US elections: the special relationship between Britain and America becomes complicated

CNN London —

A former prosecutor takes the helm of a political party in turmoil, promises to turn the page on an era of political chaos and achieves an electoral victory that once seemed unthinkable.

It's the playbook that Vice President Kamala Harris hopes will get her to the White House. And it has already worked in Britain, where Labor's Keir Starmer ended 14 years of Conservative rule in July's election.

The Starmers government's official line is unwavering: London will work constructively with whoever wins the presidential election.

But sources say the similarities between Starmer and Harris' backgrounds, ideologies and paths to power are impossible to ignore and several of Starmer's allies hope the strategy that worked for him will also help Harris.

There are some really striking parallels, Claire Ainsley, Starmer's former executive director of policy, told CNN. The voters Harris needs to persuade and motivate are very similar to the description of the voters Labor needed to persuade and motivate.

Ainsley, who now directs the Center-Left Revival Project at the Progressive Policy Institute think tank, presented the results of Labor's election victory to senior Democratic strategists and pollsters at this year's Democratic National Convention. year.

His trip was part of a broader exchange of information between the two camps, a long-standing and two-way exchange, but one that irritated former President Donald Trump in the final stages of the campaign. On Wednesday, Trump launched an extraordinary row with Labor, claiming through a lawyer that they interfered in the election.

Britain is set to face tensions with whoever wins next month's election, with debates over trade, Ukraine and the future of NATO at the forefront of lawmakers' minds. The election result will have a profound influence on Britain, on British policy around the world and on a whole range of issues which will be vital to Britain's future, said Ed Owen, a former special adviser to the Ministry of the Interior and Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told CNN.

But this week's discussions take a new look at the complicated and delicate special relationship between Britain and America.

For decades, leaders on both sides have gone to great lengths to stay out of each other's politics. As the discourse hardens in each country, this tacit pact becomes more and more tenuous.

Trump's campaigns against Labor stunned Westminster this week. Trump, who frequently uses the threat of legal action as a political tool, has accused Labor of blatant foreign interference in the election, highlighting a campaign trip by a number of party staffers to four battleground states . Labor insisted the trip was taken on staff's own time, at its own expense and did not break any rules.

There is irony in this accusation; Trump's campaign has benefited from the support of notable figures on the British right, including populist figure Nigel Farage and former Prime Minister Liz Truss, whose support breaks with the norm.

We are in a very different world than the one we were in 30 years ago, Truss, who resigned as prime minister after just seven weeks and subsequently lost his seat in Parliament in July, told CNN this week. .

Truss said it was incredibly arrogant of the Labor Party to think it had anything to offer the American people.

But illustrating the blurred lines that political tribalism has introduced into the relationship, she insisted that her own visit to the Republican National Convention and her outspoken support for Trump were not arrogant: because Labor is wrong and that it constitutes an absolute disaster for Britain. .

There are many reasons Democrats might want to learn from Starmer. He and Harris used their backgrounds as high-profile prosecutors to speak tougher than previous center-left figures on crime and immigration and both targeted traditional working-class voters who feel excluded from their country's evolving economy.

Harris has part of the problem Keir had, which is that he is an unknown entity, said Josh Simons, a newly elected Labor MP and former director of the influential Labor Together think tank. A big part of his strategy is reassurance: I'm not a secret radical. And this was obviously our case during the elections.

You can see those lessons being exchanged between the two countries, added Josh Freed, senior vice president for climate at the Washington, D.C.-based think tank Third Way, who attended the Labor Party conference last month. last.

Both Starmer and Harris took leadership of parties in peril, at a time when electoral success seemed a distant prospect. But unlike Harris, whose rise to the top of the Democratic ticket took place just months before the election, Starmer had time; he spent four years steadily overturning Labor's position ahead of the July poll.

And unlike the Democratic standard-bearer, Starmer had the luxury of running against a historically unpopular incumbent earlier this year. Labor didn't win the election this year, the Conservatives lost it, argued Truss, a Conservative. There is no doubt that the population wanted to kick the Conservatives.

Westminster is under no illusion that a Labor government would prefer to deal with a Democratic president; the parties are broadly sister groups, and polls consistently show that Trump is deeply unpopular in Britain.

Their priorities match ours, Labor MP Mike Tapp said of the Harris campaign. Being in sync is helpful, especially with NATO efforts and diplomatic efforts in Israel. You can see this would be a no-brainer with Kamala Harris.

Among party lawmakers, the prospect of a Trump term stirs emotions ranging from deep unease to harsh realism about Trump, part of a trend in many developed democracies toward political leadership populist, far-right, in some cases neo-fascist, Simons said. .

But unlike President Joe Biden, Harris' political career was not built around foreign policy. She is in no way an Anglophile, Simons said. I don't think we can rely on this kind of old latent pro-European sentiment that exists around Biden and his entourage. This forces much more direct confrontation where there are shared interests.

The confrontation could be tougher with a Trump administration. What is most worrying in London is that Trump has hesitated to support Ukraine while it is fighting Russia. A drop in US support for kyiv would mark a sudden rupture between British and US foreign policy.

The serious, sometimes austere Starmer is already also stylistically opposed to Trump. This week's spat with the Trump campaign risks further complicating relations between the men.

Yet some see opportunity in the unpredictability of a possible second Trump term. Reflecting on his first term in office, Owen said: “You had a much more dynamic situation, where, in reality, things were up for grabs. You could influence American politics.

A malleable foreign policy might worry U.S. diplomats, but it would also create opportunities for allies. We can handle (Trump’s unpredictability). We can work with him, Tapp said.

And Britain has instruments in its centuries-old arsenal that could help sweeten the deal with a former president who still speaks admiringly of British history, and the late Queen Elizabeth II. There are many things the UK has to offer that resonate with (Trump), Freed said. The meeting with the king is a very useful tool for the United Kingdom. The pomp and circumstance are very similar.

But a second term for Trump would constitute a decisive turning point for the West. Many in Britain still wince at the memory of the first. What happened on January 6 (2021) was quite devastating for the world, Tapp said.

The German Olaf Scholz and the Australian Anthony Albanese, meanwhile, will face re-election difficulties. Frances Emmanuel Macron saw her authority hampered in July. If Harris loses, Starmer could become the last centrist in the room.

The question for Starmer then is: what does a Trump-led America look like and how much pressure is the UK under to become the leader of global centrism and global democracy? said Libéré.

There aren't many places left that have very stable democracies led by center-left political parties. It would be up to (Starmer) and the Labor Party whether they like it or not.

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