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Could Republicans lose the House? Five US Congressional Elections to Watch | US Election News 2024

Could Republicans lose the House? Five US Congressional Elections to Watch | US Election News 2024

 


With the general election in the United States just days away, it seems that the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is grabbing all the attention.

But on Election Day on November 5, crucial battles will also take place for both houses of Congress: the Senate and the House of Representatives.

However, unlike the Senate, where only a third of the seats are up for grabs, all 435 seats in the House of Representatives will be up for grabs this election cycle.

The races will be spread across the four corners of the United States. After all, the House allocates a certain number of seats to each state based on its population size, and each seat must represent a specific district within the state.

Every two years, the House faces the prospect of a reshuffle, with re-elections for all its members.

And this year, the Republican Party is playing defensively, hoping to protect its majority in the House.

Currently, Republicans control 220 seats, compared to 212 for Democrats. At issue is the power to pass or block new legislation. But the House also has special abilities: Only the lower house of Congress can introduce revenue bills and impeach federal officials.

Experts have identified 34 House seats as vulnerable to party flipping in November. What are the closest races to watch? Check out five of the nail biters below.

Rep. Anthony DEsposito tries to fend off a second attempt by Laura Gillen to unseat him [Brendan McDermid/Reuters]
4th district of New York

New York State has long been a Democratic stronghold.

But zoom in on the state and the electoral map becomes a patchwork of red and blue districts. Nowhere is this more evident than on Long Island, a political battleground jutting out into the Atlantic Ocean.

Long Island is home to some of New York's most competitive House races, including the battle for the 4th Congressional District.

The neighborhood is minutes from the urban hustle and bustle of Manhattan, but it has a laid-back, suburban vibe. It is also one of the wealthiest enclaves in New York.

Both Democrats and Republicans have won the region in recent years. For example, in the 2020 presidential race, Joe Biden won the 4th District by 15 percentage points, and fellow Democrat Kathleen Rice handily defended her seat for one final term in the House.

But two years later, new parliamentary elections were held and the seat fell to the Republicans.

Today, Republican incumbent Anthony DEsposito faces a rematch from his rival in this race, Democrat Laura Gillen.

DEsposito is a former New York City police detective who relies on what he calls his common sense record. He criticized Gillen for being lax on crime and immigration, but he was also criticized for allegedly giving a lover a part-time job on the government payroll.

Gillen, meanwhile, said she would push for more law enforcement and border security. I will work with anyone, from any party, to secure our southern border, she said in a campaign ad.

The rivalry between Gillen and DEsposito goes back years: While serving as Hempstead town supervisor, Gillen clashed with the town council, of which DEsposito was a member.

Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris greets outgoing Rep. Don Davis in Greenville, North Carolina on October 13. [Jonathan Drake/Reuters]
1st District of North Carolina:

North Carolina is the newest swing state this election cycle, with Democrats and Republicans nearly tied in statewide polls. Experts believe Harris could be the first Democratic presidential candidate to claim the state since 2008, if the vote goes her way.

But an important corner of North Carolina is also ready for change.

This would be the First Congressional District, located in northeastern North Carolina on the Virginia border.

There, incumbent Democrat Don Davis faces a stiff challenge in a contest that raises questions about race and redistricting.

The 1st Congressional District has long been considered part of the Black Belt of the southern United States, a series of districts where the number of black residents exceeds or equals the number of whites. About 40 percent of the district's residents are black.

The last time the district elected a Republican was in 1883. Since the 1990s, its representatives have also been all black. But these two streaks could end on November 5.

The district was one of four areas facing a lawsuit in December 2023, when voting rights activists argued that district boundaries were redrawn to reduce the power of Black voters.

District 1's new boundaries carved out some black neighborhoods and incorporated other, largely white areas.

Ultimately, the lawsuit was dismissed. But the map could still play a role in choosing the winner. Currently, there are seven Democrats and seven Republicans from North Carolina in Congress.

Davis, an Air Force veteran, is in a tight race against another veteran, retired Col. Laurie Buckhout, a political newcomer. Davis, however, is known for opposing his own party, voting with the Republicans on several occasions.

Rep. Mike Garcia serves a district that includes parts of North Los Angeles [J Scott Applewhite/AP Photo]
27th District of California:

Earlier this month, Trump, the Republican presidential nominee, made a curious choice.

He traveled to California's Coachella Valley in the crucial final weeks of the election to hold a rally. It seemed counterintuitive: after all, isn't California a deep blue state, long held by Democrats?

Despite its reputation as a liberal stronghold, the state could hold the key to control of the House of Representatives, and both parties are investing millions of dollars there in district-level election campaigns.

One of the most prestigious awards is California's 27th District, located on the northern border of Los Angeles.

In the 2020 presidential race, District 27 was one of five regions in California that chose a Republican for representative but also supported Democrat Joe Biden for president.

That leaves him vulnerable to party switching in this year's House race. Incumbent Republican Mike Garcia, a former fighter pilot who has held this seat since 2020, is preparing to fight for his political life.

He faces businessman George Whitesides, who served as NASA chief of staff under former President Barack Obama.

Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces Republican rival Joe Kent in an Oct. 7 debate. [Jenny Kane/AP Photo]
Washington's 3rd district:

Rematch, here we come.

Along Washington state's mountainous coast, right on the Oregon border, lies the 3rd Congressional District, another clash in the battle for the House of Representatives this year.

The race there brings together two rivals from the last electoral cycle: Marie Gluesenkamp Perez and Joe Kent.

In 2022, Democrat Gluesenkamp Perez defeated Republican Kent in a close race, 50.1% to 49.3%. It was one of the closest margins of victory for a House race in the country.

Today, they face each other again and both camps present themselves to voters as moderates.

A member of the centrist Blue Dog coalition, Gluesenkamp Perez has often collaborated with Republicans, including on votes against student loan forgiveness and for short-term government funding.

The publication Politico described her as defying categorization: calling her blue-collar, Bible-quoting, Israel-supporting, pro-choice and millennial.

On his website, Gluesenkamp Perez touts his rank as Washington state's most bipartisan member of Congress.

But Kent is also seeking to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters, despite being considered far-right.

Kent is a retired Green Beret and Central Intelligence Agency field agent, as well as a former foreign policy advisor to Trump. Yet during a debate earlier this month, he pledged to work with both Democrats and Republicans.

“I am more than happy to work with anyone who is willing to secure our borders, stop fentanyl, deport illegal immigrants who have entered our country and balance the budget,” he said.

Rep. Mary Peltola shakes hands during a campaign event in Juneau, Alaska, August 3. [Becky Bohrer/AP Photo]
Alaska General District:

Alaska is so sparsely populated that it receives only one representative in the House.

This means that the entire state is one gigantic congressional district, the largest of any district in the United States.

During the last election cycle, in 2022, candidate Mary Peltola made history. Not only did she become the first Alaska Native to be elected to the House, but she also became the first Democrat to represent the entire district in Alaska since 1972.

To win the seat, she defeated two Republican challengers, one of whom was former governor and vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin.

But the second of these two contenders launches into a new confrontation. Nick Begich III is back in the race in 2024, hoping to unseat Peltola.

Begich, founder of a software development company, is part of a political dynasty in Alaska. His grandfather was the late Nick Begich Sr, who was the last Democrat to hold the House at-large seat before Peltola.

Alaska's single voting system could add another contender to the race, however.

As of 2022, Alaska is one of only two states to use a process called ranked-choice voting for statewide elections. Under its rules, up to four candidates can compete in the general election. If no candidate obtains an absolute majority in the first round, a second round is organized with only the first two candidates.

This system allowed Democrat Eric Hafner to enter the race: he won one of the four places after other candidates dropped out. Hafner is currently serving a five-year, 20-year prison sentence in a New Jersey prison, and he has never set foot in Alaska before.

Nonetheless, the state Democratic Party was unable to remove him from the ballot, even after filing a lawsuit.

Sources

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2/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/26/could-the-republicans-lose-the-house-five-us-congressional-races-to-watch

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