As US elections approach, Russia, Iran and China step up influence efforts

With two weeks until Election Day 2024, the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) is observing sustained influence efforts by Russia, Iran, and China aimed at undermining U.S. democratic processes. Since our last two reports, the U.S. government has taken numerous steps revealing the cybersecurity and influence activities of foreign adversaries related to the 2024 elections. Most recently, this includes revealing malicious Iranian cyber actors sending stolen and non-stolen materials. former President Trump's campaign public at the two individuals were then associated with President Biden's campaign and the American media, and the indictment of three Iranian actors for the hack and leak operation targeting the Trump campaign- Vance.

We also noted in our latest report that while Iranian actors focused their cyber influence operations on the Trump campaign, Russian actors turned decisively on the Harris campaign once it entered the race. Since then, Russian actors continue to integrate generative AI into their content, Iranian groups intensify their preparations to enable cyber influence operations, while Chinese actors focus on several candidates and members of Congress. Russian actors notably attempted to target the Harris-Walz campaign by attacking the candidates' characters.

History has shown that the ability of foreign actors to quickly disseminate misleading content can have a significant impact on public perception and electoral outcomes. With particular emphasis on the 48 hours before and after Election Day, voters, government institutions, candidates and parties must remain vigilant against misleading and suspicious activities online. Early detection and fact-checking remain critical to countering these efforts and maintaining election integrity.

We discuss this activity in our fifth Microsoft Threat Analysis Center (MTAC) election report released today.

Russia remains focused on Harris-Walz campaign

Russian agents continue to take steps to undermine the Harris-Walz campaign. Russian actors continue to create AI-enhanced deepfake videos about Vice President Harris. In one video, Harris is depicted as making disparaging comments about former President Donald Trump. In another Kremlin-aligned troll farm that we follow as Storm-1516, Harris is accused of illegal poaching in Zambia. Finally, another video spreads misinformation about Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz, gaining more than 5 million views on X in the first 24 hours.

Although most of these videos received minimal engagement, they highlight Russia's continued use of both traditional and AI-generated content to influence the American public and stoke political discord. We have also seen some players shift their content publishing strategy from Telegram to X to reach US audiences.

Escalating hostilities in the Middle East have not slowed Iran's cyber influence operations

Iran has proven that it can carry out multiple operations against different targets simultaneously. Despite escalating tensions with Israel, Iran continues its efforts to influence the American public. More recently, MTAC has observed Iranian activity, disguised as “Bushnell's men,” calling on Americans to boycott the elections because of the candidates' support for Israel. The group's previous efforts to incite anti-Israel protests at universities once again illustrate their use of divisive social issues to sow conflict between communities in the United States.

Additionally, the Iranian cyber group that Microsoft tracks, under the name Cotton Sandstorm, has actively monitored election-related websites and media outlets, suggesting preparations for more direct influence operations as Election Day approaches. The actors’ history of election interference and their cyber influence operations underscore the continuing threat they pose.

China targets disadvantaged candidates and members of Congress

Chinese influence operations have focused on Republican candidates and members of Congress who advocate anti-China policies. This includes campaigns against Rep. Barry Moore, Sen. Marsha Blackburn, and Sen. Marco Rubio (who are currently not up for re-election this cycle). The actors repeated anti-Semitic messages, amplified accusations of corruption and promoted opposition candidates. Although they do not always result in high levels of engagement, these efforts demonstrate that China is attempting to influence U.S. policy at all levels.

Stay vigilant against online threats.

In times of heightened emotion, conflict and competition, manipulated images, audio and video often travel farther and faster from one audience to another than during an average news cycle. Foreign actors have proven agile and capable of inserting misleading content and disseminating it quickly in these moments. We hope that Russia, Iran and China will continue their efforts, including using AI, and may resort to tactics aimed at sowing doubt about the integrity of election results. MTAC will continue to monitor this activity and publicly provide updates to promote education and protect institutions from any form of foreign interference.

Microsoft will not support any political candidate or party.

Previous MTAC Election Reports:

Tags: AI, China, cyber-influence, deepfakes, election, elections, generative AI, Iran, Microsoft Threat Analysis Center, MTAC, Russia

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