long-range missiles to strike deep inside Russia. Should the United States grant Ukraine's wishes?

Owen: Whose hands are we in? [US] president [Joe] Biden. He is still in charge of U.S. policy and has strong feelings about it. It is clear that Biden is extremely reluctant to do so given the current situation where NATO is intervening in Ukraine and escalating tensions.

Al Jazeera: At what point did it become apparent to you that relations between Britain and Russia had reached their lowest point since the Cold War?

Owen: I think it was the second invasion of Ukraine. After the first invasion [in 2014]It was reasonable to hope that Russia knew this was unacceptable. Perhaps we haven't sent a firm enough message. Negotiations took place mainly between the then German Chancellor. [Angela] Merkel and France. The British were largely absent from the conversation.

Perhaps Putin underestimated how NATO countries would respond to an invasion of Ukraine.

Al Jazeera: Conversely, when has the relationship between the two countries been strong and favorable? In your book, you write about the Yeltsin era following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Owen: The Yeltsin era was very positive. The situation has changed dramatically. It was Yeltsin who decided that it was better to make Russia smaller, more economically liberal and stronger. And he encouraged the separation of Ukraine and Belarus.

None of us would have imagined that Russia would move back from the Yeltsin era so quickly. I don't think we've ever done enough, financially or otherwise, to help Russia during the Yeltsin era.

I was doing business in Russia. I was the chairman of Yukos International, a large oil company.

[Editors note: Owen has since ended business ties with Russia.]

We tried very hard, but there was quite a lot of loose money coming in from financial markets in Europe and the US. These were very short-term funds that did not exist to facilitate a smooth transition from communist economies to Western free markets. It was impossible to be completely free from criticism.

We sent some pretty bad financial opportunists to Russia who were unimaginative, intolerant, and actually did not have Russia's best interests in mind and were not people who could help slowly and steadily build the Russian economy. It is much easier to live with the Western economies of Europe and America.

Al Jazeera: Since 2022, pro-Kremlin figures have been threatening Britain, saying Russian nuclear warheads could sink the small island. Could Russia attack Britain?

Owen: The war that Russia might undertake against Britain could not be a purely Anglo-Russian war. This includes NATO. This includes the United States from the moment the first rocket was sent towards the UK, and it includes all European NATO countries.

It is an illusion to think that they can fight separately from us. I'm amazed at how smart people are. [Russias] former president [Dmitry] Medvedev believes he can enter the tactical nuclear weapons discourse.

We must remember when President Putin went to China and had a dialogue with the Chinese. [Chinese President] Xi Jinping has revealed his intentions regarding Ukraine.

Xi said China would not support the use of nuclear weapons to retake Ukraine. That position has not changed, and I think it is very important that it does not.

Al Jazeera: Can Britain's new Labor leader Keir Starmer be as strong an ally on Ukraine as former Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson?

Owen: They have very different personalities. Boris Johnson is more of an intuitive politician. When Ukraine was attacked, he responded quickly and courageously. But I don't think there is any real difference. Of course, it's a difference in style.

Al Jazeera: Several peace initiatives have been touted in recent months, including one for Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said his victory plan includes joining NATO. Is that a realistic position?

Owen: Ukraine is not a member of NATO and that is a matter for the future. Fierce competition from Russia is expected. We must not allow it to become indispensable.

NATO membership has not been handled very well on Russia's borders. We never faced how difficult it would be for Russia itself.

We made a few mistakes on that front. I don't think it would be a good idea to make them [again]Same thing.

As long as Ukraine secures its borders through negotiations, it may be in Russia's interest to maintain NATO membership. There are compromises that can arise in negotiations.

I would prefer Ukraine, not a NATO country, to handle the negotiations. And I think we're very close to that now. This is expected to be largely resolved by the results of the US presidential election.

If Trump wins, there is no doubt that there will be fairly quick negotiations between Ukraine and Russia and a solution will be reached. Even if Trump doesn't win, President Kamala [Harris] Will be open to negotiation. But again, I don't think she would want to directly connect the United States, whereas Trump has clearly said he would.

Al Jazeera: You mentioned the mistakes of Western powers and that NATO did not always take Russia into account in its calculations. Can you explain in more detail?

Owen: In the joy of the Berlin Wall falling [in 1989]Some people have forgotten that we actually have some pretty smart politicians around us. one of them [George HW] bush, [US] President Bush.

He knew that, if possible, he should avoid pushing NATO all the way to Russia's borders. even [ex-US President Bill] Clinton knew this. British people too.

Former Soviet President Mikhail]Gorbachev was suddenly handed over to Yeltsin, and at that stage everything was moving too quickly. And some of the warnings about how quickly NATO could expand have disappeared. For centuries there was a numbness to the way Russia saw itself.

Al Jazeera: Having studied President Putin more closely over the past few years, what can we expect from him in negotiations to end the war?

Owen: President Putin will be judged by how he treats Russia. This man faced a mutiny in the Russian army that followed. [Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin]. They were marching towards Moscow, a breakaway movement. He handled that episode very skillfully. He didn't do anything. He waited to get exactly what he wanted. It probably took about 7-8 months. [Editors note: Prigozhin died in a plane crash two months after the failed coup attempt].

this [Putin] I'm a cautious person. So I think we should respect him.

He is the leader of Russia and is currently unchallenged. He's very likely to be there for the next five, 10, 15 years, so we need to respect him in our negotiations and I believe we can repair that relationship. We made some mistakes. He made a mistake, but I don't believe in this endless war.

They will end up with some territories that were previously Ukraine.

[Russia has hopefully] Having learned better ways to deal with Ukraine, I think they will be able to negotiate a successful border between them and continue to trade.

We have almost moved away from the belief that the boundaries of our former empires have an absolutism about them and that they are crying out for restoration. The history of the world is one of changing boundaries. Because it is often difficult and sometimes inflammatory, we have to be very careful, more cautious than we have been in the past, about not extending NATO boundaries too far.

Finland and Sweden participate in NATO. This was not the action they took. [easily] They got angry.

Al Jazeera: How do you imagine the world after the Russian-Ukrainian war ends? How can relations between Britain and Russia be restored?

Owen: Visit each other's countries. I am now 86 years old. But I want to believe that I can go back to the way I was before I die. [Russia] Talk to old friends and critics and connect with them.

The sooner the better. I don't believe in fooling around once you've decided to mend your relationship and get back to being human-to-human.

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