Democrats are panicking for no reason, pollsters say the US race is very close | US elections 2024

Less than a fortnight before Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are engaged in a very tight US presidential election race, sparking pessimism from Democrats and confidence from Republicans, even though polls suggest that both candidates have almost equal chances of getting to the White House. .

The Guardian's 10-day poll tracking average shows Harris, the Democratic candidate and US vice president, retaining the one-point advantage over her Republican rival that she had a week earlier, 47% to 46 %.

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Surveys in the seven battleground states are equally jarring and provide few obvious clues as to who will reach the 270 electoral vote threshold needed for victory.

According to polling averages, Harris leads by a single point in Michigan and by less than 1 percent in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Wisconsin and Nevada. Trump has a two-point lead in North Carolina and a one-point lead in Arizona.

Taken at face value, these numbers are no disaster for Harris and hardly a triumph for Trump. If they get the November 5 result, Harris will win a majority of the Electoral College votes.

But we would never realize it given the very different moods in the two camps.

Amid Harris' increasingly apocalyptic warnings that Trump represents fascism and dictatorship in the making, her Democratic supporters have emitted an air of panic in recent days.

A growing number of top Democrats are telling us privately that they think Vice President Kamala Harris will lose even though polls show the toss-up will end in 11 days, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei wrote in Axios Friday.

Our private conversations with Democrats inside and outside her campaign reveal great concern that how little of what she does, says, or tries seems to make a difference. Democrats are already beginning to point the finger at who is more responsible for Harris' loss, President Biden for dragging his feet, or Harris herself. Descent? » texted a senior Democratic official.

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The Trump campaign, meanwhile, seems surprisingly confident, talking in detail about White House publications and policy playbooks for next year.

What strengthens them is evidence that the former president's level of support appears unaffected by his disturbing campaign rhetoric in which he threatened to imprison his opponents, nor by what should have been damaging revelations from his Former White House chief of staff John Kelly said he repeatedly praised Hitler when he was in the Oval Office.

However, these contradictory moods are not justified by the figures, say some pollsters.

Even though new polls show Trump narrowing the gap with Harris and even gaining a lead in some cases, Harris supporters still have reason to be reasonably cheerful.

The latest data from polling organization FiveThirtyEight showed that Trump's recent surge, where his chances of victory have outpaced those of Harris, may have reached its peak. The site's latest odds for a Trump victory, based on a collection of national and state data, were down from 53% on October 21 to 51% to Harris' 49% on the evening of October 24. An Economist forecast also showed Trump's chances falling, from a peak of 56% on Wednesday to 53% the next day.

CNN polling expert Harry Enten put the gap between perception and reality bluntly in a midweek segment on the network.

Kamala Harris, based on polling data, has a very clear path at this particular point, based solely on [battleground] States, at 270 electoral votes, he said. Ultimately, I don't understand the Democratic panic right now, because the path is clear.

The key to this panic may lie in the motivating factors of Harris supporters, among whom there is concern about the prospect of a second Trump presidency.

According to data cited by Enten, about 52% of Harris voters said they would be angry if Trump won, while only 42% of supporters of Republican candidates said they would feel the same about a Harris victory.

“I think Democrats feel like there's a lot more at stake in this election, and that's why they're panicking,” Enten said.

A Morning Consult poll of more than 4,500 voters in seven swing states tended to support this conclusion.

While this is consistent with other surveys that found the two candidates were neck and neck, it shows that pro-Harris voters in every state are more strongly opposed to Trump than the former president's supporters are against She.

In a sign that Harris' characterization of Trump as deranged and unstable may resonate, the poll showed that 49% of voters in the battleground state thought the Republican nominee was dangerous, compared to 34% who said the same. about him. Harris also significantly outperformed Trump in the categories of too old, mentally healthy, honest and cares about someone like me.

Trump, who is 78, was deemed too old by more than half of voters, 51 percent, compared to just 5 percent who said the same of Harris. The vice president, who celebrated her 60th birthday this week, was elevated to the top of the Democratic ticket following concerns about Joe Biden's advanced age and mental acuity, prompting the president to step down of his candidacy in July.

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